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Cornyn is still in the fight. Will Trump finally endorse him?
Is this competence or optics?

Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations in the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. National Republicans believe his unexpectedly strong showing may be enough for President Donald Trump to endorse the embattled incumbent.

Trump has privately intimated that he will soon get involved in the Texas Senate race after rebuffing endorsement pleas from both candidates for months, according to a GOP strategist close to the White House who was granted anonymity to speak freely. For months, party leaders worried that Trump would back state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of the president, especially if he dominated in Tuesday’s primary.

Then came the results that had Cornyn neck-and-neck with Paxton. With that outcome, the strategist said, it would be “very surprising” if Trump backed Paxton.

The stakes are high for Republicans, who fear control of the Senate is hanging in the balance. The GOP hoped to avoid state Rep. James Talarico clinching the Democratic nomination because they see him as able to draw away moderate Republican voters.

Republicans “should take him seriously,” said another close Trump administration ally, granted anonymity to be candid. Talarico is a “big reason for Trump to get in for Cornyn and end this thing,” the ally said, especially to free up massive amounts of money that could be spent instead on competitive Senate races in Michigan and Georgia.

National Republicans estimated they would have to spend $200 million to protect Cornyn in the runoff. But the GOP strategist shrugged off the price tag. “Look, it will probably cost some money,” the person said. “It's just money, we have a lot of it.”

Tuesday’s results were the best-case scenario for establishment Republicans, who worried Cornyn would finish far enough behind Paxton that it would be a slog for him — and a tough sell for a president who hates to back losers.

The Texas GOP Senate primary has become a referendum on the future of the Republican Party, testing the strength of the conservative grassroots against the establishment wing. While the MAGA base kept the four-term incumbent — who nearly became Senate majority leader — from getting a majority of the primary vote, the results show the old Republican establishment isn’t quite dead yet.

Cornyn’s narrow lead over Paxton was powered by even performances across the state.

Even in the most heavily Republican counties where Paxton might have expected to benefit from a MAGA base, the incumbent senator largely held his own: Across more than 110 mostly rural counties that Trump won by at least 50 points in 2024 and were reporting complete results as of early Wednesday morning, Paxton built up only the narrowest of leads, 44 percent to just shy of 40 percent for Cornyn.

Meanwhile, Cornyn strengthened his advantage in the …
Cornyn is still in the fight. Will Trump finally endorse him? Is this competence or optics? Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations in the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. National Republicans believe his unexpectedly strong showing may be enough for President Donald Trump to endorse the embattled incumbent. Trump has privately intimated that he will soon get involved in the Texas Senate race after rebuffing endorsement pleas from both candidates for months, according to a GOP strategist close to the White House who was granted anonymity to speak freely. For months, party leaders worried that Trump would back state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of the president, especially if he dominated in Tuesday’s primary. Then came the results that had Cornyn neck-and-neck with Paxton. With that outcome, the strategist said, it would be “very surprising” if Trump backed Paxton. The stakes are high for Republicans, who fear control of the Senate is hanging in the balance. The GOP hoped to avoid state Rep. James Talarico clinching the Democratic nomination because they see him as able to draw away moderate Republican voters. Republicans “should take him seriously,” said another close Trump administration ally, granted anonymity to be candid. Talarico is a “big reason for Trump to get in for Cornyn and end this thing,” the ally said, especially to free up massive amounts of money that could be spent instead on competitive Senate races in Michigan and Georgia. National Republicans estimated they would have to spend $200 million to protect Cornyn in the runoff. But the GOP strategist shrugged off the price tag. “Look, it will probably cost some money,” the person said. “It's just money, we have a lot of it.” Tuesday’s results were the best-case scenario for establishment Republicans, who worried Cornyn would finish far enough behind Paxton that it would be a slog for him — and a tough sell for a president who hates to back losers. The Texas GOP Senate primary has become a referendum on the future of the Republican Party, testing the strength of the conservative grassroots against the establishment wing. While the MAGA base kept the four-term incumbent — who nearly became Senate majority leader — from getting a majority of the primary vote, the results show the old Republican establishment isn’t quite dead yet. Cornyn’s narrow lead over Paxton was powered by even performances across the state. Even in the most heavily Republican counties where Paxton might have expected to benefit from a MAGA base, the incumbent senator largely held his own: Across more than 110 mostly rural counties that Trump won by at least 50 points in 2024 and were reporting complete results as of early Wednesday morning, Paxton built up only the narrowest of leads, 44 percent to just shy of 40 percent for Cornyn. Meanwhile, Cornyn strengthened his advantage in the …
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