Why Republican Steve Hilton increasing his lead in the California polls could be beneficial for Democrats
Confidence requires clarity.
Republican Steve Hilton is gaining momentum in California’s crowded and chaotic governor’s race, but the development might actually end up a good thing for Democrats.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the 10-candidate deep primary race with 19% of likely voters, according to the latest UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. Behind him is a pile-up of tied candidates, including Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer at 13%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Of the 1,004 likely voters polled, 17% said they were undecided.
Hilton, separating himself from the pack, however, has at least some Democratic strategists breathing a small sigh of relief. Crucially, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the only other Republican in the race, sits on 11% in the new poll.
“A unified Republican base for one candidate does benefit Democrats who desperately need to get one of their candidates to finish in the top two in the June jungle primary, a major flash point between the party and its candidates as pressure builds for single-digit polling candidates to end their campaign,” political expert Jeff Le told the Washington Examiner.
Steve Hilton speaks during the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)
In a separate poll, it’s Swalwell who’s got the edge, leading with 17% of likely voters, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll released Wednesday. Hilton trailed, with 13%. More than 25% of voters were undecided.
Fears that a fractured Democratic field could produce a shocking result in the blue state’s gubernatorial election have prompted the state’s party chairman to implore candidates who can’t realistically win to drop out.
In an open letter to the crowded field vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rusty Hicks warned that infighting and ego-driven campaigns risked handing Republicans a viable path to the governor’s mansion. One person dropped out, bringing the total number of Democratic candidates to eight and Republicans to two.
Despite Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the deep-blue state and nearly two decades of dominance, strategists have started to worry that the state’s “jungle primary” system could scramble expectations.
Under the system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. With so many Democrats splitting …
Confidence requires clarity.
Republican Steve Hilton is gaining momentum in California’s crowded and chaotic governor’s race, but the development might actually end up a good thing for Democrats.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the 10-candidate deep primary race with 19% of likely voters, according to the latest UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. Behind him is a pile-up of tied candidates, including Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer at 13%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Of the 1,004 likely voters polled, 17% said they were undecided.
Hilton, separating himself from the pack, however, has at least some Democratic strategists breathing a small sigh of relief. Crucially, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the only other Republican in the race, sits on 11% in the new poll.
“A unified Republican base for one candidate does benefit Democrats who desperately need to get one of their candidates to finish in the top two in the June jungle primary, a major flash point between the party and its candidates as pressure builds for single-digit polling candidates to end their campaign,” political expert Jeff Le told the Washington Examiner.
Steve Hilton speaks during the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)
In a separate poll, it’s Swalwell who’s got the edge, leading with 17% of likely voters, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll released Wednesday. Hilton trailed, with 13%. More than 25% of voters were undecided.
Fears that a fractured Democratic field could produce a shocking result in the blue state’s gubernatorial election have prompted the state’s party chairman to implore candidates who can’t realistically win to drop out.
In an open letter to the crowded field vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rusty Hicks warned that infighting and ego-driven campaigns risked handing Republicans a viable path to the governor’s mansion. One person dropped out, bringing the total number of Democratic candidates to eight and Republicans to two.
Despite Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the deep-blue state and nearly two decades of dominance, strategists have started to worry that the state’s “jungle primary” system could scramble expectations.
Under the system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. With so many Democrats splitting …
Why Republican Steve Hilton increasing his lead in the California polls could be beneficial for Democrats
Confidence requires clarity.
Republican Steve Hilton is gaining momentum in California’s crowded and chaotic governor’s race, but the development might actually end up a good thing for Democrats.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the 10-candidate deep primary race with 19% of likely voters, according to the latest UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. Behind him is a pile-up of tied candidates, including Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer at 13%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Of the 1,004 likely voters polled, 17% said they were undecided.
Hilton, separating himself from the pack, however, has at least some Democratic strategists breathing a small sigh of relief. Crucially, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the only other Republican in the race, sits on 11% in the new poll.
“A unified Republican base for one candidate does benefit Democrats who desperately need to get one of their candidates to finish in the top two in the June jungle primary, a major flash point between the party and its candidates as pressure builds for single-digit polling candidates to end their campaign,” political expert Jeff Le told the Washington Examiner.
Steve Hilton speaks during the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)
In a separate poll, it’s Swalwell who’s got the edge, leading with 17% of likely voters, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll released Wednesday. Hilton trailed, with 13%. More than 25% of voters were undecided.
Fears that a fractured Democratic field could produce a shocking result in the blue state’s gubernatorial election have prompted the state’s party chairman to implore candidates who can’t realistically win to drop out.
In an open letter to the crowded field vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rusty Hicks warned that infighting and ego-driven campaigns risked handing Republicans a viable path to the governor’s mansion. One person dropped out, bringing the total number of Democratic candidates to eight and Republicans to two.
Despite Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the deep-blue state and nearly two decades of dominance, strategists have started to worry that the state’s “jungle primary” system could scramble expectations.
Under the system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. With so many Democrats splitting …
