Rochelle Blakeman: The populist right likes lecturing about fertility and childlessness. Conservatives should avoid it
Every delay has consequences.
Rochelle Blakeman is a public affairs professional, a writer and Conservative supporter.
In 2023, the global fertility rate (GFR) fell to 2.2 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.3. In England and Wales that same year, the TRF was at the lowest value on record – 1.44 children per woman.
In contrast to 20th century scaremongering about there being “too many people” on the planet, demographers are now concerned about a population implosion. Whilst politicians of all colours are grappling with this, the populist-right has been particularly broody.
Notably, The Independent recently unearthed a 2023 Substack article by Reform’s Matt Goodwin in which he explored ideas influenced by demographer Paul Morland on how to solve Britain’s falling birth rates. These included a “negative child benefit tax” on “those without offspring”, removing personal income tax for women with two or more children and establishing a “pro-family culture” by having a national day to celebrate families and parenthood. The paper later spotlighted a YouTube video in which Matt Goodwin said that “many women in Britain are having children far too late in life” and called on young women to be given a “biological reality check.”
Social conservatives may agree with Matt Goodwin’s sentiment, but I believe that the Conservative Party must resist the temptation to emulate a top-down, state-knows-best approach to fertility in the UK. This impulse would not only be ineffective at increasing historically low birthrates, but at odds with everything the Conservative party should stand for. Whilst the ideas in Goodwin’s Substack piece are not official Reform policy, the ideas should be challenged for the sake of argument to reiterate the importance of limiting state involvement in anyone’s personal business.
Kemi Badenoch has been effective in highlighting the Labour Government’s overreach and overspend, and so too should Conservatives be wary of the overreach and economic fantasy flirted with by Goodwin.
The prospect of a tax on the childless and scrapping income tax for those with two or more children would be inherently unfair, as the childless already contribute more to the public purse than they take out. In addition to not claiming child benefits, childless households have fewer members to use public services such as the NHS and state education. The working childless do, however, pay taxes, thereby supporting the public services that those with children likely utilise to a greater extent.
Far from creating a “pro-family culture” in Britain, Goodwin’s proposals would breed justified resentment among those with the misfortune to have such a tax imposed on them. Hard working people would be less able to enjoy their childfree years, with less disposable income to spend on …
Every delay has consequences.
Rochelle Blakeman is a public affairs professional, a writer and Conservative supporter.
In 2023, the global fertility rate (GFR) fell to 2.2 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.3. In England and Wales that same year, the TRF was at the lowest value on record – 1.44 children per woman.
In contrast to 20th century scaremongering about there being “too many people” on the planet, demographers are now concerned about a population implosion. Whilst politicians of all colours are grappling with this, the populist-right has been particularly broody.
Notably, The Independent recently unearthed a 2023 Substack article by Reform’s Matt Goodwin in which he explored ideas influenced by demographer Paul Morland on how to solve Britain’s falling birth rates. These included a “negative child benefit tax” on “those without offspring”, removing personal income tax for women with two or more children and establishing a “pro-family culture” by having a national day to celebrate families and parenthood. The paper later spotlighted a YouTube video in which Matt Goodwin said that “many women in Britain are having children far too late in life” and called on young women to be given a “biological reality check.”
Social conservatives may agree with Matt Goodwin’s sentiment, but I believe that the Conservative Party must resist the temptation to emulate a top-down, state-knows-best approach to fertility in the UK. This impulse would not only be ineffective at increasing historically low birthrates, but at odds with everything the Conservative party should stand for. Whilst the ideas in Goodwin’s Substack piece are not official Reform policy, the ideas should be challenged for the sake of argument to reiterate the importance of limiting state involvement in anyone’s personal business.
Kemi Badenoch has been effective in highlighting the Labour Government’s overreach and overspend, and so too should Conservatives be wary of the overreach and economic fantasy flirted with by Goodwin.
The prospect of a tax on the childless and scrapping income tax for those with two or more children would be inherently unfair, as the childless already contribute more to the public purse than they take out. In addition to not claiming child benefits, childless households have fewer members to use public services such as the NHS and state education. The working childless do, however, pay taxes, thereby supporting the public services that those with children likely utilise to a greater extent.
Far from creating a “pro-family culture” in Britain, Goodwin’s proposals would breed justified resentment among those with the misfortune to have such a tax imposed on them. Hard working people would be less able to enjoy their childfree years, with less disposable income to spend on …
Rochelle Blakeman: The populist right likes lecturing about fertility and childlessness. Conservatives should avoid it
Every delay has consequences.
Rochelle Blakeman is a public affairs professional, a writer and Conservative supporter.
In 2023, the global fertility rate (GFR) fell to 2.2 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.3. In England and Wales that same year, the TRF was at the lowest value on record – 1.44 children per woman.
In contrast to 20th century scaremongering about there being “too many people” on the planet, demographers are now concerned about a population implosion. Whilst politicians of all colours are grappling with this, the populist-right has been particularly broody.
Notably, The Independent recently unearthed a 2023 Substack article by Reform’s Matt Goodwin in which he explored ideas influenced by demographer Paul Morland on how to solve Britain’s falling birth rates. These included a “negative child benefit tax” on “those without offspring”, removing personal income tax for women with two or more children and establishing a “pro-family culture” by having a national day to celebrate families and parenthood. The paper later spotlighted a YouTube video in which Matt Goodwin said that “many women in Britain are having children far too late in life” and called on young women to be given a “biological reality check.”
Social conservatives may agree with Matt Goodwin’s sentiment, but I believe that the Conservative Party must resist the temptation to emulate a top-down, state-knows-best approach to fertility in the UK. This impulse would not only be ineffective at increasing historically low birthrates, but at odds with everything the Conservative party should stand for. Whilst the ideas in Goodwin’s Substack piece are not official Reform policy, the ideas should be challenged for the sake of argument to reiterate the importance of limiting state involvement in anyone’s personal business.
Kemi Badenoch has been effective in highlighting the Labour Government’s overreach and overspend, and so too should Conservatives be wary of the overreach and economic fantasy flirted with by Goodwin.
The prospect of a tax on the childless and scrapping income tax for those with two or more children would be inherently unfair, as the childless already contribute more to the public purse than they take out. In addition to not claiming child benefits, childless households have fewer members to use public services such as the NHS and state education. The working childless do, however, pay taxes, thereby supporting the public services that those with children likely utilise to a greater extent.
Far from creating a “pro-family culture” in Britain, Goodwin’s proposals would breed justified resentment among those with the misfortune to have such a tax imposed on them. Hard working people would be less able to enjoy their childfree years, with less disposable income to spend on …
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