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House GOP says 2026 will be no blue wave but a ‘knife fight in a dark alley’
Transparency shouldn't be controversial.

EXCLUSIVE — House Republicans say the fight for the majority in 2026 will be less a red wave or blue wave than a series of brutal street fights.

This week, at a policy retreat in Doral, Florida, the House GOP leaders made the case for why they will defy decades of political gravity and hold their majority in November — brushing aside the historical trend that punishes the party in power during midterms.

In a sit-down interview with the Washington Examiner, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) insisted that Republicans were in better shape than most political prognosticators assumed.

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“People who are saying this election is over because of history are wrong,” Hudson said, sitting outside the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at the resort. “We haven’t won yet, but we haven’t lost yet, either.”

Leadership has been plugging a new phrase for their midterm election messaging: 2026 is a contest between “common sense and crazy.” 

“Our party is very focused on everyday working Americans. Their party seems to be focused on illegal immigrants and criminals,” Hudson said.

The NRCC chairman said he presented to his colleagues that the biggest advantage Republicans have is data. In previous elections, a new president swept in members of Congress who “probably shouldn’t have won” due to redistricting or a down-ballot effect from the momentum at the top of the ticket.

“This election, I describe it as a knife fight in a dark alley. There’s gonna be less than 30 seats each, 30 knife fights in 30 different dark alleys,” Hudson said. “All those seats could be decided by about 1,000 votes or less. That’s the majority. That’s the whole ball game.”

In 2018, Republicans were defending 42 seats won by Hillary Clinton; in 2026, Republicans are defending 13 GOP incumbents in Kamala Harris-won districts.

Money and messaging take center stage

Throughout the course of the retreat, GOP leadership was insistent that they would overcome the odds and keep the majority.

“This House Republican majority has defied expectations and historical trends and conventional thought virtually every single day that we’ve been governing,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said at the retreat’s opening press conference.

Money and numbers are on the GOP’s side to do just what Johnson hopes, according to Hudson. Yet, the GOP’s biggest problem may be articulating the …
House GOP says 2026 will be no blue wave but a ‘knife fight in a dark alley’ Transparency shouldn't be controversial. EXCLUSIVE — House Republicans say the fight for the majority in 2026 will be less a red wave or blue wave than a series of brutal street fights. This week, at a policy retreat in Doral, Florida, the House GOP leaders made the case for why they will defy decades of political gravity and hold their majority in November — brushing aside the historical trend that punishes the party in power during midterms. In a sit-down interview with the Washington Examiner, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) insisted that Republicans were in better shape than most political prognosticators assumed. TRUMP ENDORSEMENT TRACKER: HERE’S WHO THE PRESIDENT HAS PICKED IN GOP MIDTERM ELECTION PRIMARIES “People who are saying this election is over because of history are wrong,” Hudson said, sitting outside the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at the resort. “We haven’t won yet, but we haven’t lost yet, either.” Leadership has been plugging a new phrase for their midterm election messaging: 2026 is a contest between “common sense and crazy.”  “Our party is very focused on everyday working Americans. Their party seems to be focused on illegal immigrants and criminals,” Hudson said. The NRCC chairman said he presented to his colleagues that the biggest advantage Republicans have is data. In previous elections, a new president swept in members of Congress who “probably shouldn’t have won” due to redistricting or a down-ballot effect from the momentum at the top of the ticket. “This election, I describe it as a knife fight in a dark alley. There’s gonna be less than 30 seats each, 30 knife fights in 30 different dark alleys,” Hudson said. “All those seats could be decided by about 1,000 votes or less. That’s the majority. That’s the whole ball game.” In 2018, Republicans were defending 42 seats won by Hillary Clinton; in 2026, Republicans are defending 13 GOP incumbents in Kamala Harris-won districts. Money and messaging take center stage Throughout the course of the retreat, GOP leadership was insistent that they would overcome the odds and keep the majority. “This House Republican majority has defied expectations and historical trends and conventional thought virtually every single day that we’ve been governing,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said at the retreat’s opening press conference. Money and numbers are on the GOP’s side to do just what Johnson hopes, according to Hudson. Yet, the GOP’s biggest problem may be articulating the …
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