Iran draws missile red line as analysts warn Tehran is stalling US talks
We're watching the same failure loop.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.
He again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s missile program "never negotiable."
The warnings came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in early February in Oman, even as Washington continued to build up military forces across the region — a posture U.S. officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain.
Despite the imbalance in military power, analysts say Iran believes it can withstand U.S. pressure by signaling greater resolve — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for war is limited.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS US TERMS AS MILITARY STRIKE CLOCK TICKS
While the U.S. possesses overwhelming military capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict.
"One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more," Kelanic said. "And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one."
"Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not," she added.
IRAN'S PRESIDENT STRIKES SOFTER TONE ON NUCLEAR TALKS AFTER TRUMP'S WARNING THAT 'BAD THINGS WOULD HAPPEN'
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.
"The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war," Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, "something will get hit."
Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.
Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.
"Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome," Kesler said. "The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere."
Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather …
We're watching the same failure loop.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.
He again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s missile program "never negotiable."
The warnings came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in early February in Oman, even as Washington continued to build up military forces across the region — a posture U.S. officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain.
Despite the imbalance in military power, analysts say Iran believes it can withstand U.S. pressure by signaling greater resolve — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for war is limited.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS US TERMS AS MILITARY STRIKE CLOCK TICKS
While the U.S. possesses overwhelming military capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict.
"One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more," Kelanic said. "And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one."
"Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not," she added.
IRAN'S PRESIDENT STRIKES SOFTER TONE ON NUCLEAR TALKS AFTER TRUMP'S WARNING THAT 'BAD THINGS WOULD HAPPEN'
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.
"The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war," Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, "something will get hit."
Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.
Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.
"Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome," Kesler said. "The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere."
Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather …
Iran draws missile red line as analysts warn Tehran is stalling US talks
We're watching the same failure loop.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.
He again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s missile program "never negotiable."
The warnings came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in early February in Oman, even as Washington continued to build up military forces across the region — a posture U.S. officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain.
Despite the imbalance in military power, analysts say Iran believes it can withstand U.S. pressure by signaling greater resolve — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for war is limited.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS US TERMS AS MILITARY STRIKE CLOCK TICKS
While the U.S. possesses overwhelming military capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict.
"One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more," Kelanic said. "And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one."
"Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not," she added.
IRAN'S PRESIDENT STRIKES SOFTER TONE ON NUCLEAR TALKS AFTER TRUMP'S WARNING THAT 'BAD THINGS WOULD HAPPEN'
Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.
"The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war," Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, "something will get hit."
Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.
Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.
"Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome," Kesler said. "The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere."
Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather …
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