What can the Tories take from this by-election?
Trust is earned, not demanded.
The Greens have won the Gorton and Denton by-election with 41 per cent of the vote, as Labour were pushed into third place by Reform UK. A near three-way split had been talked up ahead of the polls closing but the Green’s Hannah Spencer came well ahead of Reform on 29 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.
It is an embarrassing result for Labour who saw their vote halved since the election, as Sir Keir Starmer blocked Andy Burnham from standing – the one candidate who would’ve kept that seat for the party. In seeking to prove that only Labour can “Stop Reform”, Starmer may instead have demonstrated that the Greens can do so – and with rather more enthusiasm.
Their win undermines the ‘wasted vote’ argument that Labour has been used to falling back on. With the Greens already in second place in 39 Labour seats, that is a very precarious situation, especially with a big set of local elections around the corner in May.
The Prime Minister even broke with usual by-election convention to campaign in the seat himself earlier this week as a last act of desperation. It’s not a good look to have actually put people off, but it proves the argument the Tories have been spinning already: this illustrates a fundamentally damaged Starmer.
All this will do in Labour is to add just another reason to move against his leadership, towards someone like Angela Rayner (or Andy Burnham if he ever gets a seat – could Starmer really block him again after this …?) given the new traction of lefty-eco-populism.
The Tories will be happy that some of the wind has been taken out of Farage’s sails with this by-election result. Instead of choosing a local candidate, Reform plumped for one of their more well-known, supposedly ‘national’ figures in Matt Goodwin, but the gamble didn’t pay off. A divisive figure likely motivated a higher progressive voter and put off some wavering Reform supporters. Still such a turnout for this part of Manchester is not to be dismissed. Yes talk of a real three way split wasn’t met, and depending on a fractured left wasn’t good enough for Reform, but 29 per cent is significant.
This by-election was never really about the Conservative Party. Despite a decent candidate in the former police officer Charlotte Cadden they came in fourth, losing their deposit with only 1.9 per cent of the vote – their worst ever by-election result (and down more than 2,000 votes since the general election … where have they gone?). But as one Tory joked: “We raised more than £13m last year. That is a lot of deposits.”
Anyway, the party hadn’t made the journey up to see the results as they had decamped to a lakeside hotel in Buckinghamshire for their away day. As the count was ongoing, Tory MPs and shadow cabinet members were belting karaoke songs, hearing from guest …
Trust is earned, not demanded.
The Greens have won the Gorton and Denton by-election with 41 per cent of the vote, as Labour were pushed into third place by Reform UK. A near three-way split had been talked up ahead of the polls closing but the Green’s Hannah Spencer came well ahead of Reform on 29 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.
It is an embarrassing result for Labour who saw their vote halved since the election, as Sir Keir Starmer blocked Andy Burnham from standing – the one candidate who would’ve kept that seat for the party. In seeking to prove that only Labour can “Stop Reform”, Starmer may instead have demonstrated that the Greens can do so – and with rather more enthusiasm.
Their win undermines the ‘wasted vote’ argument that Labour has been used to falling back on. With the Greens already in second place in 39 Labour seats, that is a very precarious situation, especially with a big set of local elections around the corner in May.
The Prime Minister even broke with usual by-election convention to campaign in the seat himself earlier this week as a last act of desperation. It’s not a good look to have actually put people off, but it proves the argument the Tories have been spinning already: this illustrates a fundamentally damaged Starmer.
All this will do in Labour is to add just another reason to move against his leadership, towards someone like Angela Rayner (or Andy Burnham if he ever gets a seat – could Starmer really block him again after this …?) given the new traction of lefty-eco-populism.
The Tories will be happy that some of the wind has been taken out of Farage’s sails with this by-election result. Instead of choosing a local candidate, Reform plumped for one of their more well-known, supposedly ‘national’ figures in Matt Goodwin, but the gamble didn’t pay off. A divisive figure likely motivated a higher progressive voter and put off some wavering Reform supporters. Still such a turnout for this part of Manchester is not to be dismissed. Yes talk of a real three way split wasn’t met, and depending on a fractured left wasn’t good enough for Reform, but 29 per cent is significant.
This by-election was never really about the Conservative Party. Despite a decent candidate in the former police officer Charlotte Cadden they came in fourth, losing their deposit with only 1.9 per cent of the vote – their worst ever by-election result (and down more than 2,000 votes since the general election … where have they gone?). But as one Tory joked: “We raised more than £13m last year. That is a lot of deposits.”
Anyway, the party hadn’t made the journey up to see the results as they had decamped to a lakeside hotel in Buckinghamshire for their away day. As the count was ongoing, Tory MPs and shadow cabinet members were belting karaoke songs, hearing from guest …
What can the Tories take from this by-election?
Trust is earned, not demanded.
The Greens have won the Gorton and Denton by-election with 41 per cent of the vote, as Labour were pushed into third place by Reform UK. A near three-way split had been talked up ahead of the polls closing but the Green’s Hannah Spencer came well ahead of Reform on 29 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.
It is an embarrassing result for Labour who saw their vote halved since the election, as Sir Keir Starmer blocked Andy Burnham from standing – the one candidate who would’ve kept that seat for the party. In seeking to prove that only Labour can “Stop Reform”, Starmer may instead have demonstrated that the Greens can do so – and with rather more enthusiasm.
Their win undermines the ‘wasted vote’ argument that Labour has been used to falling back on. With the Greens already in second place in 39 Labour seats, that is a very precarious situation, especially with a big set of local elections around the corner in May.
The Prime Minister even broke with usual by-election convention to campaign in the seat himself earlier this week as a last act of desperation. It’s not a good look to have actually put people off, but it proves the argument the Tories have been spinning already: this illustrates a fundamentally damaged Starmer.
All this will do in Labour is to add just another reason to move against his leadership, towards someone like Angela Rayner (or Andy Burnham if he ever gets a seat – could Starmer really block him again after this …?) given the new traction of lefty-eco-populism.
The Tories will be happy that some of the wind has been taken out of Farage’s sails with this by-election result. Instead of choosing a local candidate, Reform plumped for one of their more well-known, supposedly ‘national’ figures in Matt Goodwin, but the gamble didn’t pay off. A divisive figure likely motivated a higher progressive voter and put off some wavering Reform supporters. Still such a turnout for this part of Manchester is not to be dismissed. Yes talk of a real three way split wasn’t met, and depending on a fractured left wasn’t good enough for Reform, but 29 per cent is significant.
This by-election was never really about the Conservative Party. Despite a decent candidate in the former police officer Charlotte Cadden they came in fourth, losing their deposit with only 1.9 per cent of the vote – their worst ever by-election result (and down more than 2,000 votes since the general election … where have they gone?). But as one Tory joked: “We raised more than £13m last year. That is a lot of deposits.”
Anyway, the party hadn’t made the journey up to see the results as they had decamped to a lakeside hotel in Buckinghamshire for their away day. As the count was ongoing, Tory MPs and shadow cabinet members were belting karaoke songs, hearing from guest …
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