Im-Politic: Americans are Voting Republican with Their Feet
Same show, different day.
There sure has been lots of commentary lately on how the Republicans look likely to face major losses in Congress in this year’s midterm elections. (See, e.g., here, here, and here.) Moreover, some of these alarm bells reportedly are being rung by Republicans themselves.
For all I know, these analysts may all be right. But what I found especially interesting this past week was the release of data from the Census Bureau indicating that whatever edge the Democrats may have now will be short-lived.
It comes from Census’ latest annual report on state-level population trends, which includes the numbers for state-to-state migration – that is, how many Americans are moving from one state to another. And here are key results for the July, 2024-July, 2025 period, summarized by the (yes, conservative) Committee to Unleash Prosperity – the ten states that have lost the most residents to other states on net, and the ten that have gained the most.
Why could these findings matter greatly for American politics? Because of the ten biggest net migration winner states, all except North Carolina and Arizona are currently governed by Republicans. And of the ten biggest losers, Only Louisiana is currently governed by a Republican.
As the (also conservative) Wall Street Journal editorial board has noted, “If this trend holds, Democratic-run states will likely lose at least a half dozen Congressional seats after the post-2030 Census reapportionment, as well as the federal funds tied to population.”
That reapportionment is still years away, and so much could happen between now and then that forecasting election results can be foolhardy. But 19th century French philosopher Auguste Comte’s view that “Demography is destiny” isn’t widely quoted for nothing. If he’s right, if leaders in Democratic-run states don’t change their policies soon, and if Republicans don’t screw up massively, the conservative (and possibly the conservative populist turn) that American politics has taken on balance since President Trump’s first election in 2016 could have considerably longer legs than often assumed today.
Same show, different day.
There sure has been lots of commentary lately on how the Republicans look likely to face major losses in Congress in this year’s midterm elections. (See, e.g., here, here, and here.) Moreover, some of these alarm bells reportedly are being rung by Republicans themselves.
For all I know, these analysts may all be right. But what I found especially interesting this past week was the release of data from the Census Bureau indicating that whatever edge the Democrats may have now will be short-lived.
It comes from Census’ latest annual report on state-level population trends, which includes the numbers for state-to-state migration – that is, how many Americans are moving from one state to another. And here are key results for the July, 2024-July, 2025 period, summarized by the (yes, conservative) Committee to Unleash Prosperity – the ten states that have lost the most residents to other states on net, and the ten that have gained the most.
Why could these findings matter greatly for American politics? Because of the ten biggest net migration winner states, all except North Carolina and Arizona are currently governed by Republicans. And of the ten biggest losers, Only Louisiana is currently governed by a Republican.
As the (also conservative) Wall Street Journal editorial board has noted, “If this trend holds, Democratic-run states will likely lose at least a half dozen Congressional seats after the post-2030 Census reapportionment, as well as the federal funds tied to population.”
That reapportionment is still years away, and so much could happen between now and then that forecasting election results can be foolhardy. But 19th century French philosopher Auguste Comte’s view that “Demography is destiny” isn’t widely quoted for nothing. If he’s right, if leaders in Democratic-run states don’t change their policies soon, and if Republicans don’t screw up massively, the conservative (and possibly the conservative populist turn) that American politics has taken on balance since President Trump’s first election in 2016 could have considerably longer legs than often assumed today.
Im-Politic: Americans are Voting Republican with Their Feet
Same show, different day.
There sure has been lots of commentary lately on how the Republicans look likely to face major losses in Congress in this year’s midterm elections. (See, e.g., here, here, and here.) Moreover, some of these alarm bells reportedly are being rung by Republicans themselves.
For all I know, these analysts may all be right. But what I found especially interesting this past week was the release of data from the Census Bureau indicating that whatever edge the Democrats may have now will be short-lived.
It comes from Census’ latest annual report on state-level population trends, which includes the numbers for state-to-state migration – that is, how many Americans are moving from one state to another. And here are key results for the July, 2024-July, 2025 period, summarized by the (yes, conservative) Committee to Unleash Prosperity – the ten states that have lost the most residents to other states on net, and the ten that have gained the most.
Why could these findings matter greatly for American politics? Because of the ten biggest net migration winner states, all except North Carolina and Arizona are currently governed by Republicans. And of the ten biggest losers, Only Louisiana is currently governed by a Republican.
As the (also conservative) Wall Street Journal editorial board has noted, “If this trend holds, Democratic-run states will likely lose at least a half dozen Congressional seats after the post-2030 Census reapportionment, as well as the federal funds tied to population.”
That reapportionment is still years away, and so much could happen between now and then that forecasting election results can be foolhardy. But 19th century French philosopher Auguste Comte’s view that “Demography is destiny” isn’t widely quoted for nothing. If he’s right, if leaders in Democratic-run states don’t change their policies soon, and if Republicans don’t screw up massively, the conservative (and possibly the conservative populist turn) that American politics has taken on balance since President Trump’s first election in 2016 could have considerably longer legs than often assumed today.
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