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Calum Davies: Wales is now more likely to wear Plaid than teal – but certainly not red
How is this acceptable?

Calum Davies is a Conservative councillor in Cardiff and a candidate for the Senedd next year.

It is becoming increasingly clear that 2026 is going to be Plaid Cymru’s year.

It remains to be seen whether they or Reform will take the largest share of the vote in May’s Senedd election, but the separatists can approach the poll in full knowledge that they are certain to come first or a close second unless something significant shifts the public mood dramatically.

Of course, this is of great concern to right-leaning unionists. We are soon to see a hard-left, Welsh nationalist party achieve its highest-ever share of the vote and seats in Cardiff Bay. Regardless of whether Plaid or Reform come first, the prospect of a government led by the former is becoming a practical certainty.

The new Senedd electoral system was brought in as part of an undemocratic, mandate-less bargain between a partisan Presiding Officer (who will likely be a Plaid minister in six months’ time) and the nationalistic, then-First Minister Mark Drakeford. The former Welsh Labour leader wanted to commit Wales to a perma-coalition of the two leftist parties, cementing a British-sceptic majority in the Senedd for decades to come. Only, at the time, Labour thought they’d always be running the show.

However, a year and a half of incompetence and directionless government under Sir Keir Starmer and the sudden rise of Reform has meant coming first in the Senedd election is no longer a guarantee for Labour. A YouGov poll in December but their support at little over 10 per cent, the same as the Welsh Conservatives – the opposite of a highwater mark for us too.

So not only is Labour’s downfall a result of its collusion with nationalists, but the driver behind Plaid’s growth in support too. For years, we were told that Labour was playing a brilliant game by “parking their tanks on Plaid Cymru’s lawn” by engaging in a detached and, at times, unashamedly confrontational approach with the British state. This was portrayed as genius political strategy that ensured Labour dominance in Wales.

Doing this helped Labour in the short-term but was a time-bomb for both their party and Unionism. Labour’s support is collapsing because they spent 14 years saying the only reason everything is going terribly – from the worst-performing NHS in Britain, the lowest school standards in the UK, and no improvement in relative economic performance – is because of the Tories. This is despite health, education, and economic development all being devolved.

With no Conservative government left to blame, they’ve been exposed. Meanwhile, Labour has abandoned all pretence of British national feeling, with Drakeford enthusiastically describing his loyalty to this country as purely transactional, which is probably worse …
Calum Davies: Wales is now more likely to wear Plaid than teal – but certainly not red How is this acceptable? Calum Davies is a Conservative councillor in Cardiff and a candidate for the Senedd next year. It is becoming increasingly clear that 2026 is going to be Plaid Cymru’s year. It remains to be seen whether they or Reform will take the largest share of the vote in May’s Senedd election, but the separatists can approach the poll in full knowledge that they are certain to come first or a close second unless something significant shifts the public mood dramatically. Of course, this is of great concern to right-leaning unionists. We are soon to see a hard-left, Welsh nationalist party achieve its highest-ever share of the vote and seats in Cardiff Bay. Regardless of whether Plaid or Reform come first, the prospect of a government led by the former is becoming a practical certainty. The new Senedd electoral system was brought in as part of an undemocratic, mandate-less bargain between a partisan Presiding Officer (who will likely be a Plaid minister in six months’ time) and the nationalistic, then-First Minister Mark Drakeford. The former Welsh Labour leader wanted to commit Wales to a perma-coalition of the two leftist parties, cementing a British-sceptic majority in the Senedd for decades to come. Only, at the time, Labour thought they’d always be running the show. However, a year and a half of incompetence and directionless government under Sir Keir Starmer and the sudden rise of Reform has meant coming first in the Senedd election is no longer a guarantee for Labour. A YouGov poll in December but their support at little over 10 per cent, the same as the Welsh Conservatives – the opposite of a highwater mark for us too. So not only is Labour’s downfall a result of its collusion with nationalists, but the driver behind Plaid’s growth in support too. For years, we were told that Labour was playing a brilliant game by “parking their tanks on Plaid Cymru’s lawn” by engaging in a detached and, at times, unashamedly confrontational approach with the British state. This was portrayed as genius political strategy that ensured Labour dominance in Wales. Doing this helped Labour in the short-term but was a time-bomb for both their party and Unionism. Labour’s support is collapsing because they spent 14 years saying the only reason everything is going terribly – from the worst-performing NHS in Britain, the lowest school standards in the UK, and no improvement in relative economic performance – is because of the Tories. This is despite health, education, and economic development all being devolved. With no Conservative government left to blame, they’ve been exposed. Meanwhile, Labour has abandoned all pretence of British national feeling, with Drakeford enthusiastically describing his loyalty to this country as purely transactional, which is probably worse …
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