(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Yet More Tariff-Friendly Official U.S. Trade Figures
Are they actually going to vote on something real?
Not even the sequential near doubling of the total U.S. trade deficit for last November revealed in today’s report from the Census Bureau could interrupt the tariff-heavy second Trump administration’s record of dramatically shrinking the huge, long standing trade gap.
Between October and November the combined goods and services deficit skyrocketed by fully 94.57 percent, from a downwardly revised $28.91 billion (the smallest such figure since June, 2009’s $27.51 billion) to $56.83 billion. The October result, of course, had represented a drop of 39.33 percent – the biggest since April’s 55.60 percent.
Moreover, that November jump was the greatest since March, 1992 – when it almost tripled after cratering in February during an unusually harsh winter (and when overall trade value was much smaller).
At the same time, the November melt-up brought the Trump 2.0 trade deficit (starting in November, the first full month of the president’s term) to $683.50 billion. That’s 7.57 percent lower than the $739.51 billion wracked up during the same pre-Trump period under former President Joe Biden in 2024.
And since the “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April, the overall trade shortfall has sunk fully 25.22 percent lower than between pre-tariff-y February and November, 2024.
The first full-year 2025 numbers are set to come in next month (unless there’s another shutdown?), but last year’s January-November trade deficit was just 4.08 percent higher than during the comparable 2024 stretch. And the January-November, 2024 total was 13.55 percent higher than its 2023 counterpart. So clearly, major progress keeps being made.
Moreover, these improving results are coming in an economy growing only slightly more slowly than in 2024. If the newest fourth quarter projection from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds, the economy’s after-inflation expansion would be just under 2.5 percent – not much worse than 2004’s 2.8 percent. Yet a significantly more modest trade gap isn’t supposed to happen when the growth figures are so close, for according to most economists, trade deficits typically narrow when expansions slow significantly, by depressing demand for goods and services from both domestic and foreign providers.
Part of the November trade shortfall’s sequential jump came from a 3.59 percent decrease in combined goods and services exports, from an all-time high of $302.92 billion to $292.05 billion. The decline was the first on-month and biggest fall-off in such sales since last May’s 3.81 percent. But these total exports are still up 6.27 percent on a year-to-date basis. That’s faster than the 4.65 percent during the comparable period in pre-tariff-y 2024.
Further, they belie widespread predictions that the Trump 2.0 tariffs would provoke widespread foreign retaliation – in the process vindicating the president’s claims that the United States holds the most powerful cards by far in global trade diplomacy. (See, e.g., here.)
The still much greater amount of total imports, meanwhile, increased by 5.04 percent on-month in November, from $332.12 billion (their lowest level since March, 2024’s $331.90 billion) to $348.88 billion – the …
Are they actually going to vote on something real?
Not even the sequential near doubling of the total U.S. trade deficit for last November revealed in today’s report from the Census Bureau could interrupt the tariff-heavy second Trump administration’s record of dramatically shrinking the huge, long standing trade gap.
Between October and November the combined goods and services deficit skyrocketed by fully 94.57 percent, from a downwardly revised $28.91 billion (the smallest such figure since June, 2009’s $27.51 billion) to $56.83 billion. The October result, of course, had represented a drop of 39.33 percent – the biggest since April’s 55.60 percent.
Moreover, that November jump was the greatest since March, 1992 – when it almost tripled after cratering in February during an unusually harsh winter (and when overall trade value was much smaller).
At the same time, the November melt-up brought the Trump 2.0 trade deficit (starting in November, the first full month of the president’s term) to $683.50 billion. That’s 7.57 percent lower than the $739.51 billion wracked up during the same pre-Trump period under former President Joe Biden in 2024.
And since the “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April, the overall trade shortfall has sunk fully 25.22 percent lower than between pre-tariff-y February and November, 2024.
The first full-year 2025 numbers are set to come in next month (unless there’s another shutdown?), but last year’s January-November trade deficit was just 4.08 percent higher than during the comparable 2024 stretch. And the January-November, 2024 total was 13.55 percent higher than its 2023 counterpart. So clearly, major progress keeps being made.
Moreover, these improving results are coming in an economy growing only slightly more slowly than in 2024. If the newest fourth quarter projection from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds, the economy’s after-inflation expansion would be just under 2.5 percent – not much worse than 2004’s 2.8 percent. Yet a significantly more modest trade gap isn’t supposed to happen when the growth figures are so close, for according to most economists, trade deficits typically narrow when expansions slow significantly, by depressing demand for goods and services from both domestic and foreign providers.
Part of the November trade shortfall’s sequential jump came from a 3.59 percent decrease in combined goods and services exports, from an all-time high of $302.92 billion to $292.05 billion. The decline was the first on-month and biggest fall-off in such sales since last May’s 3.81 percent. But these total exports are still up 6.27 percent on a year-to-date basis. That’s faster than the 4.65 percent during the comparable period in pre-tariff-y 2024.
Further, they belie widespread predictions that the Trump 2.0 tariffs would provoke widespread foreign retaliation – in the process vindicating the president’s claims that the United States holds the most powerful cards by far in global trade diplomacy. (See, e.g., here.)
The still much greater amount of total imports, meanwhile, increased by 5.04 percent on-month in November, from $332.12 billion (their lowest level since March, 2024’s $331.90 billion) to $348.88 billion – the …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Yet More Tariff-Friendly Official U.S. Trade Figures
Are they actually going to vote on something real?
Not even the sequential near doubling of the total U.S. trade deficit for last November revealed in today’s report from the Census Bureau could interrupt the tariff-heavy second Trump administration’s record of dramatically shrinking the huge, long standing trade gap.
Between October and November the combined goods and services deficit skyrocketed by fully 94.57 percent, from a downwardly revised $28.91 billion (the smallest such figure since June, 2009’s $27.51 billion) to $56.83 billion. The October result, of course, had represented a drop of 39.33 percent – the biggest since April’s 55.60 percent.
Moreover, that November jump was the greatest since March, 1992 – when it almost tripled after cratering in February during an unusually harsh winter (and when overall trade value was much smaller).
At the same time, the November melt-up brought the Trump 2.0 trade deficit (starting in November, the first full month of the president’s term) to $683.50 billion. That’s 7.57 percent lower than the $739.51 billion wracked up during the same pre-Trump period under former President Joe Biden in 2024.
And since the “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April, the overall trade shortfall has sunk fully 25.22 percent lower than between pre-tariff-y February and November, 2024.
The first full-year 2025 numbers are set to come in next month (unless there’s another shutdown?), but last year’s January-November trade deficit was just 4.08 percent higher than during the comparable 2024 stretch. And the January-November, 2024 total was 13.55 percent higher than its 2023 counterpart. So clearly, major progress keeps being made.
Moreover, these improving results are coming in an economy growing only slightly more slowly than in 2024. If the newest fourth quarter projection from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds, the economy’s after-inflation expansion would be just under 2.5 percent – not much worse than 2004’s 2.8 percent. Yet a significantly more modest trade gap isn’t supposed to happen when the growth figures are so close, for according to most economists, trade deficits typically narrow when expansions slow significantly, by depressing demand for goods and services from both domestic and foreign providers.
Part of the November trade shortfall’s sequential jump came from a 3.59 percent decrease in combined goods and services exports, from an all-time high of $302.92 billion to $292.05 billion. The decline was the first on-month and biggest fall-off in such sales since last May’s 3.81 percent. But these total exports are still up 6.27 percent on a year-to-date basis. That’s faster than the 4.65 percent during the comparable period in pre-tariff-y 2024.
Further, they belie widespread predictions that the Trump 2.0 tariffs would provoke widespread foreign retaliation – in the process vindicating the president’s claims that the United States holds the most powerful cards by far in global trade diplomacy. (See, e.g., here.)
The still much greater amount of total imports, meanwhile, increased by 5.04 percent on-month in November, from $332.12 billion (their lowest level since March, 2024’s $331.90 billion) to $348.88 billion – the …
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