Bombshell Census projections show Republicans could win White House without Rust Belt ‘Blue Wall’
Why resist verification?
New projections of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could be a "game changer" in the quadrennial battle between Democrats and Republicans for the presidency.
Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.
The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.
Another projection, from the Republican-aligned American Redistricting Project, indicates Texas gaining four seats and Florida gaining two.
NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA, PROJECTED TO LOSE SIX HOUSE SEATS NEXT DECADE
The projections spell trouble for Democrats when it comes to the battle for the House majority next decade, after reapportionment based on the 2030 Census. But it would also be a major setback for them starting in the 2032 presidential election, because states' electoral votes are based in part on the number of their congressional seats.
"I think the Democrats are in a bit of an existential crisis when it comes to winning the White House," longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News Digital.
CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING WARS HEAT UP AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, said, "I think it’s right that there’s going to be an 8-10 electoral vote shift" from blue to red states.
"I would not want to be where the Democrats are," he emphasized. "The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb."
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson agreed that if the Census projections become electoral reality, "it would be a major barrier for Democrats" in winning the White House.
Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, called it a potential "game changer."
Democrats reliably won the three working-class states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, known as the "blue wall" states, in presidential elections for nearly a quarter-century before President Donald Trump narrowly carried them in capturing the White House in 2016.
WHY CALIFORNIA'S LOOMING CAPITAL FLIGHT WILL IMPACT WHITE HOUSE RACE
Former President Joe Biden won all three states back in 2020 as he defeated Trump's bid for re-election.
But Trump swept the blue wall and the …
Why resist verification?
New projections of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could be a "game changer" in the quadrennial battle between Democrats and Republicans for the presidency.
Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.
The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.
Another projection, from the Republican-aligned American Redistricting Project, indicates Texas gaining four seats and Florida gaining two.
NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA, PROJECTED TO LOSE SIX HOUSE SEATS NEXT DECADE
The projections spell trouble for Democrats when it comes to the battle for the House majority next decade, after reapportionment based on the 2030 Census. But it would also be a major setback for them starting in the 2032 presidential election, because states' electoral votes are based in part on the number of their congressional seats.
"I think the Democrats are in a bit of an existential crisis when it comes to winning the White House," longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News Digital.
CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING WARS HEAT UP AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, said, "I think it’s right that there’s going to be an 8-10 electoral vote shift" from blue to red states.
"I would not want to be where the Democrats are," he emphasized. "The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb."
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson agreed that if the Census projections become electoral reality, "it would be a major barrier for Democrats" in winning the White House.
Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, called it a potential "game changer."
Democrats reliably won the three working-class states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, known as the "blue wall" states, in presidential elections for nearly a quarter-century before President Donald Trump narrowly carried them in capturing the White House in 2016.
WHY CALIFORNIA'S LOOMING CAPITAL FLIGHT WILL IMPACT WHITE HOUSE RACE
Former President Joe Biden won all three states back in 2020 as he defeated Trump's bid for re-election.
But Trump swept the blue wall and the …
Bombshell Census projections show Republicans could win White House without Rust Belt ‘Blue Wall’
Why resist verification?
New projections of the 2030 U.S. Census indicating a major shift of electoral votes from traditionally blue states to red states could be a "game changer" in the quadrennial battle between Democrats and Republicans for the presidency.
Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.
The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.
Another projection, from the Republican-aligned American Redistricting Project, indicates Texas gaining four seats and Florida gaining two.
NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA, PROJECTED TO LOSE SIX HOUSE SEATS NEXT DECADE
The projections spell trouble for Democrats when it comes to the battle for the House majority next decade, after reapportionment based on the 2030 Census. But it would also be a major setback for them starting in the 2032 presidential election, because states' electoral votes are based in part on the number of their congressional seats.
"I think the Democrats are in a bit of an existential crisis when it comes to winning the White House," longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News Digital.
CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING WARS HEAT UP AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns, said, "I think it’s right that there’s going to be an 8-10 electoral vote shift" from blue to red states.
"I would not want to be where the Democrats are," he emphasized. "The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb."
Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson agreed that if the Census projections become electoral reality, "it would be a major barrier for Democrats" in winning the White House.
Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, called it a potential "game changer."
Democrats reliably won the three working-class states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, known as the "blue wall" states, in presidential elections for nearly a quarter-century before President Donald Trump narrowly carried them in capturing the White House in 2016.
WHY CALIFORNIA'S LOOMING CAPITAL FLIGHT WILL IMPACT WHITE HOUSE RACE
Former President Joe Biden won all three states back in 2020 as he defeated Trump's bid for re-election.
But Trump swept the blue wall and the …
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