Peter Franklin: What would be the best outcome of the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Why resist verification?
Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.
When Alan Clark died in 1999, his vacant seat became the subject of immediate, if unseemly, speculation. The big question was whether Michael Portillo — the highest profile casualty of the 1997 Tory defeat — would stand in the looming by-election and thus make an early return to Parliament.
William Hague, who was the Conservative leader at the time, must have feared the worst. Not only was Portillo a “big beast” he’d also become the idol of the party’s modernisers. Elements of that faction were already conspiring against Hague — and with Portillo back in the Commons they’d have an alternative leader ready-to-go.
Hague’s allies might have been tempted to fix the selection process against his rival — choosing some unthreatening local councillor instead. And yet there was no hint of any such skullduggery. Portillo was duly selected as the Conservative candidate — and, on the 25 November 1999, elected as the new MP for Kensington and Chelsea with 56 per cent of the vote. Back then, I was a minor functionary in Conservative Central Office and witnessed all the stops being pulled out to aid his victory.
Nor was that the end of Hague’s magnanimity. Within a couple of months, he reshuffled the Shadow Cabinet to give Portillo the biggest possible promotion — to Shadow Chancellor and deputy leader of the party.
In short, faced with a potential challenge to his position, William Hague chose the path of honour and open-handedness. A quarter of a century later, the same cannot be said for Keir Starmer — whose place-persons on the Labour National Executive Committee have blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
These days, by-elections are few and far between. As for a contest where Labour stands a chance of winning, those are rare as hen’s teeth. To compound the sheer flukiness of the situation, Gorton and Denton is in Greater Manchester, of which Burnham is the popular metropolitan mayor. So for Starmer to stand in his way doesn’t just offend against the British sense of fair play, but against fate itself.
Instead of doing the big thing, the Prime Minister has chosen the path of pettiness. If Labour loses in Gorton and Denton then then the blame will attach fairly-and-squarely to him and his right hand man, Morgan McSweeney.
But just how likely is a Labour defeat — and, by objective psephological standards, just how big a deal would it be?
Let’s start by getting one thing straight: Gorton and Denton is not part of the “Red Wall”.
Yes, it’s north of the Watford Gap and not an inner city constituency, but the Red Wall concept (as originally defined by James Kanagasooriam) applies specifically to marginal seats where the Conservatives have regularly failed to turn promising …
Why resist verification?
Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.
When Alan Clark died in 1999, his vacant seat became the subject of immediate, if unseemly, speculation. The big question was whether Michael Portillo — the highest profile casualty of the 1997 Tory defeat — would stand in the looming by-election and thus make an early return to Parliament.
William Hague, who was the Conservative leader at the time, must have feared the worst. Not only was Portillo a “big beast” he’d also become the idol of the party’s modernisers. Elements of that faction were already conspiring against Hague — and with Portillo back in the Commons they’d have an alternative leader ready-to-go.
Hague’s allies might have been tempted to fix the selection process against his rival — choosing some unthreatening local councillor instead. And yet there was no hint of any such skullduggery. Portillo was duly selected as the Conservative candidate — and, on the 25 November 1999, elected as the new MP for Kensington and Chelsea with 56 per cent of the vote. Back then, I was a minor functionary in Conservative Central Office and witnessed all the stops being pulled out to aid his victory.
Nor was that the end of Hague’s magnanimity. Within a couple of months, he reshuffled the Shadow Cabinet to give Portillo the biggest possible promotion — to Shadow Chancellor and deputy leader of the party.
In short, faced with a potential challenge to his position, William Hague chose the path of honour and open-handedness. A quarter of a century later, the same cannot be said for Keir Starmer — whose place-persons on the Labour National Executive Committee have blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
These days, by-elections are few and far between. As for a contest where Labour stands a chance of winning, those are rare as hen’s teeth. To compound the sheer flukiness of the situation, Gorton and Denton is in Greater Manchester, of which Burnham is the popular metropolitan mayor. So for Starmer to stand in his way doesn’t just offend against the British sense of fair play, but against fate itself.
Instead of doing the big thing, the Prime Minister has chosen the path of pettiness. If Labour loses in Gorton and Denton then then the blame will attach fairly-and-squarely to him and his right hand man, Morgan McSweeney.
But just how likely is a Labour defeat — and, by objective psephological standards, just how big a deal would it be?
Let’s start by getting one thing straight: Gorton and Denton is not part of the “Red Wall”.
Yes, it’s north of the Watford Gap and not an inner city constituency, but the Red Wall concept (as originally defined by James Kanagasooriam) applies specifically to marginal seats where the Conservatives have regularly failed to turn promising …
Peter Franklin: What would be the best outcome of the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Why resist verification?
Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.
When Alan Clark died in 1999, his vacant seat became the subject of immediate, if unseemly, speculation. The big question was whether Michael Portillo — the highest profile casualty of the 1997 Tory defeat — would stand in the looming by-election and thus make an early return to Parliament.
William Hague, who was the Conservative leader at the time, must have feared the worst. Not only was Portillo a “big beast” he’d also become the idol of the party’s modernisers. Elements of that faction were already conspiring against Hague — and with Portillo back in the Commons they’d have an alternative leader ready-to-go.
Hague’s allies might have been tempted to fix the selection process against his rival — choosing some unthreatening local councillor instead. And yet there was no hint of any such skullduggery. Portillo was duly selected as the Conservative candidate — and, on the 25 November 1999, elected as the new MP for Kensington and Chelsea with 56 per cent of the vote. Back then, I was a minor functionary in Conservative Central Office and witnessed all the stops being pulled out to aid his victory.
Nor was that the end of Hague’s magnanimity. Within a couple of months, he reshuffled the Shadow Cabinet to give Portillo the biggest possible promotion — to Shadow Chancellor and deputy leader of the party.
In short, faced with a potential challenge to his position, William Hague chose the path of honour and open-handedness. A quarter of a century later, the same cannot be said for Keir Starmer — whose place-persons on the Labour National Executive Committee have blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
These days, by-elections are few and far between. As for a contest where Labour stands a chance of winning, those are rare as hen’s teeth. To compound the sheer flukiness of the situation, Gorton and Denton is in Greater Manchester, of which Burnham is the popular metropolitan mayor. So for Starmer to stand in his way doesn’t just offend against the British sense of fair play, but against fate itself.
Instead of doing the big thing, the Prime Minister has chosen the path of pettiness. If Labour loses in Gorton and Denton then then the blame will attach fairly-and-squarely to him and his right hand man, Morgan McSweeney.
But just how likely is a Labour defeat — and, by objective psephological standards, just how big a deal would it be?
Let’s start by getting one thing straight: Gorton and Denton is not part of the “Red Wall”.
Yes, it’s north of the Watford Gap and not an inner city constituency, but the Red Wall concept (as originally defined by James Kanagasooriam) applies specifically to marginal seats where the Conservatives have regularly failed to turn promising …
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