Battered in Ukraine, Russia races to rearm — but questions linger over its military strength
This affects the entire country.
Russia’s military has been badly battered by its failure to conquer Ukraine, but Moscow is now rebuilding its war machine for the long haul, according to a new assessment from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, even as the force it is fielding relies more on mass and attrition than military quality.
The report says Russia has suffered catastrophic losses since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with an estimated 1 million soldiers killed or severely wounded, draining its ranks and forcing the Kremlin to rely on mass mobilization rather than professional military strength.
Despite those losses, Estonian intelligence says the Kremlin is compensating by shifting toward mass and attrition, dramatically expanding weapons production and reorganizing its military around volume rather than quality, even as fighting in Ukraine continues.
ZELENSKYY REVEALS 55,000 UKRAINIAN DEATH TOLL AS PEACE TALKS CONTINUE
Taken together, the assessment portrays a Russian military that has failed to defeat Ukraine, suffered historic manpower losses, and rebuilt around quantity over quality — leaving its true combat effectiveness increasingly in question.
Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17 times that of 2021, a surge the report says points to preparation for future conflicts rather than short-term battle needs, including the rebuilding of strategic stockpiles depleted during the war. Russia produced roughly 7 million artillery rounds in 2025 alone, according to the assessment.
The assessment cautions that Russia remains a diminished force compared with pre-war expectations — reliant on poorly trained recruits, convicts, foreign nationals and aging equipment — but warns that a degraded military rebuilt around attrition still poses a long-term challenge for Ukraine, NATO and European security.
Estonia, a frontline NATO state bordering Russia, has built one of Europe’s most detailed intelligence pictures of Russian military activity through its proximity, regional expertise and intelligence sharing with allies. Its annual assessments are closely read within NATO for its granular focus on Russia’s capabilities, limitations and long-term planning.
Nearly four years into the war, Estonia’s intelligence service says Russia has failed to achieve its core objective of subjugating Ukraine, which it describes as "more determinedly independent than ever before."
President Donald Trump recently mocked Moscow’s performance, calling Russia a "paper tiger" in a Truth Social post and questioning how a superpower could spend "four …
This affects the entire country.
Russia’s military has been badly battered by its failure to conquer Ukraine, but Moscow is now rebuilding its war machine for the long haul, according to a new assessment from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, even as the force it is fielding relies more on mass and attrition than military quality.
The report says Russia has suffered catastrophic losses since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with an estimated 1 million soldiers killed or severely wounded, draining its ranks and forcing the Kremlin to rely on mass mobilization rather than professional military strength.
Despite those losses, Estonian intelligence says the Kremlin is compensating by shifting toward mass and attrition, dramatically expanding weapons production and reorganizing its military around volume rather than quality, even as fighting in Ukraine continues.
ZELENSKYY REVEALS 55,000 UKRAINIAN DEATH TOLL AS PEACE TALKS CONTINUE
Taken together, the assessment portrays a Russian military that has failed to defeat Ukraine, suffered historic manpower losses, and rebuilt around quantity over quality — leaving its true combat effectiveness increasingly in question.
Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17 times that of 2021, a surge the report says points to preparation for future conflicts rather than short-term battle needs, including the rebuilding of strategic stockpiles depleted during the war. Russia produced roughly 7 million artillery rounds in 2025 alone, according to the assessment.
The assessment cautions that Russia remains a diminished force compared with pre-war expectations — reliant on poorly trained recruits, convicts, foreign nationals and aging equipment — but warns that a degraded military rebuilt around attrition still poses a long-term challenge for Ukraine, NATO and European security.
Estonia, a frontline NATO state bordering Russia, has built one of Europe’s most detailed intelligence pictures of Russian military activity through its proximity, regional expertise and intelligence sharing with allies. Its annual assessments are closely read within NATO for its granular focus on Russia’s capabilities, limitations and long-term planning.
Nearly four years into the war, Estonia’s intelligence service says Russia has failed to achieve its core objective of subjugating Ukraine, which it describes as "more determinedly independent than ever before."
President Donald Trump recently mocked Moscow’s performance, calling Russia a "paper tiger" in a Truth Social post and questioning how a superpower could spend "four …
Battered in Ukraine, Russia races to rearm — but questions linger over its military strength
This affects the entire country.
Russia’s military has been badly battered by its failure to conquer Ukraine, but Moscow is now rebuilding its war machine for the long haul, according to a new assessment from Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, even as the force it is fielding relies more on mass and attrition than military quality.
The report says Russia has suffered catastrophic losses since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with an estimated 1 million soldiers killed or severely wounded, draining its ranks and forcing the Kremlin to rely on mass mobilization rather than professional military strength.
Despite those losses, Estonian intelligence says the Kremlin is compensating by shifting toward mass and attrition, dramatically expanding weapons production and reorganizing its military around volume rather than quality, even as fighting in Ukraine continues.
ZELENSKYY REVEALS 55,000 UKRAINIAN DEATH TOLL AS PEACE TALKS CONTINUE
Taken together, the assessment portrays a Russian military that has failed to defeat Ukraine, suffered historic manpower losses, and rebuilt around quantity over quality — leaving its true combat effectiveness increasingly in question.
Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17 times that of 2021, a surge the report says points to preparation for future conflicts rather than short-term battle needs, including the rebuilding of strategic stockpiles depleted during the war. Russia produced roughly 7 million artillery rounds in 2025 alone, according to the assessment.
The assessment cautions that Russia remains a diminished force compared with pre-war expectations — reliant on poorly trained recruits, convicts, foreign nationals and aging equipment — but warns that a degraded military rebuilt around attrition still poses a long-term challenge for Ukraine, NATO and European security.
Estonia, a frontline NATO state bordering Russia, has built one of Europe’s most detailed intelligence pictures of Russian military activity through its proximity, regional expertise and intelligence sharing with allies. Its annual assessments are closely read within NATO for its granular focus on Russia’s capabilities, limitations and long-term planning.
Nearly four years into the war, Estonia’s intelligence service says Russia has failed to achieve its core objective of subjugating Ukraine, which it describes as "more determinedly independent than ever before."
President Donald Trump recently mocked Moscow’s performance, calling Russia a "paper tiger" in a Truth Social post and questioning how a superpower could spend "four …
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