Albert Ward: Reform UK refute suggestions they’ve ‘hit a ceiling’ but they have and here’s why
Confidence requires clarity.
Albert Ward is a Senior Research Fellow at More in Common.
Reform’s recent polling has led many to ask whether the party has already gone as far as it can.
The recent defections of Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell have actually come at a moment when the party’s position is far weaker than its poll lead suggests. Indeed, it has even dipped in recent polls.
In More in Common’s latest poll, Reform is ahead on roughly 30 per cent, nearly 10 points clear of Labour. That is a serious level of support for a party that is still young. But mid-term polls tend to reward parties that serve as vehicles for dissatisfaction. Staying there, month after month, all the way to a general election, will be far harder than getting there, let alone making further gains.
Why is this? Firstly, there is a limited pool of voters left for Reform to win. Beyond those who already vote for the party, only around one in five say they would even consider doing so. That does not mean Reform cannot grow, but it does suggest that the party is already drawing from a fairly defined constituency.
Most importantly, the group Reform needs to win over next does not look like its core constituency. The voters who say they might be open to Reform tend to be more moderate in their instincts and, on some issues, closer to the centre (or centre-right) of public opinion. For instance, while 52 per cent of Reform’s 2024 voters oppose Britain’s net zero target, only 39 per cent of their new supporters are opposed to it.
And Reform’s voters are not as lost to the Conservatives as you might think. Only 29 per cent of Reform supporters rule out voting Conservative in future, compared with 75 per cent who rule out voting Labour. Among those who have switched from the Conservatives to Reform since the 2024 election, only eight per cent say they would rule out voting Conservative again. These voters could well drift back to the Conservatives.
Perhaps most worryingly for the party, Reform’s headline vote share masks much weaker scores on trust and governing credibility. In the group of voters who might consider voting Reform but do not currently do so, the most common reason for hesitation is the party’s lack of government experience, with over a third saying so. The second most common reason is Nigel Farage’s association with Donald Trump, a deeply unpopular figure in Britain, even among new Reform supporters, where he has a -13 per cent approval rating.
One Conservative supporter put it bluntly to us in a focus group: ‘They don’t have experience, and I think you can see that. All the silly infighting; they’ve just made themselves look fools.’ A Reform supporter suggested the party needed time to prove itself: ‘I’d be concerned if we had a general election tomorrow. I don’t think they’re …
Confidence requires clarity.
Albert Ward is a Senior Research Fellow at More in Common.
Reform’s recent polling has led many to ask whether the party has already gone as far as it can.
The recent defections of Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell have actually come at a moment when the party’s position is far weaker than its poll lead suggests. Indeed, it has even dipped in recent polls.
In More in Common’s latest poll, Reform is ahead on roughly 30 per cent, nearly 10 points clear of Labour. That is a serious level of support for a party that is still young. But mid-term polls tend to reward parties that serve as vehicles for dissatisfaction. Staying there, month after month, all the way to a general election, will be far harder than getting there, let alone making further gains.
Why is this? Firstly, there is a limited pool of voters left for Reform to win. Beyond those who already vote for the party, only around one in five say they would even consider doing so. That does not mean Reform cannot grow, but it does suggest that the party is already drawing from a fairly defined constituency.
Most importantly, the group Reform needs to win over next does not look like its core constituency. The voters who say they might be open to Reform tend to be more moderate in their instincts and, on some issues, closer to the centre (or centre-right) of public opinion. For instance, while 52 per cent of Reform’s 2024 voters oppose Britain’s net zero target, only 39 per cent of their new supporters are opposed to it.
And Reform’s voters are not as lost to the Conservatives as you might think. Only 29 per cent of Reform supporters rule out voting Conservative in future, compared with 75 per cent who rule out voting Labour. Among those who have switched from the Conservatives to Reform since the 2024 election, only eight per cent say they would rule out voting Conservative again. These voters could well drift back to the Conservatives.
Perhaps most worryingly for the party, Reform’s headline vote share masks much weaker scores on trust and governing credibility. In the group of voters who might consider voting Reform but do not currently do so, the most common reason for hesitation is the party’s lack of government experience, with over a third saying so. The second most common reason is Nigel Farage’s association with Donald Trump, a deeply unpopular figure in Britain, even among new Reform supporters, where he has a -13 per cent approval rating.
One Conservative supporter put it bluntly to us in a focus group: ‘They don’t have experience, and I think you can see that. All the silly infighting; they’ve just made themselves look fools.’ A Reform supporter suggested the party needed time to prove itself: ‘I’d be concerned if we had a general election tomorrow. I don’t think they’re …
Albert Ward: Reform UK refute suggestions they’ve ‘hit a ceiling’ but they have and here’s why
Confidence requires clarity.
Albert Ward is a Senior Research Fellow at More in Common.
Reform’s recent polling has led many to ask whether the party has already gone as far as it can.
The recent defections of Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell have actually come at a moment when the party’s position is far weaker than its poll lead suggests. Indeed, it has even dipped in recent polls.
In More in Common’s latest poll, Reform is ahead on roughly 30 per cent, nearly 10 points clear of Labour. That is a serious level of support for a party that is still young. But mid-term polls tend to reward parties that serve as vehicles for dissatisfaction. Staying there, month after month, all the way to a general election, will be far harder than getting there, let alone making further gains.
Why is this? Firstly, there is a limited pool of voters left for Reform to win. Beyond those who already vote for the party, only around one in five say they would even consider doing so. That does not mean Reform cannot grow, but it does suggest that the party is already drawing from a fairly defined constituency.
Most importantly, the group Reform needs to win over next does not look like its core constituency. The voters who say they might be open to Reform tend to be more moderate in their instincts and, on some issues, closer to the centre (or centre-right) of public opinion. For instance, while 52 per cent of Reform’s 2024 voters oppose Britain’s net zero target, only 39 per cent of their new supporters are opposed to it.
And Reform’s voters are not as lost to the Conservatives as you might think. Only 29 per cent of Reform supporters rule out voting Conservative in future, compared with 75 per cent who rule out voting Labour. Among those who have switched from the Conservatives to Reform since the 2024 election, only eight per cent say they would rule out voting Conservative again. These voters could well drift back to the Conservatives.
Perhaps most worryingly for the party, Reform’s headline vote share masks much weaker scores on trust and governing credibility. In the group of voters who might consider voting Reform but do not currently do so, the most common reason for hesitation is the party’s lack of government experience, with over a third saying so. The second most common reason is Nigel Farage’s association with Donald Trump, a deeply unpopular figure in Britain, even among new Reform supporters, where he has a -13 per cent approval rating.
One Conservative supporter put it bluntly to us in a focus group: ‘They don’t have experience, and I think you can see that. All the silly infighting; they’ve just made themselves look fools.’ A Reform supporter suggested the party needed time to prove itself: ‘I’d be concerned if we had a general election tomorrow. I don’t think they’re …
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