Why you should not bet against Kamala Harris 2028 on prediction markets
Why resist verification?
Welcome to Washington Secrets, your insider guide to who’s up and who’s down in the nation’s politics. Today we run through the odds that Kamala Harris will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president, explain just why the Epstein files have created a political crisis in London, and bring you the newest thing in political comedy …
Former Vice President Kamala Harris had her shot and blew it. Why would anyone think a losing candidate, associated with such a dismal showing in 2024, would be worth backing in the 2028 presidential election?
So runs the conventional thinking around the Democratic primary. But Secrets loves nothing better than upending conventional thinking, particularly when there is money to be made.
New polling and analysis from the experts at J.L. Partners suggests that Harris (who has just overhauled her social media presence in a sign that she is preparing to run) is desperately underpriced on betting markets.
Last night, she was running at 6% on Kalshi, a prediction market that covers everything from the Super Bowl result to whether President Donald Trump will sign an executive order this week. The numbers put her behind Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who led the field at 31%.
“For most of last year, she topped polls of Democratic primary voters and registered Democrats overall,” J.L. Partners wrote in its latest American Pulse newsletter. “For most of 2025, we were telling our clients this was a function of name recognition – it isn’t unusual for the former nominee to top the polls, especially of disengaged voters, because they are the most well-known.”
So far, so conventional. But the firm has begun polling a much tighter cohort of Democrat primary voters (based on their voting record and declaring themselves eight or above on a 10-point scale of likelihood to vote), using criteria that weed out the name recognition effect.
The results show Harris ahead of Newsom in the nomination race, 30% to 21%. Pete Buttigieg is third on seven points, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) on four, and Shapiro on four. Ocasio-Cortez comes in on three (tied with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)), which suggests that the firm has indeed selected out name recognition effects.
And there is another point. Harris’s support is built on black voters.
“Among white Democratic primary voters, she is tied with Gavin Newsom on 25 per cent apiece,” the newsletter …
Why resist verification?
Welcome to Washington Secrets, your insider guide to who’s up and who’s down in the nation’s politics. Today we run through the odds that Kamala Harris will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president, explain just why the Epstein files have created a political crisis in London, and bring you the newest thing in political comedy …
Former Vice President Kamala Harris had her shot and blew it. Why would anyone think a losing candidate, associated with such a dismal showing in 2024, would be worth backing in the 2028 presidential election?
So runs the conventional thinking around the Democratic primary. But Secrets loves nothing better than upending conventional thinking, particularly when there is money to be made.
New polling and analysis from the experts at J.L. Partners suggests that Harris (who has just overhauled her social media presence in a sign that she is preparing to run) is desperately underpriced on betting markets.
Last night, she was running at 6% on Kalshi, a prediction market that covers everything from the Super Bowl result to whether President Donald Trump will sign an executive order this week. The numbers put her behind Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who led the field at 31%.
“For most of last year, she topped polls of Democratic primary voters and registered Democrats overall,” J.L. Partners wrote in its latest American Pulse newsletter. “For most of 2025, we were telling our clients this was a function of name recognition – it isn’t unusual for the former nominee to top the polls, especially of disengaged voters, because they are the most well-known.”
So far, so conventional. But the firm has begun polling a much tighter cohort of Democrat primary voters (based on their voting record and declaring themselves eight or above on a 10-point scale of likelihood to vote), using criteria that weed out the name recognition effect.
The results show Harris ahead of Newsom in the nomination race, 30% to 21%. Pete Buttigieg is third on seven points, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) on four, and Shapiro on four. Ocasio-Cortez comes in on three (tied with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)), which suggests that the firm has indeed selected out name recognition effects.
And there is another point. Harris’s support is built on black voters.
“Among white Democratic primary voters, she is tied with Gavin Newsom on 25 per cent apiece,” the newsletter …
Why you should not bet against Kamala Harris 2028 on prediction markets
Why resist verification?
Welcome to Washington Secrets, your insider guide to who’s up and who’s down in the nation’s politics. Today we run through the odds that Kamala Harris will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president, explain just why the Epstein files have created a political crisis in London, and bring you the newest thing in political comedy …
Former Vice President Kamala Harris had her shot and blew it. Why would anyone think a losing candidate, associated with such a dismal showing in 2024, would be worth backing in the 2028 presidential election?
So runs the conventional thinking around the Democratic primary. But Secrets loves nothing better than upending conventional thinking, particularly when there is money to be made.
New polling and analysis from the experts at J.L. Partners suggests that Harris (who has just overhauled her social media presence in a sign that she is preparing to run) is desperately underpriced on betting markets.
Last night, she was running at 6% on Kalshi, a prediction market that covers everything from the Super Bowl result to whether President Donald Trump will sign an executive order this week. The numbers put her behind Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who led the field at 31%.
“For most of last year, she topped polls of Democratic primary voters and registered Democrats overall,” J.L. Partners wrote in its latest American Pulse newsletter. “For most of 2025, we were telling our clients this was a function of name recognition – it isn’t unusual for the former nominee to top the polls, especially of disengaged voters, because they are the most well-known.”
So far, so conventional. But the firm has begun polling a much tighter cohort of Democrat primary voters (based on their voting record and declaring themselves eight or above on a 10-point scale of likelihood to vote), using criteria that weed out the name recognition effect.
The results show Harris ahead of Newsom in the nomination race, 30% to 21%. Pete Buttigieg is third on seven points, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) on four, and Shapiro on four. Ocasio-Cortez comes in on three (tied with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)), which suggests that the firm has indeed selected out name recognition effects.
And there is another point. Harris’s support is built on black voters.
“Among white Democratic primary voters, she is tied with Gavin Newsom on 25 per cent apiece,” the newsletter …
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