(What’s Left of) Our Economy: No Big Immigration Crackdown Boost for U.S. Workers Yet
Every delay has consequences.
OK – the last few days finally have seen an official report on the U.S. economy that hasn’t been excellent. Principally, the latest release on worker earnings showed that price-adjusted wages either remained flat or dipped sequentially by various measures in December.
They also revealed a seemingly paradoxical development on this front: During Trump 2.0 (since February – the first full month of the president’s second term), when it comes to blue-collar workers, this measure of compensation didn’t rise faster than it did during the comparable 2024 months during the Biden administration. In fact, by both measures, it grew more slowly – and in one case, significantly so.
I say “paradoxical” because I thought that the Trump 2.0 border security and deportation policies would shrink the foreign-born labor force enough to increase business competition for workers – thereby putting upward pressure on wages. And of course, those developments would have contrasted strikingly with that Biden period, which like the rest of the former president’s administration, was Open Borders-friendly.
In addition, I thought that this effect would be especially pronounced for blue-collar employees, since surely the vast majority of the illegal aliens being deported or leaving voluntarily who are of working age would fall into this category. And ditto for most of the illegals no longer streaming into the United States because of the president’s highly effective border security crackdown.
But that’s not what the numbers say at this point.
From the standpoint of immigration restrictionists like me, the most encouraging result came for average after-inflation weekly wages for all private sector workers. (The U.S. government’s wage figures only cover private sector workers because their pay is mainly determined by market forces, not politicians’ decisions.) Between February and December of last year, they were up by 1.14 percent. During the comparable Biden 2024 span, they rose by a weaker 0.87 percent.
When it comes to blue-collar workers, though, the wage results flipped. During Trump 2.0 so far, they’ve risen by 1.19 percent. But during the comparable Biden period, they were up by a faster 1.36 percent.
I’ve posted till now on weekly real wages (see, e.g., here) because they’re the best measure of the earnings that workers actually take home in their paychecks. But it’s worth noting that the hourly wage figures are actually slightly worse during Trump 2.0.
For all private sector workers between last February and December, they did increase by 1.08 percent. But that result slightly trailed the 1.08 percent advance recorded during the same Biden 2024 months.
And for blue-collar workers, the difference was even greater. Their constant dollar hourly wages have improved by just 0.81 percent under Trump 2.0 – much more slowly than the 1.44 percent increase achieved during the comparable Biden 2024 months.
One reason for these findings is probably that, despite the unmistakable drop in the numbers of foreign-born workers, the overall workforce continued growing under Trump 2.0, according to the main measures. So the competition among businesses …
Every delay has consequences.
OK – the last few days finally have seen an official report on the U.S. economy that hasn’t been excellent. Principally, the latest release on worker earnings showed that price-adjusted wages either remained flat or dipped sequentially by various measures in December.
They also revealed a seemingly paradoxical development on this front: During Trump 2.0 (since February – the first full month of the president’s second term), when it comes to blue-collar workers, this measure of compensation didn’t rise faster than it did during the comparable 2024 months during the Biden administration. In fact, by both measures, it grew more slowly – and in one case, significantly so.
I say “paradoxical” because I thought that the Trump 2.0 border security and deportation policies would shrink the foreign-born labor force enough to increase business competition for workers – thereby putting upward pressure on wages. And of course, those developments would have contrasted strikingly with that Biden period, which like the rest of the former president’s administration, was Open Borders-friendly.
In addition, I thought that this effect would be especially pronounced for blue-collar employees, since surely the vast majority of the illegal aliens being deported or leaving voluntarily who are of working age would fall into this category. And ditto for most of the illegals no longer streaming into the United States because of the president’s highly effective border security crackdown.
But that’s not what the numbers say at this point.
From the standpoint of immigration restrictionists like me, the most encouraging result came for average after-inflation weekly wages for all private sector workers. (The U.S. government’s wage figures only cover private sector workers because their pay is mainly determined by market forces, not politicians’ decisions.) Between February and December of last year, they were up by 1.14 percent. During the comparable Biden 2024 span, they rose by a weaker 0.87 percent.
When it comes to blue-collar workers, though, the wage results flipped. During Trump 2.0 so far, they’ve risen by 1.19 percent. But during the comparable Biden period, they were up by a faster 1.36 percent.
I’ve posted till now on weekly real wages (see, e.g., here) because they’re the best measure of the earnings that workers actually take home in their paychecks. But it’s worth noting that the hourly wage figures are actually slightly worse during Trump 2.0.
For all private sector workers between last February and December, they did increase by 1.08 percent. But that result slightly trailed the 1.08 percent advance recorded during the same Biden 2024 months.
And for blue-collar workers, the difference was even greater. Their constant dollar hourly wages have improved by just 0.81 percent under Trump 2.0 – much more slowly than the 1.44 percent increase achieved during the comparable Biden 2024 months.
One reason for these findings is probably that, despite the unmistakable drop in the numbers of foreign-born workers, the overall workforce continued growing under Trump 2.0, according to the main measures. So the competition among businesses …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: No Big Immigration Crackdown Boost for U.S. Workers Yet
Every delay has consequences.
OK – the last few days finally have seen an official report on the U.S. economy that hasn’t been excellent. Principally, the latest release on worker earnings showed that price-adjusted wages either remained flat or dipped sequentially by various measures in December.
They also revealed a seemingly paradoxical development on this front: During Trump 2.0 (since February – the first full month of the president’s second term), when it comes to blue-collar workers, this measure of compensation didn’t rise faster than it did during the comparable 2024 months during the Biden administration. In fact, by both measures, it grew more slowly – and in one case, significantly so.
I say “paradoxical” because I thought that the Trump 2.0 border security and deportation policies would shrink the foreign-born labor force enough to increase business competition for workers – thereby putting upward pressure on wages. And of course, those developments would have contrasted strikingly with that Biden period, which like the rest of the former president’s administration, was Open Borders-friendly.
In addition, I thought that this effect would be especially pronounced for blue-collar employees, since surely the vast majority of the illegal aliens being deported or leaving voluntarily who are of working age would fall into this category. And ditto for most of the illegals no longer streaming into the United States because of the president’s highly effective border security crackdown.
But that’s not what the numbers say at this point.
From the standpoint of immigration restrictionists like me, the most encouraging result came for average after-inflation weekly wages for all private sector workers. (The U.S. government’s wage figures only cover private sector workers because their pay is mainly determined by market forces, not politicians’ decisions.) Between February and December of last year, they were up by 1.14 percent. During the comparable Biden 2024 span, they rose by a weaker 0.87 percent.
When it comes to blue-collar workers, though, the wage results flipped. During Trump 2.0 so far, they’ve risen by 1.19 percent. But during the comparable Biden period, they were up by a faster 1.36 percent.
I’ve posted till now on weekly real wages (see, e.g., here) because they’re the best measure of the earnings that workers actually take home in their paychecks. But it’s worth noting that the hourly wage figures are actually slightly worse during Trump 2.0.
For all private sector workers between last February and December, they did increase by 1.08 percent. But that result slightly trailed the 1.08 percent advance recorded during the same Biden 2024 months.
And for blue-collar workers, the difference was even greater. Their constant dollar hourly wages have improved by just 0.81 percent under Trump 2.0 – much more slowly than the 1.44 percent increase achieved during the comparable Biden 2024 months.
One reason for these findings is probably that, despite the unmistakable drop in the numbers of foreign-born workers, the overall workforce continued growing under Trump 2.0, according to the main measures. So the competition among businesses …
0 Comments
0 Shares
126 Views
0 Reviews
