Americans are moving in great numbers, and scrambling the Electoral College map
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Red and blue states are fighting over redistricting, with an eye on this year’s midterm elections. The majority party’s strategy in each state is to maximize its advantage by changing the boundaries of the other party’s congressional districts. The redrawn districts dilute historic voters of the opposition party so much that they almost needn’t bother showing up on Election Day.
Yet there’s another pre-voting contest that is getting far less attention in the press: the one where Americans are voting with their feet.
Internal migration matters a great deal in the House of Representatives, capped by law at only 435 districts across the country, and in the Electoral College as well. The total Electoral College vote equals the total number of representatives and senators (100) from the states, plus three votes for the District of Columbia, for 538 total. The ticket that can cobble together at least 270 of those votes wins the presidency.
We might understand this better by thinking of musical chairs. Every one of those chairs that gets yanked from a state translates into a loss of influence. But unlike in the game, the chairs don’t go away; they simply get reassigned to states whose populations have swelled. More chairs mean greater influence when it comes to controlling Congress and the White House.
Reapportionment of districts happens every 10 years, following the national census. So the next reshuffle will come in 2031, after the 2030 census.
At mid-decade, things are looking pretty good for Republicans. That’s because people are moving in significant numbers from Democratic strongholds such as California and New York to more Republican-leaning states such as Texas and Florida.
When the music stops
The American Redistricting Project has released one map with projections that has Texas gaining four House seats along with four corresponding Electoral College votes, Florida gaining two seats, and Arizona, Idaho, Utah, North Carolina, and Georgia gaining one seat each.
The big loser on this map would be California, down four seats, to 48. Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would each lose one seat. The net swing would be nine seats away from blue states and a gain of eight seats for red states. Plus one more seat each for the more politically divided purple states.
Some professional political shot-callers have begun to digest what this could mean. Sean Trende, senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics, …
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Red and blue states are fighting over redistricting, with an eye on this year’s midterm elections. The majority party’s strategy in each state is to maximize its advantage by changing the boundaries of the other party’s congressional districts. The redrawn districts dilute historic voters of the opposition party so much that they almost needn’t bother showing up on Election Day.
Yet there’s another pre-voting contest that is getting far less attention in the press: the one where Americans are voting with their feet.
Internal migration matters a great deal in the House of Representatives, capped by law at only 435 districts across the country, and in the Electoral College as well. The total Electoral College vote equals the total number of representatives and senators (100) from the states, plus three votes for the District of Columbia, for 538 total. The ticket that can cobble together at least 270 of those votes wins the presidency.
We might understand this better by thinking of musical chairs. Every one of those chairs that gets yanked from a state translates into a loss of influence. But unlike in the game, the chairs don’t go away; they simply get reassigned to states whose populations have swelled. More chairs mean greater influence when it comes to controlling Congress and the White House.
Reapportionment of districts happens every 10 years, following the national census. So the next reshuffle will come in 2031, after the 2030 census.
At mid-decade, things are looking pretty good for Republicans. That’s because people are moving in significant numbers from Democratic strongholds such as California and New York to more Republican-leaning states such as Texas and Florida.
When the music stops
The American Redistricting Project has released one map with projections that has Texas gaining four House seats along with four corresponding Electoral College votes, Florida gaining two seats, and Arizona, Idaho, Utah, North Carolina, and Georgia gaining one seat each.
The big loser on this map would be California, down four seats, to 48. Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would each lose one seat. The net swing would be nine seats away from blue states and a gain of eight seats for red states. Plus one more seat each for the more politically divided purple states.
Some professional political shot-callers have begun to digest what this could mean. Sean Trende, senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics, …
Americans are moving in great numbers, and scrambling the Electoral College map
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Red and blue states are fighting over redistricting, with an eye on this year’s midterm elections. The majority party’s strategy in each state is to maximize its advantage by changing the boundaries of the other party’s congressional districts. The redrawn districts dilute historic voters of the opposition party so much that they almost needn’t bother showing up on Election Day.
Yet there’s another pre-voting contest that is getting far less attention in the press: the one where Americans are voting with their feet.
Internal migration matters a great deal in the House of Representatives, capped by law at only 435 districts across the country, and in the Electoral College as well. The total Electoral College vote equals the total number of representatives and senators (100) from the states, plus three votes for the District of Columbia, for 538 total. The ticket that can cobble together at least 270 of those votes wins the presidency.
We might understand this better by thinking of musical chairs. Every one of those chairs that gets yanked from a state translates into a loss of influence. But unlike in the game, the chairs don’t go away; they simply get reassigned to states whose populations have swelled. More chairs mean greater influence when it comes to controlling Congress and the White House.
Reapportionment of districts happens every 10 years, following the national census. So the next reshuffle will come in 2031, after the 2030 census.
At mid-decade, things are looking pretty good for Republicans. That’s because people are moving in significant numbers from Democratic strongholds such as California and New York to more Republican-leaning states such as Texas and Florida.
When the music stops
The American Redistricting Project has released one map with projections that has Texas gaining four House seats along with four corresponding Electoral College votes, Florida gaining two seats, and Arizona, Idaho, Utah, North Carolina, and Georgia gaining one seat each.
The big loser on this map would be California, down four seats, to 48. Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would each lose one seat. The net swing would be nine seats away from blue states and a gain of eight seats for red states. Plus one more seat each for the more politically divided purple states.
Some professional political shot-callers have begun to digest what this could mean. Sean Trende, senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics, …
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