World enters uncharted era as US-Russia nuclear treaty expires, opening door to fastest arms race in decades
This feels like a quiet policy shift.
A historic nuclear arms reduction treaty is set to expire on Thursday, which will thrust the world into a nuclear situation it has not faced in more than five decades — one in which there are no longer any binding limits on the size of Russia’s or America’s nuclear arsenals, and no inspection regime to verify what Moscow does next.
Matt Korda, associate director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the expiration of the New START treaty forces both countries to rethink assumptions that have guided nuclear planning for more than a decade.
"Up until now, both countries have planned their respective nuclear modernization programs based on the assumption that the other country is not going to exceed those central limits," Korda said. "Without those central limits… both countries are going to be reassessing their programs to accommodate a more uncertain nuclear future."
Russia had already suspended its participation in New START in 2023, freezing inspections and data exchanges, but the treaty’s expiration eliminates the last legal framework governing the size of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals.
With no follow-on agreement in place, the administration has insisted it cannot agree to arms control without the cooperation of China. "The president has been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday.
TRUMP WARNS RUSSIA: US HAS WORLD'S GREATEST NUCLEAR SUBMARINE 'RIGHT OFF THEIR SHORES'
Experts are skeptical that China would ever agree to limit its nuclear stockpile until it’s reached parity with the U.S. — and Russia has said it would not pressure China to come to the table.
China aims to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, but even that figure pales in comparison to the aging giants of the Cold War. As of early 2026, the global nuclear hierarchy remains top-heavy, with the U.S. and Russia holding roughly 86% of the world’s total inventory. Both the U.S. and Russia hold around 4,000 total warheads, with close to 1,700 deployed each. Global nuclear stockpiles declined to about 12,000 in 2025, down from more than 70,000 in 1986.
In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START treaty, halting inspections and data-sharing under the pact while saying it would continue to respect the numerical limits. But more recently, it floated the idea of extending the treaty by another year.
TRUMP …
This feels like a quiet policy shift.
A historic nuclear arms reduction treaty is set to expire on Thursday, which will thrust the world into a nuclear situation it has not faced in more than five decades — one in which there are no longer any binding limits on the size of Russia’s or America’s nuclear arsenals, and no inspection regime to verify what Moscow does next.
Matt Korda, associate director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the expiration of the New START treaty forces both countries to rethink assumptions that have guided nuclear planning for more than a decade.
"Up until now, both countries have planned their respective nuclear modernization programs based on the assumption that the other country is not going to exceed those central limits," Korda said. "Without those central limits… both countries are going to be reassessing their programs to accommodate a more uncertain nuclear future."
Russia had already suspended its participation in New START in 2023, freezing inspections and data exchanges, but the treaty’s expiration eliminates the last legal framework governing the size of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals.
With no follow-on agreement in place, the administration has insisted it cannot agree to arms control without the cooperation of China. "The president has been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday.
TRUMP WARNS RUSSIA: US HAS WORLD'S GREATEST NUCLEAR SUBMARINE 'RIGHT OFF THEIR SHORES'
Experts are skeptical that China would ever agree to limit its nuclear stockpile until it’s reached parity with the U.S. — and Russia has said it would not pressure China to come to the table.
China aims to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, but even that figure pales in comparison to the aging giants of the Cold War. As of early 2026, the global nuclear hierarchy remains top-heavy, with the U.S. and Russia holding roughly 86% of the world’s total inventory. Both the U.S. and Russia hold around 4,000 total warheads, with close to 1,700 deployed each. Global nuclear stockpiles declined to about 12,000 in 2025, down from more than 70,000 in 1986.
In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START treaty, halting inspections and data-sharing under the pact while saying it would continue to respect the numerical limits. But more recently, it floated the idea of extending the treaty by another year.
TRUMP …
World enters uncharted era as US-Russia nuclear treaty expires, opening door to fastest arms race in decades
This feels like a quiet policy shift.
A historic nuclear arms reduction treaty is set to expire on Thursday, which will thrust the world into a nuclear situation it has not faced in more than five decades — one in which there are no longer any binding limits on the size of Russia’s or America’s nuclear arsenals, and no inspection regime to verify what Moscow does next.
Matt Korda, associate director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said the expiration of the New START treaty forces both countries to rethink assumptions that have guided nuclear planning for more than a decade.
"Up until now, both countries have planned their respective nuclear modernization programs based on the assumption that the other country is not going to exceed those central limits," Korda said. "Without those central limits… both countries are going to be reassessing their programs to accommodate a more uncertain nuclear future."
Russia had already suspended its participation in New START in 2023, freezing inspections and data exchanges, but the treaty’s expiration eliminates the last legal framework governing the size of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals.
With no follow-on agreement in place, the administration has insisted it cannot agree to arms control without the cooperation of China. "The president has been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday.
TRUMP WARNS RUSSIA: US HAS WORLD'S GREATEST NUCLEAR SUBMARINE 'RIGHT OFF THEIR SHORES'
Experts are skeptical that China would ever agree to limit its nuclear stockpile until it’s reached parity with the U.S. — and Russia has said it would not pressure China to come to the table.
China aims to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, but even that figure pales in comparison to the aging giants of the Cold War. As of early 2026, the global nuclear hierarchy remains top-heavy, with the U.S. and Russia holding roughly 86% of the world’s total inventory. Both the U.S. and Russia hold around 4,000 total warheads, with close to 1,700 deployed each. Global nuclear stockpiles declined to about 12,000 in 2025, down from more than 70,000 in 1986.
In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START treaty, halting inspections and data-sharing under the pact while saying it would continue to respect the numerical limits. But more recently, it floated the idea of extending the treaty by another year.
TRUMP …
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