John Wall: The lessons of history for governments in trouble
What's the endgame here?
John Wall is a retired engineer and former Conservative county councillor in Hampshire.
According to Churchill: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Although Marx’s, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce,” might be more appropriate!
Consider the duration of governments we’ve had.
1945-1951: 6 (5+1) years Labour
1951-1964: 13 (4+4+5) years Conservative
1964-1979: 15 years Labour (2+4) + Conservative (4) + Labour (5)
1979-1997: 18 (4+4+5+5) years Conservative (13+5)
1997-2010: 13 (4+4+5) years Labour
2010-2024: 14 (5+2+2+5) years Conservative (including coalition with the LDs)
With a few exceptions this is essentially a series of three-term governments (2010-24 had two short terms), and these ended for multiple reasons.
“Events, dear boy, events!”
Shocks to the system, sometimes self-inflicted, can change the course of history.
The 1956 Suez Crisis finished Eden and he resigned citing ill-health. Wilson was expected to win in 1970 but, amongst other things, had a legacy from the 1967 devaluation and his poorly judged “pound in your pocket” speech.
The exception is the 1982 Falklands War. Failure would have probably finished Thatcher, but it’s one of her greatest legacies.
In 1992 Major was barely back in Downing Street when Black Wednesday, an inherited ticking time bomb, holed his government below the waterline. The 2008 Financial Crisis happened on Brown’s watch and the Conservatives successfully blamed him.
In early 2020 Johnson had the largest Conservative majority since the 1980s, Labour was undergoing a leadership contest and needed de-Corbynising, and then Covid struck. Without this there wouldn’t have been Partygate. The messy and introverted 2022 Johnson-Truss-Sunak succession bequeathed Sunak a poisoned chalice.
“Something will turn up” but things can only get worse
The final term tends to be five years as PMs become Mr Micawber. Attlee’s 1950 majority of five meant he went in 1951. 1959-64 isn’t a great example as Macmillan was replaced by Douglas-Home in 1963 due to ill health. Callaghan hung on, some suggest he might have won in Autumn 1978, until losing a vote of confidence, and an election, in 1979.
The real exception is Major in 1992 who had a year and a half to steady things, make a start on replacing the Community Charge and get on his soapbox.
After becoming Labour leader Blair increasingly set the agenda and Major forcing a leadership contest in 1995 made no difference. Had he then called an election and Sunak similarly after succeeding Truss they would have almost certainly lost, but probably by smaller margins.
Brown should have probably emulated Eden and called an election on succeeding Blair in 2007. He didn’t know the Financial Crisis was coming but a victory …
What's the endgame here?
John Wall is a retired engineer and former Conservative county councillor in Hampshire.
According to Churchill: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Although Marx’s, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce,” might be more appropriate!
Consider the duration of governments we’ve had.
1945-1951: 6 (5+1) years Labour
1951-1964: 13 (4+4+5) years Conservative
1964-1979: 15 years Labour (2+4) + Conservative (4) + Labour (5)
1979-1997: 18 (4+4+5+5) years Conservative (13+5)
1997-2010: 13 (4+4+5) years Labour
2010-2024: 14 (5+2+2+5) years Conservative (including coalition with the LDs)
With a few exceptions this is essentially a series of three-term governments (2010-24 had two short terms), and these ended for multiple reasons.
“Events, dear boy, events!”
Shocks to the system, sometimes self-inflicted, can change the course of history.
The 1956 Suez Crisis finished Eden and he resigned citing ill-health. Wilson was expected to win in 1970 but, amongst other things, had a legacy from the 1967 devaluation and his poorly judged “pound in your pocket” speech.
The exception is the 1982 Falklands War. Failure would have probably finished Thatcher, but it’s one of her greatest legacies.
In 1992 Major was barely back in Downing Street when Black Wednesday, an inherited ticking time bomb, holed his government below the waterline. The 2008 Financial Crisis happened on Brown’s watch and the Conservatives successfully blamed him.
In early 2020 Johnson had the largest Conservative majority since the 1980s, Labour was undergoing a leadership contest and needed de-Corbynising, and then Covid struck. Without this there wouldn’t have been Partygate. The messy and introverted 2022 Johnson-Truss-Sunak succession bequeathed Sunak a poisoned chalice.
“Something will turn up” but things can only get worse
The final term tends to be five years as PMs become Mr Micawber. Attlee’s 1950 majority of five meant he went in 1951. 1959-64 isn’t a great example as Macmillan was replaced by Douglas-Home in 1963 due to ill health. Callaghan hung on, some suggest he might have won in Autumn 1978, until losing a vote of confidence, and an election, in 1979.
The real exception is Major in 1992 who had a year and a half to steady things, make a start on replacing the Community Charge and get on his soapbox.
After becoming Labour leader Blair increasingly set the agenda and Major forcing a leadership contest in 1995 made no difference. Had he then called an election and Sunak similarly after succeeding Truss they would have almost certainly lost, but probably by smaller margins.
Brown should have probably emulated Eden and called an election on succeeding Blair in 2007. He didn’t know the Financial Crisis was coming but a victory …
John Wall: The lessons of history for governments in trouble
What's the endgame here?
John Wall is a retired engineer and former Conservative county councillor in Hampshire.
According to Churchill: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Although Marx’s, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce,” might be more appropriate!
Consider the duration of governments we’ve had.
1945-1951: 6 (5+1) years Labour
1951-1964: 13 (4+4+5) years Conservative
1964-1979: 15 years Labour (2+4) + Conservative (4) + Labour (5)
1979-1997: 18 (4+4+5+5) years Conservative (13+5)
1997-2010: 13 (4+4+5) years Labour
2010-2024: 14 (5+2+2+5) years Conservative (including coalition with the LDs)
With a few exceptions this is essentially a series of three-term governments (2010-24 had two short terms), and these ended for multiple reasons.
“Events, dear boy, events!”
Shocks to the system, sometimes self-inflicted, can change the course of history.
The 1956 Suez Crisis finished Eden and he resigned citing ill-health. Wilson was expected to win in 1970 but, amongst other things, had a legacy from the 1967 devaluation and his poorly judged “pound in your pocket” speech.
The exception is the 1982 Falklands War. Failure would have probably finished Thatcher, but it’s one of her greatest legacies.
In 1992 Major was barely back in Downing Street when Black Wednesday, an inherited ticking time bomb, holed his government below the waterline. The 2008 Financial Crisis happened on Brown’s watch and the Conservatives successfully blamed him.
In early 2020 Johnson had the largest Conservative majority since the 1980s, Labour was undergoing a leadership contest and needed de-Corbynising, and then Covid struck. Without this there wouldn’t have been Partygate. The messy and introverted 2022 Johnson-Truss-Sunak succession bequeathed Sunak a poisoned chalice.
“Something will turn up” but things can only get worse
The final term tends to be five years as PMs become Mr Micawber. Attlee’s 1950 majority of five meant he went in 1951. 1959-64 isn’t a great example as Macmillan was replaced by Douglas-Home in 1963 due to ill health. Callaghan hung on, some suggest he might have won in Autumn 1978, until losing a vote of confidence, and an election, in 1979.
The real exception is Major in 1992 who had a year and a half to steady things, make a start on replacing the Community Charge and get on his soapbox.
After becoming Labour leader Blair increasingly set the agenda and Major forcing a leadership contest in 1995 made no difference. Had he then called an election and Sunak similarly after succeeding Truss they would have almost certainly lost, but probably by smaller margins.
Brown should have probably emulated Eden and called an election on succeeding Blair in 2007. He didn’t know the Financial Crisis was coming but a victory …
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