(What’s Left of) Our Economy: As Trump Tariffs Came on, U.S. Manufacturing Reversed a Production Decline
This affects the entire country.
If you’re bored with good news, then you’ll find today’s Federal Reserve report on after-inflation U.S. manufacturing output awfully boring. Because the new data come on top of a group of recent excellent official American economy releases that has included overall economic growth, labor productivity, initial jobless claims, consumer inflation, wholesale inflation, and trade flows. And even though the last jobs report was more mixed, it still recorded that the overall unemployment rate edged lower from a downwardly revised (and already pretty low) 4.5 percent to 4.4 percent.
According to the new Fed release, real U.S.-based manufacturing output rose by 0.20 percent on- month in December. Moreover, revisions were a net positive. November’s initially reported 0.03 percent growth figure was upgraded to 0.36 percent expansion – offsetting October’s downgrade from a 0.37 percent sequential slump to one of 0.55 percent.
Further, these December results show that in inflation-adjusted terms, U.S. manufacturers have turned a corner during this year of major Trump tariffs. Between February (the first full month of President Trump’s second term) through December, domestic industry raised its production by 1.26 percent. During the same pre-Trump tariff period of 2024, constant dollar manufacturing output fell by 0.83 percent.
Another way to look at this progress: As of December 2024, since its all-time peak at the end of 2007, American manufacturing output had dropped by 9.81 percent after inflation. The decline as of the end of last year? Down 7.91 percent.
The biggest monthly after-inflation December manufacturing output winners among the major manufacturing sub-categories tracked by the Fed were:
>the heavily tariffed primary metals sector, which boosted its monthly constant dollar production by 2.40 percent in December. That was its best such result since June’s 2.98 percent and represented the first sequential advance in three months. That December growth does follow a November result that was revised way down to a 0.27 percent dip to a decrease of 2.14 percent. But under Trump 2.0, steel and aluminum and other metals companies have increased their price-adjusted production by a robust 3.82 percent;
>petroleum and coal products manufacturers increased their inflation-adjusted monthly output by 1.78 percent in December – an especially impressive performance following a blazing 3.45 percent November monthly gain;
>the electrical equipment, appliance, and components category saw its after inflation production climb for the second consecutive month, and the 1.66 percent advance was its best since August’s 2.19 percent; and
>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment producers, whose real output rose by 1.55 percent month-to-month in December. November’s results were significantly downgraded from an initially reported 1.11 increase to a 1.32 percent decrease. But between February and December, these companies’ constant dollar production soared by 9.64 percent.
The biggest production losers in December among those big sub-categories monitored by the Fed were:
>wood product manufacturing, where inflation …
This affects the entire country.
If you’re bored with good news, then you’ll find today’s Federal Reserve report on after-inflation U.S. manufacturing output awfully boring. Because the new data come on top of a group of recent excellent official American economy releases that has included overall economic growth, labor productivity, initial jobless claims, consumer inflation, wholesale inflation, and trade flows. And even though the last jobs report was more mixed, it still recorded that the overall unemployment rate edged lower from a downwardly revised (and already pretty low) 4.5 percent to 4.4 percent.
According to the new Fed release, real U.S.-based manufacturing output rose by 0.20 percent on- month in December. Moreover, revisions were a net positive. November’s initially reported 0.03 percent growth figure was upgraded to 0.36 percent expansion – offsetting October’s downgrade from a 0.37 percent sequential slump to one of 0.55 percent.
Further, these December results show that in inflation-adjusted terms, U.S. manufacturers have turned a corner during this year of major Trump tariffs. Between February (the first full month of President Trump’s second term) through December, domestic industry raised its production by 1.26 percent. During the same pre-Trump tariff period of 2024, constant dollar manufacturing output fell by 0.83 percent.
Another way to look at this progress: As of December 2024, since its all-time peak at the end of 2007, American manufacturing output had dropped by 9.81 percent after inflation. The decline as of the end of last year? Down 7.91 percent.
The biggest monthly after-inflation December manufacturing output winners among the major manufacturing sub-categories tracked by the Fed were:
>the heavily tariffed primary metals sector, which boosted its monthly constant dollar production by 2.40 percent in December. That was its best such result since June’s 2.98 percent and represented the first sequential advance in three months. That December growth does follow a November result that was revised way down to a 0.27 percent dip to a decrease of 2.14 percent. But under Trump 2.0, steel and aluminum and other metals companies have increased their price-adjusted production by a robust 3.82 percent;
>petroleum and coal products manufacturers increased their inflation-adjusted monthly output by 1.78 percent in December – an especially impressive performance following a blazing 3.45 percent November monthly gain;
>the electrical equipment, appliance, and components category saw its after inflation production climb for the second consecutive month, and the 1.66 percent advance was its best since August’s 2.19 percent; and
>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment producers, whose real output rose by 1.55 percent month-to-month in December. November’s results were significantly downgraded from an initially reported 1.11 increase to a 1.32 percent decrease. But between February and December, these companies’ constant dollar production soared by 9.64 percent.
The biggest production losers in December among those big sub-categories monitored by the Fed were:
>wood product manufacturing, where inflation …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: As Trump Tariffs Came on, U.S. Manufacturing Reversed a Production Decline
This affects the entire country.
If you’re bored with good news, then you’ll find today’s Federal Reserve report on after-inflation U.S. manufacturing output awfully boring. Because the new data come on top of a group of recent excellent official American economy releases that has included overall economic growth, labor productivity, initial jobless claims, consumer inflation, wholesale inflation, and trade flows. And even though the last jobs report was more mixed, it still recorded that the overall unemployment rate edged lower from a downwardly revised (and already pretty low) 4.5 percent to 4.4 percent.
According to the new Fed release, real U.S.-based manufacturing output rose by 0.20 percent on- month in December. Moreover, revisions were a net positive. November’s initially reported 0.03 percent growth figure was upgraded to 0.36 percent expansion – offsetting October’s downgrade from a 0.37 percent sequential slump to one of 0.55 percent.
Further, these December results show that in inflation-adjusted terms, U.S. manufacturers have turned a corner during this year of major Trump tariffs. Between February (the first full month of President Trump’s second term) through December, domestic industry raised its production by 1.26 percent. During the same pre-Trump tariff period of 2024, constant dollar manufacturing output fell by 0.83 percent.
Another way to look at this progress: As of December 2024, since its all-time peak at the end of 2007, American manufacturing output had dropped by 9.81 percent after inflation. The decline as of the end of last year? Down 7.91 percent.
The biggest monthly after-inflation December manufacturing output winners among the major manufacturing sub-categories tracked by the Fed were:
>the heavily tariffed primary metals sector, which boosted its monthly constant dollar production by 2.40 percent in December. That was its best such result since June’s 2.98 percent and represented the first sequential advance in three months. That December growth does follow a November result that was revised way down to a 0.27 percent dip to a decrease of 2.14 percent. But under Trump 2.0, steel and aluminum and other metals companies have increased their price-adjusted production by a robust 3.82 percent;
>petroleum and coal products manufacturers increased their inflation-adjusted monthly output by 1.78 percent in December – an especially impressive performance following a blazing 3.45 percent November monthly gain;
>the electrical equipment, appliance, and components category saw its after inflation production climb for the second consecutive month, and the 1.66 percent advance was its best since August’s 2.19 percent; and
>aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment producers, whose real output rose by 1.55 percent month-to-month in December. November’s results were significantly downgraded from an initially reported 1.11 increase to a 1.32 percent decrease. But between February and December, these companies’ constant dollar production soared by 9.64 percent.
The biggest production losers in December among those big sub-categories monitored by the Fed were:
>wood product manufacturing, where inflation …
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