(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Official Data Make Clear that Tariff-Led Inflation Claims Remain Pretty Weak
How is this acceptable?
This week’s been a really bad week for Trump, Trump-onomics, and tariff haters economically – meaning it’s been a good week economically for the country at large. Because today, on the heels of good official jobs numbers and a good official initial jobless claims release came an equally good official consumer inflation report today.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, keeper of the inflation statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set several multi-months bests in January and presented at worst mixed evidence that the tariffs imposed by President Trump in his second term have added much to upward price pressures.
Headline CPI rose in January at an annual rate of 2.39 percent – not only cooler than December’s 2.65 percent, but the slowest pace since last May’s 2.38 percent.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up just 0.17 percent – only about half as slow as the December read of 0.30 percent and its best showing also since last May (0.10 percent).
The core inflation results strip out food and energy costs because they’re supposedly volatile for reasons having little to do with the economy’s underlying vulnerability to inflation. Their January yearly increase of 2.51 percent was an improvement on December’s 2..65 percent pace and the most sluggish rate since the 1.65 percent recorded back in March, 2021.
One setback – on a monthly basis, core inflation worsened by 0.30 percent, faster than December’s 0.23 percent.
The new January release also confirms that the second Trump 2.0 administration’s record on overall affordability still tops the Biden performance despite the former’s tariffs that were supposed to send prices sky high.
So far during Trump 2.0 (and starting last February – the first full month of the president’s second term), headline CPI has increased by 2.16 percent. The figure for the comparable final eleven Biden months? This cost of living measure climbed by 2.57 percent.
That 2.16 percent Trump figure for January is actually higher than December’s 1.96 percent. But it’s still very close to the two percent annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve ((the U.S. government’s main inflation-fighting body) (according to a separate living cost measure).
The Biden-Trump core inflation comparison favors Mr. Trump even more strongly. Between February, 2025 and last month, such prices rose by 2.25 percent. That’s also worse than the December figure of 1.96 percent. But it’s considerably better than the rate during the same preceding Biden months (2.88 percent).
And the post-“Liberation Day” results, which most economists and pundits were certain would be much hotter because of the slew of multi-decade-high tariffs imposed by the president last April? Nothing of the kind is visible from the numbers.
Between April, 2025 and last month, consumer prices advanced by 1.96 percent. During the comparable final pre-tariff Biden months of April, 2024 through January, 2025, they were up just a slightly better 1.85 percent. And the gap narrowed between last December and January.
Even better from a Trump-ian and tariff-y standpoint has been the behavior of core inflation since Liberation Day. During the …
How is this acceptable?
This week’s been a really bad week for Trump, Trump-onomics, and tariff haters economically – meaning it’s been a good week economically for the country at large. Because today, on the heels of good official jobs numbers and a good official initial jobless claims release came an equally good official consumer inflation report today.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, keeper of the inflation statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set several multi-months bests in January and presented at worst mixed evidence that the tariffs imposed by President Trump in his second term have added much to upward price pressures.
Headline CPI rose in January at an annual rate of 2.39 percent – not only cooler than December’s 2.65 percent, but the slowest pace since last May’s 2.38 percent.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up just 0.17 percent – only about half as slow as the December read of 0.30 percent and its best showing also since last May (0.10 percent).
The core inflation results strip out food and energy costs because they’re supposedly volatile for reasons having little to do with the economy’s underlying vulnerability to inflation. Their January yearly increase of 2.51 percent was an improvement on December’s 2..65 percent pace and the most sluggish rate since the 1.65 percent recorded back in March, 2021.
One setback – on a monthly basis, core inflation worsened by 0.30 percent, faster than December’s 0.23 percent.
The new January release also confirms that the second Trump 2.0 administration’s record on overall affordability still tops the Biden performance despite the former’s tariffs that were supposed to send prices sky high.
So far during Trump 2.0 (and starting last February – the first full month of the president’s second term), headline CPI has increased by 2.16 percent. The figure for the comparable final eleven Biden months? This cost of living measure climbed by 2.57 percent.
That 2.16 percent Trump figure for January is actually higher than December’s 1.96 percent. But it’s still very close to the two percent annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve ((the U.S. government’s main inflation-fighting body) (according to a separate living cost measure).
The Biden-Trump core inflation comparison favors Mr. Trump even more strongly. Between February, 2025 and last month, such prices rose by 2.25 percent. That’s also worse than the December figure of 1.96 percent. But it’s considerably better than the rate during the same preceding Biden months (2.88 percent).
And the post-“Liberation Day” results, which most economists and pundits were certain would be much hotter because of the slew of multi-decade-high tariffs imposed by the president last April? Nothing of the kind is visible from the numbers.
Between April, 2025 and last month, consumer prices advanced by 1.96 percent. During the comparable final pre-tariff Biden months of April, 2024 through January, 2025, they were up just a slightly better 1.85 percent. And the gap narrowed between last December and January.
Even better from a Trump-ian and tariff-y standpoint has been the behavior of core inflation since Liberation Day. During the …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Official Data Make Clear that Tariff-Led Inflation Claims Remain Pretty Weak
How is this acceptable?
This week’s been a really bad week for Trump, Trump-onomics, and tariff haters economically – meaning it’s been a good week economically for the country at large. Because today, on the heels of good official jobs numbers and a good official initial jobless claims release came an equally good official consumer inflation report today.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, keeper of the inflation statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set several multi-months bests in January and presented at worst mixed evidence that the tariffs imposed by President Trump in his second term have added much to upward price pressures.
Headline CPI rose in January at an annual rate of 2.39 percent – not only cooler than December’s 2.65 percent, but the slowest pace since last May’s 2.38 percent.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up just 0.17 percent – only about half as slow as the December read of 0.30 percent and its best showing also since last May (0.10 percent).
The core inflation results strip out food and energy costs because they’re supposedly volatile for reasons having little to do with the economy’s underlying vulnerability to inflation. Their January yearly increase of 2.51 percent was an improvement on December’s 2..65 percent pace and the most sluggish rate since the 1.65 percent recorded back in March, 2021.
One setback – on a monthly basis, core inflation worsened by 0.30 percent, faster than December’s 0.23 percent.
The new January release also confirms that the second Trump 2.0 administration’s record on overall affordability still tops the Biden performance despite the former’s tariffs that were supposed to send prices sky high.
So far during Trump 2.0 (and starting last February – the first full month of the president’s second term), headline CPI has increased by 2.16 percent. The figure for the comparable final eleven Biden months? This cost of living measure climbed by 2.57 percent.
That 2.16 percent Trump figure for January is actually higher than December’s 1.96 percent. But it’s still very close to the two percent annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve ((the U.S. government’s main inflation-fighting body) (according to a separate living cost measure).
The Biden-Trump core inflation comparison favors Mr. Trump even more strongly. Between February, 2025 and last month, such prices rose by 2.25 percent. That’s also worse than the December figure of 1.96 percent. But it’s considerably better than the rate during the same preceding Biden months (2.88 percent).
And the post-“Liberation Day” results, which most economists and pundits were certain would be much hotter because of the slew of multi-decade-high tariffs imposed by the president last April? Nothing of the kind is visible from the numbers.
Between April, 2025 and last month, consumer prices advanced by 1.96 percent. During the comparable final pre-tariff Biden months of April, 2024 through January, 2025, they were up just a slightly better 1.85 percent. And the gap narrowed between last December and January.
Even better from a Trump-ian and tariff-y standpoint has been the behavior of core inflation since Liberation Day. During the …
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