Scarlett Maguire: Trump is now underwater on immigration. What can UK politicians learn from this?
This affects the entire country.
Scarlett Maguire is a pollster, and founder of Merlin Strategy.
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election promising improvements to ordinary American’s cost of living and tough action on the border.
Even with public opinion split aggressively on partisan lines, there was still relative optimism about what he could achieve on those two key issues for the American public, and he began his second term in the White House with positive approval ratings on both issues.
However, American voters’ attitudes towards the controversial president have cooled significantly since then, and he has found himself going from positive territory to 12 points underwater on the issue of immigration, with some pollsters recording a net 29 negative swing.
American voters now see Trump’s handling of immigration more negatively than positively, despite the fact that in many senses he has delivered on his election promises of ‘mass deportations’ and tighter control on the Southern Border. Border crossings are at historic lows, with the U.S. Border Patrol recorded roughly 86,000 attempted illegal crossings at the Southern border from February 2025-2026, compared to 956,000 the previous year.
ICE under Trump has deported far fewer than the 3 million people deported under Barack Obama, and there is no doubt that ordinary Americans wanted to see firm and decisive action when it came to tackling immigration and the Southern border, with 66 per cent supporting deportations of illegal immigrants at the beginning of 2025. However, a majority (53 per cent) now think that the Trump administration is doing ‘too much’ on deportations, compared to 10 per cent who say too little and 36 per cent who say the right amount. Democrats overwhelmingly feel that there has been too much (86 per cent) but in a more worrying sign for the administration 20 per cent of Republicans feel the same way, with Hispanic Republicans (a crucial part of Trump’s 2024 coalition) much more likely to agree (47 per cent).
Whilst this unease in public opinion may not be unsurprising after the fatal shooting of two US citizens during conflicts between protesters and law enforcement officers, it does seem to be having significant political impact. Trump himself has even begun an uncharacteristic climb-down, agreeing to wind down the ICE operations in Minnesota and pledged an end to unwanted ICE surges.
Despite all this, it would be a mistake for Democrats to interpret these changes in public opinion as signs of an appetite for a dramatically more progressive immigration system. Republicans are still more trusted on the issue overall, and just 17 per cent of voters oppose deportations full stop. Many Americans have responded badly to an appearance and tone from the administration more than they have …
This affects the entire country.
Scarlett Maguire is a pollster, and founder of Merlin Strategy.
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election promising improvements to ordinary American’s cost of living and tough action on the border.
Even with public opinion split aggressively on partisan lines, there was still relative optimism about what he could achieve on those two key issues for the American public, and he began his second term in the White House with positive approval ratings on both issues.
However, American voters’ attitudes towards the controversial president have cooled significantly since then, and he has found himself going from positive territory to 12 points underwater on the issue of immigration, with some pollsters recording a net 29 negative swing.
American voters now see Trump’s handling of immigration more negatively than positively, despite the fact that in many senses he has delivered on his election promises of ‘mass deportations’ and tighter control on the Southern Border. Border crossings are at historic lows, with the U.S. Border Patrol recorded roughly 86,000 attempted illegal crossings at the Southern border from February 2025-2026, compared to 956,000 the previous year.
ICE under Trump has deported far fewer than the 3 million people deported under Barack Obama, and there is no doubt that ordinary Americans wanted to see firm and decisive action when it came to tackling immigration and the Southern border, with 66 per cent supporting deportations of illegal immigrants at the beginning of 2025. However, a majority (53 per cent) now think that the Trump administration is doing ‘too much’ on deportations, compared to 10 per cent who say too little and 36 per cent who say the right amount. Democrats overwhelmingly feel that there has been too much (86 per cent) but in a more worrying sign for the administration 20 per cent of Republicans feel the same way, with Hispanic Republicans (a crucial part of Trump’s 2024 coalition) much more likely to agree (47 per cent).
Whilst this unease in public opinion may not be unsurprising after the fatal shooting of two US citizens during conflicts between protesters and law enforcement officers, it does seem to be having significant political impact. Trump himself has even begun an uncharacteristic climb-down, agreeing to wind down the ICE operations in Minnesota and pledged an end to unwanted ICE surges.
Despite all this, it would be a mistake for Democrats to interpret these changes in public opinion as signs of an appetite for a dramatically more progressive immigration system. Republicans are still more trusted on the issue overall, and just 17 per cent of voters oppose deportations full stop. Many Americans have responded badly to an appearance and tone from the administration more than they have …
Scarlett Maguire: Trump is now underwater on immigration. What can UK politicians learn from this?
This affects the entire country.
Scarlett Maguire is a pollster, and founder of Merlin Strategy.
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election promising improvements to ordinary American’s cost of living and tough action on the border.
Even with public opinion split aggressively on partisan lines, there was still relative optimism about what he could achieve on those two key issues for the American public, and he began his second term in the White House with positive approval ratings on both issues.
However, American voters’ attitudes towards the controversial president have cooled significantly since then, and he has found himself going from positive territory to 12 points underwater on the issue of immigration, with some pollsters recording a net 29 negative swing.
American voters now see Trump’s handling of immigration more negatively than positively, despite the fact that in many senses he has delivered on his election promises of ‘mass deportations’ and tighter control on the Southern Border. Border crossings are at historic lows, with the U.S. Border Patrol recorded roughly 86,000 attempted illegal crossings at the Southern border from February 2025-2026, compared to 956,000 the previous year.
ICE under Trump has deported far fewer than the 3 million people deported under Barack Obama, and there is no doubt that ordinary Americans wanted to see firm and decisive action when it came to tackling immigration and the Southern border, with 66 per cent supporting deportations of illegal immigrants at the beginning of 2025. However, a majority (53 per cent) now think that the Trump administration is doing ‘too much’ on deportations, compared to 10 per cent who say too little and 36 per cent who say the right amount. Democrats overwhelmingly feel that there has been too much (86 per cent) but in a more worrying sign for the administration 20 per cent of Republicans feel the same way, with Hispanic Republicans (a crucial part of Trump’s 2024 coalition) much more likely to agree (47 per cent).
Whilst this unease in public opinion may not be unsurprising after the fatal shooting of two US citizens during conflicts between protesters and law enforcement officers, it does seem to be having significant political impact. Trump himself has even begun an uncharacteristic climb-down, agreeing to wind down the ICE operations in Minnesota and pledged an end to unwanted ICE surges.
Despite all this, it would be a mistake for Democrats to interpret these changes in public opinion as signs of an appetite for a dramatically more progressive immigration system. Republicans are still more trusted on the issue overall, and just 17 per cent of voters oppose deportations full stop. Many Americans have responded badly to an appearance and tone from the administration more than they have …
