Trump’s views on NATO could spark Russian opportunities in Europe
Who's accountable for the results?
President Donald Trump’s complicated relationship with NATO will shape how far Russia goes to further fracture those ties, according to a new report from Harvard University’s Belfer Center.
Trump has pressured America’s NATO allies to increase their own defense spending and capabilities to reduce their reliance on U.S. support since returning to office, raising concerns in capitals across Europe.
European countries have accused Russia of repeatedly carrying out “hybrid” or “gray zone” attacks, which can include jamming communication systems, cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, the cutting of undersea cables, and more moves that don’t rise to the level of direct kinetic military action.
These gray zone operations have largely targeted countries along NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia’s borders. In recent months, these operations have appeared to come more frequently and more brazenly.
The Harvard report concludes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance,” and that it will likely continue their gray zone campaign against Eastern European countries “culminating in a limited military incursion into NATO’s northeastern flank.”
Since last September, Russian drones have entered Polish and Romanian airspace, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, a Russian jet flew over a German Navy frigate in the Baltic Sea, and airports in Denmark and Norway had to shut down temporarily due to unknown drone activity.
There is currently an “unprecedented volume and frequency of potentially lethal attacks,” Laura Cooper, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia during the Biden administration, said in December.
A possible option the Harvard paper identified would be for Russia to target a symbolic area near Russia or Moscow-friendly Belarus, such as the Estonian city of Narva, which is along Estonia’s border with Russia in the northeastern corner of the Baltic nation.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released its 2026 threat report on Tuesday, in which a foreword from Director General Kaupo Rosin states: “In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year.”
One of the Estonian intelligence report’s top takeaways, however, is that “Russia’s immediate and more ambitious aims both serve to expand its influence and …
Who's accountable for the results?
President Donald Trump’s complicated relationship with NATO will shape how far Russia goes to further fracture those ties, according to a new report from Harvard University’s Belfer Center.
Trump has pressured America’s NATO allies to increase their own defense spending and capabilities to reduce their reliance on U.S. support since returning to office, raising concerns in capitals across Europe.
European countries have accused Russia of repeatedly carrying out “hybrid” or “gray zone” attacks, which can include jamming communication systems, cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, the cutting of undersea cables, and more moves that don’t rise to the level of direct kinetic military action.
These gray zone operations have largely targeted countries along NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia’s borders. In recent months, these operations have appeared to come more frequently and more brazenly.
The Harvard report concludes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance,” and that it will likely continue their gray zone campaign against Eastern European countries “culminating in a limited military incursion into NATO’s northeastern flank.”
Since last September, Russian drones have entered Polish and Romanian airspace, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, a Russian jet flew over a German Navy frigate in the Baltic Sea, and airports in Denmark and Norway had to shut down temporarily due to unknown drone activity.
There is currently an “unprecedented volume and frequency of potentially lethal attacks,” Laura Cooper, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia during the Biden administration, said in December.
A possible option the Harvard paper identified would be for Russia to target a symbolic area near Russia or Moscow-friendly Belarus, such as the Estonian city of Narva, which is along Estonia’s border with Russia in the northeastern corner of the Baltic nation.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released its 2026 threat report on Tuesday, in which a foreword from Director General Kaupo Rosin states: “In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year.”
One of the Estonian intelligence report’s top takeaways, however, is that “Russia’s immediate and more ambitious aims both serve to expand its influence and …
Trump’s views on NATO could spark Russian opportunities in Europe
Who's accountable for the results?
President Donald Trump’s complicated relationship with NATO will shape how far Russia goes to further fracture those ties, according to a new report from Harvard University’s Belfer Center.
Trump has pressured America’s NATO allies to increase their own defense spending and capabilities to reduce their reliance on U.S. support since returning to office, raising concerns in capitals across Europe.
European countries have accused Russia of repeatedly carrying out “hybrid” or “gray zone” attacks, which can include jamming communication systems, cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, the cutting of undersea cables, and more moves that don’t rise to the level of direct kinetic military action.
These gray zone operations have largely targeted countries along NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia’s borders. In recent months, these operations have appeared to come more frequently and more brazenly.
The Harvard report concludes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance,” and that it will likely continue their gray zone campaign against Eastern European countries “culminating in a limited military incursion into NATO’s northeastern flank.”
Since last September, Russian drones have entered Polish and Romanian airspace, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, a Russian jet flew over a German Navy frigate in the Baltic Sea, and airports in Denmark and Norway had to shut down temporarily due to unknown drone activity.
There is currently an “unprecedented volume and frequency of potentially lethal attacks,” Laura Cooper, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia during the Biden administration, said in December.
A possible option the Harvard paper identified would be for Russia to target a symbolic area near Russia or Moscow-friendly Belarus, such as the Estonian city of Narva, which is along Estonia’s border with Russia in the northeastern corner of the Baltic nation.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released its 2026 threat report on Tuesday, in which a foreword from Director General Kaupo Rosin states: “In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year.”
One of the Estonian intelligence report’s top takeaways, however, is that “Russia’s immediate and more ambitious aims both serve to expand its influence and …
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