Crenshaw loss and other early primaries show warning signs for incumbents in 2026
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Tuesday’s primaries across three states revealed unexpected warning signs for incumbents heading into the 2026 cycle, with several sitting lawmakers struggling or falling outright even as reelection rates historically remain among the highest in American politics.
The most dramatic upset came in Texas, where Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) lost his primary by double digits to state Rep. Steve Toth. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also failed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, forcing the longtime incumbent into another round of voting.
Democrats also faced turbulence. Longtime Texas Rep. Al Green (D-TX) was pushed into a runoff with freshman Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) in a Houston-area district after Texas redrew its congressional map. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) faced an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in a deeply Democratic district.
Taken together, the results offer an early snapshot of the political environment heading into the midterm cycle, where incumbents in both parties are navigating ideological pressure from primary voters and broader frustration with Washington.
“Across the board, voters are pissed,” said Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University. “They differ in who they’re mad at and why, but it’s just getting increasingly hard to be an incumbent.”
Incumbents still enjoy one of the strongest advantages in American politics. Sitting members of Congress routinely win reelection at rates above 90%, according to Ballotpedia.
But the first major primaries of the 2026 cycle suggest the political terrain may be shifting.
Texas provided the clearest example. The state redrew its congressional districts last year, reshaping several races and forcing multiple incumbents into new political terrain.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL known for his independent streak, had long drawn criticism from the party’s hard-right flank. Toth capitalized on attacks accusing the congressman of insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump. Crenshaw was the only House Republican in Texas who did not secure Trump’s endorsement, while Toth received late backing from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said the results reinforced another reality shaping GOP primaries: The continued power of Trump’s backing.
“The story on the Republican side isn’t the waning power of incumbency,” Seitchik said, speaking …
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Tuesday’s primaries across three states revealed unexpected warning signs for incumbents heading into the 2026 cycle, with several sitting lawmakers struggling or falling outright even as reelection rates historically remain among the highest in American politics.
The most dramatic upset came in Texas, where Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) lost his primary by double digits to state Rep. Steve Toth. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also failed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, forcing the longtime incumbent into another round of voting.
Democrats also faced turbulence. Longtime Texas Rep. Al Green (D-TX) was pushed into a runoff with freshman Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) in a Houston-area district after Texas redrew its congressional map. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) faced an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in a deeply Democratic district.
Taken together, the results offer an early snapshot of the political environment heading into the midterm cycle, where incumbents in both parties are navigating ideological pressure from primary voters and broader frustration with Washington.
“Across the board, voters are pissed,” said Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University. “They differ in who they’re mad at and why, but it’s just getting increasingly hard to be an incumbent.”
Incumbents still enjoy one of the strongest advantages in American politics. Sitting members of Congress routinely win reelection at rates above 90%, according to Ballotpedia.
But the first major primaries of the 2026 cycle suggest the political terrain may be shifting.
Texas provided the clearest example. The state redrew its congressional districts last year, reshaping several races and forcing multiple incumbents into new political terrain.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL known for his independent streak, had long drawn criticism from the party’s hard-right flank. Toth capitalized on attacks accusing the congressman of insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump. Crenshaw was the only House Republican in Texas who did not secure Trump’s endorsement, while Toth received late backing from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said the results reinforced another reality shaping GOP primaries: The continued power of Trump’s backing.
“The story on the Republican side isn’t the waning power of incumbency,” Seitchik said, speaking …
Crenshaw loss and other early primaries show warning signs for incumbents in 2026
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.
Tuesday’s primaries across three states revealed unexpected warning signs for incumbents heading into the 2026 cycle, with several sitting lawmakers struggling or falling outright even as reelection rates historically remain among the highest in American politics.
The most dramatic upset came in Texas, where Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) lost his primary by double digits to state Rep. Steve Toth. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also failed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, forcing the longtime incumbent into another round of voting.
Democrats also faced turbulence. Longtime Texas Rep. Al Green (D-TX) was pushed into a runoff with freshman Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) in a Houston-area district after Texas redrew its congressional map. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) faced an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in a deeply Democratic district.
Taken together, the results offer an early snapshot of the political environment heading into the midterm cycle, where incumbents in both parties are navigating ideological pressure from primary voters and broader frustration with Washington.
“Across the board, voters are pissed,” said Casey Burgat, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University. “They differ in who they’re mad at and why, but it’s just getting increasingly hard to be an incumbent.”
Incumbents still enjoy one of the strongest advantages in American politics. Sitting members of Congress routinely win reelection at rates above 90%, according to Ballotpedia.
But the first major primaries of the 2026 cycle suggest the political terrain may be shifting.
Texas provided the clearest example. The state redrew its congressional districts last year, reshaping several races and forcing multiple incumbents into new political terrain.
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL known for his independent streak, had long drawn criticism from the party’s hard-right flank. Toth capitalized on attacks accusing the congressman of insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump. Crenshaw was the only House Republican in Texas who did not secure Trump’s endorsement, while Toth received late backing from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said the results reinforced another reality shaping GOP primaries: The continued power of Trump’s backing.
“The story on the Republican side isn’t the waning power of incumbency,” Seitchik said, speaking …
