(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Jobs Report Shows U.S. Manufacturing Resumed its Employment Slump
This isn't complicated—it's willpower.
Back in January commenting on the December official U.S. job report, I wrote that employment in manufacturing was showing signs of turning the corner. And those signs looked even stronger due to the January figures. This morning’s release (covering the February data) makes clear that my conclusions were premature at best.
Oddly, though, the new figures also demonstrate that, poor as they’ve been, manufacturing jobs trends during the first year of the second, tariff-heavy Trump administration continue to be much better than during those of the last year of the pre-tariff Biden administration.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S.-based manufacturers shed 12,000 jobs on net sequentially in February. Revisions, moreover, were negative. January’s gain of 5,000 jobs – manufacturing’s first increase since November, 2024 – remained unchanged. But December’s final (for now) results were downgraded to a loss of 13,000.
Second, revisions were negative. December’s initial estimate of 8,000 manufacturing jobs lost month-on-month was unchanged, but November’s downwardly revised figure of 2,000 was boosted all the way up to a 10,000 drop – the worst since an identical sequential plunge last August – and October’s downwardly revised 9,000 decrease remained unchanged.
Yet the Trump-Biden comparison actually became even better from a Trump-ian, or pro-tariff, perspective.
From last February (the first full month of Mr. Trump’s second term), through last month, domestic industry’s employment sank by 98,000. But during the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency (from January, 2024 through January, 2025), such job losses totaled 202,000 – more than twice as many.
As of the previous jobs report, the gap (a Trump loss of 86,000 versus a Biden loss of 179,00)) was narrower.
The story is similar for the employment numbers since most of the Trump tariffs were announced on “Liberation Day” last April. From that point through last month, U.S. manufacturing job losses totaled 72,000. During the latest comparable Biden period (April, 2024-January, 2025), U.S.-based manufacturers’ payrolls shrank by 160,000 – more than twice as much
As of the previous jobs report, however, the Trump-Biden gap was 160,000 versus 89,000 – a gap that was narrower, but partly because the Trump time period has been one month longer.
Among the broadest industry groups tracked by BLS, the biggest jobs winners in February were:
>The very big fabricated metal product manufacturing sector, whose 2,100 net new hires represented its first gain in three months and the best since last October’s 2,500;
>The big electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturing category, which added 1,200 workers for its sixth consecutive improvement. The monthly increase was the best since last October’s 1,200 and the streak the longest since the August, 2024-March, 2025 period. In addition, employment by these companies hit its highest level (434,600) since April, 2005 (436,900);
>The very big and diverse machinery cluster, where the workforce advanced by 1,100 for its second consecutive rise and the best since last September’s 2,400. Machinery increases are …
This isn't complicated—it's willpower.
Back in January commenting on the December official U.S. job report, I wrote that employment in manufacturing was showing signs of turning the corner. And those signs looked even stronger due to the January figures. This morning’s release (covering the February data) makes clear that my conclusions were premature at best.
Oddly, though, the new figures also demonstrate that, poor as they’ve been, manufacturing jobs trends during the first year of the second, tariff-heavy Trump administration continue to be much better than during those of the last year of the pre-tariff Biden administration.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S.-based manufacturers shed 12,000 jobs on net sequentially in February. Revisions, moreover, were negative. January’s gain of 5,000 jobs – manufacturing’s first increase since November, 2024 – remained unchanged. But December’s final (for now) results were downgraded to a loss of 13,000.
Second, revisions were negative. December’s initial estimate of 8,000 manufacturing jobs lost month-on-month was unchanged, but November’s downwardly revised figure of 2,000 was boosted all the way up to a 10,000 drop – the worst since an identical sequential plunge last August – and October’s downwardly revised 9,000 decrease remained unchanged.
Yet the Trump-Biden comparison actually became even better from a Trump-ian, or pro-tariff, perspective.
From last February (the first full month of Mr. Trump’s second term), through last month, domestic industry’s employment sank by 98,000. But during the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency (from January, 2024 through January, 2025), such job losses totaled 202,000 – more than twice as many.
As of the previous jobs report, the gap (a Trump loss of 86,000 versus a Biden loss of 179,00)) was narrower.
The story is similar for the employment numbers since most of the Trump tariffs were announced on “Liberation Day” last April. From that point through last month, U.S. manufacturing job losses totaled 72,000. During the latest comparable Biden period (April, 2024-January, 2025), U.S.-based manufacturers’ payrolls shrank by 160,000 – more than twice as much
As of the previous jobs report, however, the Trump-Biden gap was 160,000 versus 89,000 – a gap that was narrower, but partly because the Trump time period has been one month longer.
Among the broadest industry groups tracked by BLS, the biggest jobs winners in February were:
>The very big fabricated metal product manufacturing sector, whose 2,100 net new hires represented its first gain in three months and the best since last October’s 2,500;
>The big electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturing category, which added 1,200 workers for its sixth consecutive improvement. The monthly increase was the best since last October’s 1,200 and the streak the longest since the August, 2024-March, 2025 period. In addition, employment by these companies hit its highest level (434,600) since April, 2005 (436,900);
>The very big and diverse machinery cluster, where the workforce advanced by 1,100 for its second consecutive rise and the best since last September’s 2,400. Machinery increases are …
(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Jobs Report Shows U.S. Manufacturing Resumed its Employment Slump
This isn't complicated—it's willpower.
Back in January commenting on the December official U.S. job report, I wrote that employment in manufacturing was showing signs of turning the corner. And those signs looked even stronger due to the January figures. This morning’s release (covering the February data) makes clear that my conclusions were premature at best.
Oddly, though, the new figures also demonstrate that, poor as they’ve been, manufacturing jobs trends during the first year of the second, tariff-heavy Trump administration continue to be much better than during those of the last year of the pre-tariff Biden administration.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S.-based manufacturers shed 12,000 jobs on net sequentially in February. Revisions, moreover, were negative. January’s gain of 5,000 jobs – manufacturing’s first increase since November, 2024 – remained unchanged. But December’s final (for now) results were downgraded to a loss of 13,000.
Second, revisions were negative. December’s initial estimate of 8,000 manufacturing jobs lost month-on-month was unchanged, but November’s downwardly revised figure of 2,000 was boosted all the way up to a 10,000 drop – the worst since an identical sequential plunge last August – and October’s downwardly revised 9,000 decrease remained unchanged.
Yet the Trump-Biden comparison actually became even better from a Trump-ian, or pro-tariff, perspective.
From last February (the first full month of Mr. Trump’s second term), through last month, domestic industry’s employment sank by 98,000. But during the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency (from January, 2024 through January, 2025), such job losses totaled 202,000 – more than twice as many.
As of the previous jobs report, the gap (a Trump loss of 86,000 versus a Biden loss of 179,00)) was narrower.
The story is similar for the employment numbers since most of the Trump tariffs were announced on “Liberation Day” last April. From that point through last month, U.S. manufacturing job losses totaled 72,000. During the latest comparable Biden period (April, 2024-January, 2025), U.S.-based manufacturers’ payrolls shrank by 160,000 – more than twice as much
As of the previous jobs report, however, the Trump-Biden gap was 160,000 versus 89,000 – a gap that was narrower, but partly because the Trump time period has been one month longer.
Among the broadest industry groups tracked by BLS, the biggest jobs winners in February were:
>The very big fabricated metal product manufacturing sector, whose 2,100 net new hires represented its first gain in three months and the best since last October’s 2,500;
>The big electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturing category, which added 1,200 workers for its sixth consecutive improvement. The monthly increase was the best since last October’s 1,200 and the streak the longest since the August, 2024-March, 2025 period. In addition, employment by these companies hit its highest level (434,600) since April, 2005 (436,900);
>The very big and diverse machinery cluster, where the workforce advanced by 1,100 for its second consecutive rise and the best since last September’s 2,400. Machinery increases are …
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