Trump’s deportations may hurt, not help, GOP’s political math
Every delay has consequences.
President Donald Trump‘s allies have argued that illegal immigrants are skewing the Electoral College and the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives toward Democrats, but available data suggest the advantage may be smaller and could backfire on Republicans.
Trump allies, buoyed by polling that shows strong support for cracking down on all illegal immigrants among the MAGA faithful, argue the census gives Democrats an edge and the only solution is mass deportations.
David Sacks, chairman of the president’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, claimed during a February episode of his “All-In Podcast” that “Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.”
Sacks alluded to post-coronavirus pandemic intra-state migratory patterns that have seen residents abandoning blue states, including California and New York, to settle in Texas, Florida, and other Southern states.
“As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine House seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers,” he said. “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so, for example, in the last election, President Trump would’ve won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”
The U.S. census has not asked respondents about their citizenship status since 1950, meaning both legal noncitizen residents and undocumented immigrants are included in state population counts used to apportion U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes. Trump proposed adding a citizenship question during his first term but was blocked in court.
But research from both academics and conservative groups suggests removing undocumented immigrants from the census would shift only a handful of seats — not the sweeping advantage critics claim.
Counting illegal immigrants in the census does give states with higher nonlegal populations more weight in those processes. Yet, analyses conducted by the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies and Oxford University found the exclusion of illegal populations would not have materially changed either House district apportionment or the makeup of the Electoral College, especially when compared to the impact of legal immigrants on population growth.
According to that study, conducted in 2024, the “inclusion of all immigrants” in the 2020 census redistributed 17 House seats — with illegal immigrants accounting for just …
Every delay has consequences.
President Donald Trump‘s allies have argued that illegal immigrants are skewing the Electoral College and the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives toward Democrats, but available data suggest the advantage may be smaller and could backfire on Republicans.
Trump allies, buoyed by polling that shows strong support for cracking down on all illegal immigrants among the MAGA faithful, argue the census gives Democrats an edge and the only solution is mass deportations.
David Sacks, chairman of the president’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, claimed during a February episode of his “All-In Podcast” that “Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.”
Sacks alluded to post-coronavirus pandemic intra-state migratory patterns that have seen residents abandoning blue states, including California and New York, to settle in Texas, Florida, and other Southern states.
“As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine House seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers,” he said. “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so, for example, in the last election, President Trump would’ve won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”
The U.S. census has not asked respondents about their citizenship status since 1950, meaning both legal noncitizen residents and undocumented immigrants are included in state population counts used to apportion U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes. Trump proposed adding a citizenship question during his first term but was blocked in court.
But research from both academics and conservative groups suggests removing undocumented immigrants from the census would shift only a handful of seats — not the sweeping advantage critics claim.
Counting illegal immigrants in the census does give states with higher nonlegal populations more weight in those processes. Yet, analyses conducted by the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies and Oxford University found the exclusion of illegal populations would not have materially changed either House district apportionment or the makeup of the Electoral College, especially when compared to the impact of legal immigrants on population growth.
According to that study, conducted in 2024, the “inclusion of all immigrants” in the 2020 census redistributed 17 House seats — with illegal immigrants accounting for just …
Trump’s deportations may hurt, not help, GOP’s political math
Every delay has consequences.
President Donald Trump‘s allies have argued that illegal immigrants are skewing the Electoral College and the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives toward Democrats, but available data suggest the advantage may be smaller and could backfire on Republicans.
Trump allies, buoyed by polling that shows strong support for cracking down on all illegal immigrants among the MAGA faithful, argue the census gives Democrats an edge and the only solution is mass deportations.
David Sacks, chairman of the president’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, claimed during a February episode of his “All-In Podcast” that “Democrats want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base.”
Sacks alluded to post-coronavirus pandemic intra-state migratory patterns that have seen residents abandoning blue states, including California and New York, to settle in Texas, Florida, and other Southern states.
“As a result of that, blue states are expected to lose nine House seats and electoral votes because of the changing population numbers,” he said. “Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers, and so, for example, in the last election, President Trump would’ve won an additional nine electoral votes if we had an accurate accounting.”
The U.S. census has not asked respondents about their citizenship status since 1950, meaning both legal noncitizen residents and undocumented immigrants are included in state population counts used to apportion U.S. House seats and Electoral College votes. Trump proposed adding a citizenship question during his first term but was blocked in court.
But research from both academics and conservative groups suggests removing undocumented immigrants from the census would shift only a handful of seats — not the sweeping advantage critics claim.
Counting illegal immigrants in the census does give states with higher nonlegal populations more weight in those processes. Yet, analyses conducted by the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies and Oxford University found the exclusion of illegal populations would not have materially changed either House district apportionment or the makeup of the Electoral College, especially when compared to the impact of legal immigrants on population growth.
According to that study, conducted in 2024, the “inclusion of all immigrants” in the 2020 census redistributed 17 House seats — with illegal immigrants accounting for just …
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