(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Sorry, New York Times. U.S. Manufacturing’s Output Upturn is Very Broad-Based
Ask why this angle was chosen.
There seems to be no stopping the tariff doom-mongering by leading economists and the Once-Mainstream Media – even though there seems to be no stopping the release of official U.S. economic data showing exactly the opposite.
The latest example: Ana Swanson’s New York Times piece yesterday “The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment.”
Swanson actually deserves some credit for acknowledging (albeit with a qualification) that, “In recent months” during President Trump’s second term, the trade deficit “has fallen significantly….” and noted “recent gains in industrial production and capital expenditure.” (I’ve documented these developments here, here, and here, for example.) Indeed, by the standards of the establishment priesthood, that’s downright heretical.
But that reservation she expressed about industrial production – “Much of the upturn…is attributable to growth in the aerospace and electronics sectors, which are among the least burdened by tariffs” – doesn’t cut the mustard factually.
Specifically, the idea that manufacturing’s output growth has been narrowly based and largely unrelated to tariffs is belied by data from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Fed, in the 24 major categories and biggest sub-groupings tracked by the central bank, from Mr. Trump’s first full month in office (last February) through the latest data month recorded (last December), constant dollar manufacturing production rose faster than it did during the comparable pre-tariff 2024 months in no fewer than fifteen.
Moreover, in six of the fifteen, the results flipped from falling in after-inflation terms to rising.
By contrast, the 2024 results topped those of 2025 in just nine sectors. And in just three of them did inflation-adjusted output flip from growth to contraction.
Here are the specifics:
Feb.-Dec. 2024 Feb.-Dec. 2025
Overall manufacturing -0.83 percent +1.26 percent
Durable goods -2.19 percent +1.34 percent
Wood products +1.30 percent -6.66 percent
Nonmetallic mineral products -0.36 percent -3.60 percent
Primary metal products -0.65 percent +3.82 percent
Fabricated metal products -2.97 percent +3.00 percent
Machinery -3.18 percent +3.91 percent
Computer & electronics +5.13 percent +4.97 percent
products
Electrical equipment, +0.16 percent -0.42 percent
appliances & components
Motor vehicles & parts -5.66 percent -5.44 percent
Aerospace & -0.38 percent +9.61 percent
miscellaneous transportation
equipment
Furniture & related -4.36 percent -1.22 percent
product
Miscellaneous durable -7.60 percent -2.90 …
Ask why this angle was chosen.
There seems to be no stopping the tariff doom-mongering by leading economists and the Once-Mainstream Media – even though there seems to be no stopping the release of official U.S. economic data showing exactly the opposite.
The latest example: Ana Swanson’s New York Times piece yesterday “The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment.”
Swanson actually deserves some credit for acknowledging (albeit with a qualification) that, “In recent months” during President Trump’s second term, the trade deficit “has fallen significantly….” and noted “recent gains in industrial production and capital expenditure.” (I’ve documented these developments here, here, and here, for example.) Indeed, by the standards of the establishment priesthood, that’s downright heretical.
But that reservation she expressed about industrial production – “Much of the upturn…is attributable to growth in the aerospace and electronics sectors, which are among the least burdened by tariffs” – doesn’t cut the mustard factually.
Specifically, the idea that manufacturing’s output growth has been narrowly based and largely unrelated to tariffs is belied by data from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Fed, in the 24 major categories and biggest sub-groupings tracked by the central bank, from Mr. Trump’s first full month in office (last February) through the latest data month recorded (last December), constant dollar manufacturing production rose faster than it did during the comparable pre-tariff 2024 months in no fewer than fifteen.
Moreover, in six of the fifteen, the results flipped from falling in after-inflation terms to rising.
By contrast, the 2024 results topped those of 2025 in just nine sectors. And in just three of them did inflation-adjusted output flip from growth to contraction.
Here are the specifics:
Feb.-Dec. 2024 Feb.-Dec. 2025
Overall manufacturing -0.83 percent +1.26 percent
Durable goods -2.19 percent +1.34 percent
Wood products +1.30 percent -6.66 percent
Nonmetallic mineral products -0.36 percent -3.60 percent
Primary metal products -0.65 percent +3.82 percent
Fabricated metal products -2.97 percent +3.00 percent
Machinery -3.18 percent +3.91 percent
Computer & electronics +5.13 percent +4.97 percent
products
Electrical equipment, +0.16 percent -0.42 percent
appliances & components
Motor vehicles & parts -5.66 percent -5.44 percent
Aerospace & -0.38 percent +9.61 percent
miscellaneous transportation
equipment
Furniture & related -4.36 percent -1.22 percent
product
Miscellaneous durable -7.60 percent -2.90 …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Sorry, New York Times. U.S. Manufacturing’s Output Upturn is Very Broad-Based
Ask why this angle was chosen.
There seems to be no stopping the tariff doom-mongering by leading economists and the Once-Mainstream Media – even though there seems to be no stopping the release of official U.S. economic data showing exactly the opposite.
The latest example: Ana Swanson’s New York Times piece yesterday “The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment.”
Swanson actually deserves some credit for acknowledging (albeit with a qualification) that, “In recent months” during President Trump’s second term, the trade deficit “has fallen significantly….” and noted “recent gains in industrial production and capital expenditure.” (I’ve documented these developments here, here, and here, for example.) Indeed, by the standards of the establishment priesthood, that’s downright heretical.
But that reservation she expressed about industrial production – “Much of the upturn…is attributable to growth in the aerospace and electronics sectors, which are among the least burdened by tariffs” – doesn’t cut the mustard factually.
Specifically, the idea that manufacturing’s output growth has been narrowly based and largely unrelated to tariffs is belied by data from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Fed, in the 24 major categories and biggest sub-groupings tracked by the central bank, from Mr. Trump’s first full month in office (last February) through the latest data month recorded (last December), constant dollar manufacturing production rose faster than it did during the comparable pre-tariff 2024 months in no fewer than fifteen.
Moreover, in six of the fifteen, the results flipped from falling in after-inflation terms to rising.
By contrast, the 2024 results topped those of 2025 in just nine sectors. And in just three of them did inflation-adjusted output flip from growth to contraction.
Here are the specifics:
Feb.-Dec. 2024 Feb.-Dec. 2025
Overall manufacturing -0.83 percent +1.26 percent
Durable goods -2.19 percent +1.34 percent
Wood products +1.30 percent -6.66 percent
Nonmetallic mineral products -0.36 percent -3.60 percent
Primary metal products -0.65 percent +3.82 percent
Fabricated metal products -2.97 percent +3.00 percent
Machinery -3.18 percent +3.91 percent
Computer & electronics +5.13 percent +4.97 percent
products
Electrical equipment, +0.16 percent -0.42 percent
appliances & components
Motor vehicles & parts -5.66 percent -5.44 percent
Aerospace & -0.38 percent +9.61 percent
miscellaneous transportation
equipment
Furniture & related -4.36 percent -1.22 percent
product
Miscellaneous durable -7.60 percent -2.90 …
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