(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Illegal Alien Workers are Indeed Suppressing Lots of U.S. Wages
Who's accountable for the results?
It’s long been claimed that non-criminal illegal aliens in America who work hard and pay taxes deserve some form of amnesty instead of deportation. Former President Biden was one; here and here are some other examples. And since the recent deportation-related violence in Minnesota, these arguments have multiplied. (See, e.g., here.)
Here’s one big problem. Despite the suggestions here that illegal residence in the United States is usually a victim-less crime, that’s not to say that there are no victims. In fact, there are tens of millions: the legal resident workers, citizen and non-citizen alike, whose wages have been suppressed by the massive influx of illegal competitors in recent decades.
As RealityChek regulars know, I recently examined this issue and based on several sets of official U.S. wage data, concluded that such wage suppression hadn’t appeared. Yet at the suggestion of immigration restrictionist Mickey Kaus, I took a more focused look. And the results were strikingly different.
Previously, I sought the answer by comparing (pre-Trump 2.0 deportation) 2024 and 2025 wage trends by looking at the very broadest worker categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (all non-farm employees, and production and nonsupervisory – more or less blue-collar – employees). But following Kaus’ suggestion, this week, I looked at the trends for blue collar workers in categories that have been illegal alien-heavy.
They numbered 23, based mainly on this analysis from the Center for Migration Studies – which is pretty supportive of boosting immigration and seeks to safeguard “the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers.”
And in fully 16, real hourly wages were stronger in 2025 than in pre-deportation 2024 – including six in which this measure of pay fell in absolute terms in 2024 and rebounded into the black in 2025. In six other sectors, the pre-deportation 2024 results were better, and in one industry – janitorial services – they were the same.
Here are the exact numbers for 19 industries where the data begin in February (the first full month of Trump 2.0) and are only available through last November. (Apologies for some poor formatting. I’m pretty challenged in that regard.)
Feb.-Nov. 2024 Feb.-Nov. 25
Grocery & convenience -0.17 percent +1.05 percent
stores
Truck transportation +1.04 percent +1.54 percent
General freight trucking +0.93 percent +1.93 percent
Janitorial services 0.00 percent 0.00 percent
Landscaping services +1.42 percent +2.41 percent
Waste collection +1.08 percent +1.39 percent
Disability, mental health +1.67 percent +0.95 percent
& substance abuse facilities
Elder care facilities +1.71 percent +0.42 percent
Retirement communities 0.14 percent +2.10 percent
Child care services +0.65 percent -0.16 percent …
Who's accountable for the results?
It’s long been claimed that non-criminal illegal aliens in America who work hard and pay taxes deserve some form of amnesty instead of deportation. Former President Biden was one; here and here are some other examples. And since the recent deportation-related violence in Minnesota, these arguments have multiplied. (See, e.g., here.)
Here’s one big problem. Despite the suggestions here that illegal residence in the United States is usually a victim-less crime, that’s not to say that there are no victims. In fact, there are tens of millions: the legal resident workers, citizen and non-citizen alike, whose wages have been suppressed by the massive influx of illegal competitors in recent decades.
As RealityChek regulars know, I recently examined this issue and based on several sets of official U.S. wage data, concluded that such wage suppression hadn’t appeared. Yet at the suggestion of immigration restrictionist Mickey Kaus, I took a more focused look. And the results were strikingly different.
Previously, I sought the answer by comparing (pre-Trump 2.0 deportation) 2024 and 2025 wage trends by looking at the very broadest worker categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (all non-farm employees, and production and nonsupervisory – more or less blue-collar – employees). But following Kaus’ suggestion, this week, I looked at the trends for blue collar workers in categories that have been illegal alien-heavy.
They numbered 23, based mainly on this analysis from the Center for Migration Studies – which is pretty supportive of boosting immigration and seeks to safeguard “the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers.”
And in fully 16, real hourly wages were stronger in 2025 than in pre-deportation 2024 – including six in which this measure of pay fell in absolute terms in 2024 and rebounded into the black in 2025. In six other sectors, the pre-deportation 2024 results were better, and in one industry – janitorial services – they were the same.
Here are the exact numbers for 19 industries where the data begin in February (the first full month of Trump 2.0) and are only available through last November. (Apologies for some poor formatting. I’m pretty challenged in that regard.)
Feb.-Nov. 2024 Feb.-Nov. 25
Grocery & convenience -0.17 percent +1.05 percent
stores
Truck transportation +1.04 percent +1.54 percent
General freight trucking +0.93 percent +1.93 percent
Janitorial services 0.00 percent 0.00 percent
Landscaping services +1.42 percent +2.41 percent
Waste collection +1.08 percent +1.39 percent
Disability, mental health +1.67 percent +0.95 percent
& substance abuse facilities
Elder care facilities +1.71 percent +0.42 percent
Retirement communities 0.14 percent +2.10 percent
Child care services +0.65 percent -0.16 percent …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Illegal Alien Workers are Indeed Suppressing Lots of U.S. Wages
Who's accountable for the results?
It’s long been claimed that non-criminal illegal aliens in America who work hard and pay taxes deserve some form of amnesty instead of deportation. Former President Biden was one; here and here are some other examples. And since the recent deportation-related violence in Minnesota, these arguments have multiplied. (See, e.g., here.)
Here’s one big problem. Despite the suggestions here that illegal residence in the United States is usually a victim-less crime, that’s not to say that there are no victims. In fact, there are tens of millions: the legal resident workers, citizen and non-citizen alike, whose wages have been suppressed by the massive influx of illegal competitors in recent decades.
As RealityChek regulars know, I recently examined this issue and based on several sets of official U.S. wage data, concluded that such wage suppression hadn’t appeared. Yet at the suggestion of immigration restrictionist Mickey Kaus, I took a more focused look. And the results were strikingly different.
Previously, I sought the answer by comparing (pre-Trump 2.0 deportation) 2024 and 2025 wage trends by looking at the very broadest worker categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (all non-farm employees, and production and nonsupervisory – more or less blue-collar – employees). But following Kaus’ suggestion, this week, I looked at the trends for blue collar workers in categories that have been illegal alien-heavy.
They numbered 23, based mainly on this analysis from the Center for Migration Studies – which is pretty supportive of boosting immigration and seeks to safeguard “the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers.”
And in fully 16, real hourly wages were stronger in 2025 than in pre-deportation 2024 – including six in which this measure of pay fell in absolute terms in 2024 and rebounded into the black in 2025. In six other sectors, the pre-deportation 2024 results were better, and in one industry – janitorial services – they were the same.
Here are the exact numbers for 19 industries where the data begin in February (the first full month of Trump 2.0) and are only available through last November. (Apologies for some poor formatting. I’m pretty challenged in that regard.)
Feb.-Nov. 2024 Feb.-Nov. 25
Grocery & convenience -0.17 percent +1.05 percent
stores
Truck transportation +1.04 percent +1.54 percent
General freight trucking +0.93 percent +1.93 percent
Janitorial services 0.00 percent 0.00 percent
Landscaping services +1.42 percent +2.41 percent
Waste collection +1.08 percent +1.39 percent
Disability, mental health +1.67 percent +0.95 percent
& substance abuse facilities
Elder care facilities +1.71 percent +0.42 percent
Retirement communities 0.14 percent +2.10 percent
Child care services +0.65 percent -0.16 percent …
