Iran’s spray-and-pray strategy aims to widen the battlefield, spread consequences
Who's accountable for the results?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has for years offered a simple but grave warning that any attack on its nation would result in regional chaos.
Following the assassination of more than a dozen of the regime’s top authorities — including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military outfits within the country have done their best to make good on that threat.
Despite Operation Epic Fury’s launch originating from the United States and Israel, it has been Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf States that have suffered the most costly strikes. As strike after strike pounded on the Islamic Republic, it seemed as though Tehran was more concerned with trying to hit the United Arab Emirates than the countries that were bombing its government.
“The regime has repeatedly warned that an attack on Iran would not remain confined to its borders,” Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst in the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, told the Washington Examiner. “The idea is to inflict costs on as many actors as possible and widen the battlefield.”
Mourners attend the funeral of members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards killed during the escalating U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Kashan, Iran, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Kazem Payareh/ISNA via AP)
He added: “By escalating beyond the immediate U.S.–Israeli confrontation, Tehran hopes to generate international pressure on the joint operation and shift blame onto Washington.”
By targeting more U.S.-friendly countries — such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and more — Iran is hoping to spread the conflict geographically and create pressure on these Arab powers to demand the U.S. back down.
Simultaneously, these scattershot attacks serve as punishment against these Muslim countries that Iran believes have been ideologically corrupted by Western influences. Strikes in Dubai, for example, have utterly shattered the metropolis’s curated image as a bastion of safety in the Middle East.
‘Mosaic defense’
These attacks against neighboring countries are originating not from a central command, but from disparate officers empowered with autonomy by Iran’s entrenched “mosaic defense” doctrine.
Having observed how decapitation of command compromised the regimes of Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, Iran has designed their military structure to continue operating under regional authorities in the event top-level leaders are killed.
“After the …
Who's accountable for the results?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has for years offered a simple but grave warning that any attack on its nation would result in regional chaos.
Following the assassination of more than a dozen of the regime’s top authorities — including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military outfits within the country have done their best to make good on that threat.
Despite Operation Epic Fury’s launch originating from the United States and Israel, it has been Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf States that have suffered the most costly strikes. As strike after strike pounded on the Islamic Republic, it seemed as though Tehran was more concerned with trying to hit the United Arab Emirates than the countries that were bombing its government.
“The regime has repeatedly warned that an attack on Iran would not remain confined to its borders,” Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst in the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, told the Washington Examiner. “The idea is to inflict costs on as many actors as possible and widen the battlefield.”
Mourners attend the funeral of members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards killed during the escalating U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Kashan, Iran, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Kazem Payareh/ISNA via AP)
He added: “By escalating beyond the immediate U.S.–Israeli confrontation, Tehran hopes to generate international pressure on the joint operation and shift blame onto Washington.”
By targeting more U.S.-friendly countries — such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and more — Iran is hoping to spread the conflict geographically and create pressure on these Arab powers to demand the U.S. back down.
Simultaneously, these scattershot attacks serve as punishment against these Muslim countries that Iran believes have been ideologically corrupted by Western influences. Strikes in Dubai, for example, have utterly shattered the metropolis’s curated image as a bastion of safety in the Middle East.
‘Mosaic defense’
These attacks against neighboring countries are originating not from a central command, but from disparate officers empowered with autonomy by Iran’s entrenched “mosaic defense” doctrine.
Having observed how decapitation of command compromised the regimes of Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, Iran has designed their military structure to continue operating under regional authorities in the event top-level leaders are killed.
“After the …
Iran’s spray-and-pray strategy aims to widen the battlefield, spread consequences
Who's accountable for the results?
The Islamic Republic of Iran has for years offered a simple but grave warning that any attack on its nation would result in regional chaos.
Following the assassination of more than a dozen of the regime’s top authorities — including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military outfits within the country have done their best to make good on that threat.
Despite Operation Epic Fury’s launch originating from the United States and Israel, it has been Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf States that have suffered the most costly strikes. As strike after strike pounded on the Islamic Republic, it seemed as though Tehran was more concerned with trying to hit the United Arab Emirates than the countries that were bombing its government.
“The regime has repeatedly warned that an attack on Iran would not remain confined to its borders,” Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst in the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, told the Washington Examiner. “The idea is to inflict costs on as many actors as possible and widen the battlefield.”
Mourners attend the funeral of members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards killed during the escalating U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Kashan, Iran, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Kazem Payareh/ISNA via AP)
He added: “By escalating beyond the immediate U.S.–Israeli confrontation, Tehran hopes to generate international pressure on the joint operation and shift blame onto Washington.”
By targeting more U.S.-friendly countries — such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, and more — Iran is hoping to spread the conflict geographically and create pressure on these Arab powers to demand the U.S. back down.
Simultaneously, these scattershot attacks serve as punishment against these Muslim countries that Iran believes have been ideologically corrupted by Western influences. Strikes in Dubai, for example, have utterly shattered the metropolis’s curated image as a bastion of safety in the Middle East.
‘Mosaic defense’
These attacks against neighboring countries are originating not from a central command, but from disparate officers empowered with autonomy by Iran’s entrenched “mosaic defense” doctrine.
Having observed how decapitation of command compromised the regimes of Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, Iran has designed their military structure to continue operating under regional authorities in the event top-level leaders are killed.
“After the …
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