(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why That Last Official U.S. Jobs Report was Especially Good
This affects the entire country.
Before it gets too far back in our rear view mirrors, it’s definitely worth reporting on how strong many of the internals were in last week’s official U.S. jobs report (for January).
Not only were the headline figures good – with total employment rising by the most (130,000) since last December (237,000) and a main unemployment rate of 4.3 percent representing the best such result since the identical level in August.
But the employment-to-population ratio – which measures the share of the working age population (aged 16 and over) with a job – was back up to its highest level (59.8 percent) since last April (60 percent).
The average mean period of unemployment (23.9 weeks) was down to its lowest level since last June (23.1 weeks).
The main indicator of underemployment – the so-called U-6 rate – dropped from 8.4 percent to eight percent (its lowest since last August’s 8.1 percent).
The number of Americans employed only part-time because a full-time job couldn’t be found dropped all the way from 5.341 million in December to 4.888 million. That was the biggest monthly decrease in absolute terms since October, 2022 (4.131 million to 3.676 million).
Multiple job holders as a share of those employed declined to 5.3 percent – a post-July, 2025 (5.1 percent) best.
Unemployment for women dipped to 4.3 percent – back to where it was last August.
January’s African American joblessness hit 7.2 percent – its best monthly result since last July’s identical number.
Youth unemployment (ages 16 to 19) is still way too high (13.6 percent). But that’s the best such result since last May’s 13.4 percent.
The jobless rate for workers under 25 years of age lacking a high school diploma sank to 5.2 percent – the lowest since January, 2025.
At the same time, the January jobs results weren’t all roses.
First, they showed that revisions in employment totals for November and December were revised down by 17,000 altogether – and the preliminary results were pretty weak. (At the same time, due mainly to the Trump border and deportation policies, there’s lots of evidence that the numbers of net new jobs the economy needs to create to keep unemployment from rising has decreased considerably – indeed to the levels seen lately. See, e.g., here.)
In addition, American job creation continues to be very narrowly based. Positions that even Trump administration officials have (IMO, rightly) belittled as “government adjacent” (that is, government-subsidized) jobs accounted for an enormous 79.65 percent of all the January net new employment officially characterized as “private sector” jobs.
That’s especially worrisome if you believe, as I’ve been long arguing (e.g., here), that this trend is worrisome because the real private sector is more innovative and more productive than parts of the economy dominated by politicians’ decisions.
Also in January, unemployment for workers with a high school diploma but no college increased to 4.5 percent. That’s still low by historical standards, but it was the highest level since November, 2024’s identical rate.
In an especially discouraging development, the unemployment rate for veterans jumped from 3.9 percent to …
This affects the entire country.
Before it gets too far back in our rear view mirrors, it’s definitely worth reporting on how strong many of the internals were in last week’s official U.S. jobs report (for January).
Not only were the headline figures good – with total employment rising by the most (130,000) since last December (237,000) and a main unemployment rate of 4.3 percent representing the best such result since the identical level in August.
But the employment-to-population ratio – which measures the share of the working age population (aged 16 and over) with a job – was back up to its highest level (59.8 percent) since last April (60 percent).
The average mean period of unemployment (23.9 weeks) was down to its lowest level since last June (23.1 weeks).
The main indicator of underemployment – the so-called U-6 rate – dropped from 8.4 percent to eight percent (its lowest since last August’s 8.1 percent).
The number of Americans employed only part-time because a full-time job couldn’t be found dropped all the way from 5.341 million in December to 4.888 million. That was the biggest monthly decrease in absolute terms since October, 2022 (4.131 million to 3.676 million).
Multiple job holders as a share of those employed declined to 5.3 percent – a post-July, 2025 (5.1 percent) best.
Unemployment for women dipped to 4.3 percent – back to where it was last August.
January’s African American joblessness hit 7.2 percent – its best monthly result since last July’s identical number.
Youth unemployment (ages 16 to 19) is still way too high (13.6 percent). But that’s the best such result since last May’s 13.4 percent.
The jobless rate for workers under 25 years of age lacking a high school diploma sank to 5.2 percent – the lowest since January, 2025.
At the same time, the January jobs results weren’t all roses.
First, they showed that revisions in employment totals for November and December were revised down by 17,000 altogether – and the preliminary results were pretty weak. (At the same time, due mainly to the Trump border and deportation policies, there’s lots of evidence that the numbers of net new jobs the economy needs to create to keep unemployment from rising has decreased considerably – indeed to the levels seen lately. See, e.g., here.)
In addition, American job creation continues to be very narrowly based. Positions that even Trump administration officials have (IMO, rightly) belittled as “government adjacent” (that is, government-subsidized) jobs accounted for an enormous 79.65 percent of all the January net new employment officially characterized as “private sector” jobs.
That’s especially worrisome if you believe, as I’ve been long arguing (e.g., here), that this trend is worrisome because the real private sector is more innovative and more productive than parts of the economy dominated by politicians’ decisions.
Also in January, unemployment for workers with a high school diploma but no college increased to 4.5 percent. That’s still low by historical standards, but it was the highest level since November, 2024’s identical rate.
In an especially discouraging development, the unemployment rate for veterans jumped from 3.9 percent to …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Why That Last Official U.S. Jobs Report was Especially Good
This affects the entire country.
Before it gets too far back in our rear view mirrors, it’s definitely worth reporting on how strong many of the internals were in last week’s official U.S. jobs report (for January).
Not only were the headline figures good – with total employment rising by the most (130,000) since last December (237,000) and a main unemployment rate of 4.3 percent representing the best such result since the identical level in August.
But the employment-to-population ratio – which measures the share of the working age population (aged 16 and over) with a job – was back up to its highest level (59.8 percent) since last April (60 percent).
The average mean period of unemployment (23.9 weeks) was down to its lowest level since last June (23.1 weeks).
The main indicator of underemployment – the so-called U-6 rate – dropped from 8.4 percent to eight percent (its lowest since last August’s 8.1 percent).
The number of Americans employed only part-time because a full-time job couldn’t be found dropped all the way from 5.341 million in December to 4.888 million. That was the biggest monthly decrease in absolute terms since October, 2022 (4.131 million to 3.676 million).
Multiple job holders as a share of those employed declined to 5.3 percent – a post-July, 2025 (5.1 percent) best.
Unemployment for women dipped to 4.3 percent – back to where it was last August.
January’s African American joblessness hit 7.2 percent – its best monthly result since last July’s identical number.
Youth unemployment (ages 16 to 19) is still way too high (13.6 percent). But that’s the best such result since last May’s 13.4 percent.
The jobless rate for workers under 25 years of age lacking a high school diploma sank to 5.2 percent – the lowest since January, 2025.
At the same time, the January jobs results weren’t all roses.
First, they showed that revisions in employment totals for November and December were revised down by 17,000 altogether – and the preliminary results were pretty weak. (At the same time, due mainly to the Trump border and deportation policies, there’s lots of evidence that the numbers of net new jobs the economy needs to create to keep unemployment from rising has decreased considerably – indeed to the levels seen lately. See, e.g., here.)
In addition, American job creation continues to be very narrowly based. Positions that even Trump administration officials have (IMO, rightly) belittled as “government adjacent” (that is, government-subsidized) jobs accounted for an enormous 79.65 percent of all the January net new employment officially characterized as “private sector” jobs.
That’s especially worrisome if you believe, as I’ve been long arguing (e.g., here), that this trend is worrisome because the real private sector is more innovative and more productive than parts of the economy dominated by politicians’ decisions.
Also in January, unemployment for workers with a high school diploma but no college increased to 4.5 percent. That’s still low by historical standards, but it was the highest level since November, 2024’s identical rate.
In an especially discouraging development, the unemployment rate for veterans jumped from 3.9 percent to …
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