David Gauke: Welcome to the new world of multi party politics – whose entrance was via Gorton
Why resist verification?
David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the 2019 general election.
Most by-elections do not really matter but Gorton and Denton feels like a by-election of significance – even if the news quickly moved on.
Yes, there are some familiar attributes to the result – Governments do badly; a small party often does well; and, in seats with a large Muslim vote, the most vehemently anti-Israel candidate often wins. At least we were spared George Galloway returning to Parliament.
We know that the Labour government – and Keir Starmer – are unpopular, and that was reflected in their dismal vote. We know that Muslim communities often vote as a block, a tendency that was once very helpful to Labour and now is not.
We also know that tactical voting means that if you are party that does not have a chance of winning, your vote will be squeezed very tightly. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats reached 2 per cent, which is tighter than ever but – where there are three plausible options for a victorious candidate rather than the usual two – not altogether surprising.
Not much will be said about the Liberal Democrats in the context of Gorton and Denton because their low showing was expected, but it is a reminder of the changed political geography compared to a generation ago.
There are some similarities with the Brent East by-election of 2003. Here was an urban, multicultural seat where the Liberal Democrats had little historic presence (I was the Conservative candidate in 2001 and there was next to no Lib Dem activity in the seat in that election) but stormed to victory two years’ later at a time when the Tories were at a very low ebb, and the Government was unpopular with Muslims and younger progressives because of the Iraq war. At that point, the Liberal Democrats were emerging as a real threat to Labour in urban seats and went on to win Manchester Withington (part of which is now in Gorton and Denton) in 2005. The Greens are now the party of protest for urban progressive graduates and Muslims.
This sets the Greens up for a very good set of results in the London local authority elections in May and a realistic challenger in a swathe of urban Labour Parliamentary seats at the next General Election. However awkward this might be for Labour, this is not something Conservatives should celebrate. The Greens’ influence on our politics – whether directly as a Parliamentary force or indirectly by dragging Labour in its direction – will be detrimental to our economic wellbeing, national security, and, on the evidence of their by-election campaign, community cohesion. If there is any consolation in their victory, it will come in the form of greater scrutiny of a party whose policy …
Why resist verification?
David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the 2019 general election.
Most by-elections do not really matter but Gorton and Denton feels like a by-election of significance – even if the news quickly moved on.
Yes, there are some familiar attributes to the result – Governments do badly; a small party often does well; and, in seats with a large Muslim vote, the most vehemently anti-Israel candidate often wins. At least we were spared George Galloway returning to Parliament.
We know that the Labour government – and Keir Starmer – are unpopular, and that was reflected in their dismal vote. We know that Muslim communities often vote as a block, a tendency that was once very helpful to Labour and now is not.
We also know that tactical voting means that if you are party that does not have a chance of winning, your vote will be squeezed very tightly. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats reached 2 per cent, which is tighter than ever but – where there are three plausible options for a victorious candidate rather than the usual two – not altogether surprising.
Not much will be said about the Liberal Democrats in the context of Gorton and Denton because their low showing was expected, but it is a reminder of the changed political geography compared to a generation ago.
There are some similarities with the Brent East by-election of 2003. Here was an urban, multicultural seat where the Liberal Democrats had little historic presence (I was the Conservative candidate in 2001 and there was next to no Lib Dem activity in the seat in that election) but stormed to victory two years’ later at a time when the Tories were at a very low ebb, and the Government was unpopular with Muslims and younger progressives because of the Iraq war. At that point, the Liberal Democrats were emerging as a real threat to Labour in urban seats and went on to win Manchester Withington (part of which is now in Gorton and Denton) in 2005. The Greens are now the party of protest for urban progressive graduates and Muslims.
This sets the Greens up for a very good set of results in the London local authority elections in May and a realistic challenger in a swathe of urban Labour Parliamentary seats at the next General Election. However awkward this might be for Labour, this is not something Conservatives should celebrate. The Greens’ influence on our politics – whether directly as a Parliamentary force or indirectly by dragging Labour in its direction – will be detrimental to our economic wellbeing, national security, and, on the evidence of their by-election campaign, community cohesion. If there is any consolation in their victory, it will come in the form of greater scrutiny of a party whose policy …
David Gauke: Welcome to the new world of multi party politics – whose entrance was via Gorton
Why resist verification?
David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the 2019 general election.
Most by-elections do not really matter but Gorton and Denton feels like a by-election of significance – even if the news quickly moved on.
Yes, there are some familiar attributes to the result – Governments do badly; a small party often does well; and, in seats with a large Muslim vote, the most vehemently anti-Israel candidate often wins. At least we were spared George Galloway returning to Parliament.
We know that the Labour government – and Keir Starmer – are unpopular, and that was reflected in their dismal vote. We know that Muslim communities often vote as a block, a tendency that was once very helpful to Labour and now is not.
We also know that tactical voting means that if you are party that does not have a chance of winning, your vote will be squeezed very tightly. Neither the Conservatives nor the Liberal Democrats reached 2 per cent, which is tighter than ever but – where there are three plausible options for a victorious candidate rather than the usual two – not altogether surprising.
Not much will be said about the Liberal Democrats in the context of Gorton and Denton because their low showing was expected, but it is a reminder of the changed political geography compared to a generation ago.
There are some similarities with the Brent East by-election of 2003. Here was an urban, multicultural seat where the Liberal Democrats had little historic presence (I was the Conservative candidate in 2001 and there was next to no Lib Dem activity in the seat in that election) but stormed to victory two years’ later at a time when the Tories were at a very low ebb, and the Government was unpopular with Muslims and younger progressives because of the Iraq war. At that point, the Liberal Democrats were emerging as a real threat to Labour in urban seats and went on to win Manchester Withington (part of which is now in Gorton and Denton) in 2005. The Greens are now the party of protest for urban progressive graduates and Muslims.
This sets the Greens up for a very good set of results in the London local authority elections in May and a realistic challenger in a swathe of urban Labour Parliamentary seats at the next General Election. However awkward this might be for Labour, this is not something Conservatives should celebrate. The Greens’ influence on our politics – whether directly as a Parliamentary force or indirectly by dragging Labour in its direction – will be detrimental to our economic wellbeing, national security, and, on the evidence of their by-election campaign, community cohesion. If there is any consolation in their victory, it will come in the form of greater scrutiny of a party whose policy …
