Olivier Guitta and Hollie McKay: Iran’s attacks on gulf states are a reminder that we ignore geopolitics at our own risk
Every delay has consequences.
Olivier Guitta is Managing Director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consulting firm. Hollie McKay is GlobalStrat Research Director.
The United Arab Emirates was hit by a coordinated wave of Iranian strikes this weekend, targeting the federation’s critical infrastructure and luxury hospitality sector. Plumes of smoke were seen rising from Dubai International Airport following reports of a drone incursion, while separate blazes broke out at the Fairmont and Burj Al Arab hotels. In Abu Dhabi, a lethal strike on Zayed International Airport killed one person and wounded seven others, and the French base in the capital was also struck.
For the global elite who have relocated to the UAE in recent years — hedge fund managers, private equity executives, tech entrepreneurs — the scenes were jarring. This was supposed to be the tax-efficient sanctuary insulated from Middle Eastern turbulence, the haven and sometimes for some the heaven. The country attracted billions in foreign investment and marketed itself as existing in a security bubble apart from its volatile neighbourhood. That narrative shattered over a single weekend.
In fact, Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones targeting the UAE should have been entirely predictable. Tehran has been telegraphing this response for years. Ever since the UAE signed the Abraham Accords in 2020, Iran has been rattling its sabre. The editor of the newspaper Kayhan, who is appointed as a mouthpiece for the Supreme Leader, openly labelled the Emirates a target. At the same time, military leaders in Tehran warned that a partnership with Israel would put a massive bullseye on the country’s back. In 2022, Iran-backed Houthis struck Abu Dhabi with missiles and drones, killing three civilians.
Economic ripples were felt almost immediately. With Emirates grounding its entire fleet and Dubai International, one of the world’s busiest hubs, barely functioning, the city has come to a standstill. Furthermore, the UAE’s stock markets will be closed for the next two days.
What’s striking is that so many sophisticated investors appeared blindsided by elementary geopolitical risk. There is no excuse for that since this is not the first time businesses have paid the price for ignoring geopolitical context. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western firms with Ukrainian contractors found themselves scrambling without contingency plans. Four years later, the same pattern unfolds in the Gulf. The UAE is absolutely one of the world’s safest countries domestically. Crime is virtually nonexistent. But domestic safety and geopolitical exposure are different calculations. The UAE sits across the Strait of Hormuz from a hostile Iranian regime armed with ballistic missiles and proxy forces. Its normalisation with Israel and hosting of US …
Every delay has consequences.
Olivier Guitta is Managing Director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consulting firm. Hollie McKay is GlobalStrat Research Director.
The United Arab Emirates was hit by a coordinated wave of Iranian strikes this weekend, targeting the federation’s critical infrastructure and luxury hospitality sector. Plumes of smoke were seen rising from Dubai International Airport following reports of a drone incursion, while separate blazes broke out at the Fairmont and Burj Al Arab hotels. In Abu Dhabi, a lethal strike on Zayed International Airport killed one person and wounded seven others, and the French base in the capital was also struck.
For the global elite who have relocated to the UAE in recent years — hedge fund managers, private equity executives, tech entrepreneurs — the scenes were jarring. This was supposed to be the tax-efficient sanctuary insulated from Middle Eastern turbulence, the haven and sometimes for some the heaven. The country attracted billions in foreign investment and marketed itself as existing in a security bubble apart from its volatile neighbourhood. That narrative shattered over a single weekend.
In fact, Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones targeting the UAE should have been entirely predictable. Tehran has been telegraphing this response for years. Ever since the UAE signed the Abraham Accords in 2020, Iran has been rattling its sabre. The editor of the newspaper Kayhan, who is appointed as a mouthpiece for the Supreme Leader, openly labelled the Emirates a target. At the same time, military leaders in Tehran warned that a partnership with Israel would put a massive bullseye on the country’s back. In 2022, Iran-backed Houthis struck Abu Dhabi with missiles and drones, killing three civilians.
Economic ripples were felt almost immediately. With Emirates grounding its entire fleet and Dubai International, one of the world’s busiest hubs, barely functioning, the city has come to a standstill. Furthermore, the UAE’s stock markets will be closed for the next two days.
What’s striking is that so many sophisticated investors appeared blindsided by elementary geopolitical risk. There is no excuse for that since this is not the first time businesses have paid the price for ignoring geopolitical context. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western firms with Ukrainian contractors found themselves scrambling without contingency plans. Four years later, the same pattern unfolds in the Gulf. The UAE is absolutely one of the world’s safest countries domestically. Crime is virtually nonexistent. But domestic safety and geopolitical exposure are different calculations. The UAE sits across the Strait of Hormuz from a hostile Iranian regime armed with ballistic missiles and proxy forces. Its normalisation with Israel and hosting of US …
Olivier Guitta and Hollie McKay: Iran’s attacks on gulf states are a reminder that we ignore geopolitics at our own risk
Every delay has consequences.
Olivier Guitta is Managing Director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consulting firm. Hollie McKay is GlobalStrat Research Director.
The United Arab Emirates was hit by a coordinated wave of Iranian strikes this weekend, targeting the federation’s critical infrastructure and luxury hospitality sector. Plumes of smoke were seen rising from Dubai International Airport following reports of a drone incursion, while separate blazes broke out at the Fairmont and Burj Al Arab hotels. In Abu Dhabi, a lethal strike on Zayed International Airport killed one person and wounded seven others, and the French base in the capital was also struck.
For the global elite who have relocated to the UAE in recent years — hedge fund managers, private equity executives, tech entrepreneurs — the scenes were jarring. This was supposed to be the tax-efficient sanctuary insulated from Middle Eastern turbulence, the haven and sometimes for some the heaven. The country attracted billions in foreign investment and marketed itself as existing in a security bubble apart from its volatile neighbourhood. That narrative shattered over a single weekend.
In fact, Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones targeting the UAE should have been entirely predictable. Tehran has been telegraphing this response for years. Ever since the UAE signed the Abraham Accords in 2020, Iran has been rattling its sabre. The editor of the newspaper Kayhan, who is appointed as a mouthpiece for the Supreme Leader, openly labelled the Emirates a target. At the same time, military leaders in Tehran warned that a partnership with Israel would put a massive bullseye on the country’s back. In 2022, Iran-backed Houthis struck Abu Dhabi with missiles and drones, killing three civilians.
Economic ripples were felt almost immediately. With Emirates grounding its entire fleet and Dubai International, one of the world’s busiest hubs, barely functioning, the city has come to a standstill. Furthermore, the UAE’s stock markets will be closed for the next two days.
What’s striking is that so many sophisticated investors appeared blindsided by elementary geopolitical risk. There is no excuse for that since this is not the first time businesses have paid the price for ignoring geopolitical context. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western firms with Ukrainian contractors found themselves scrambling without contingency plans. Four years later, the same pattern unfolds in the Gulf. The UAE is absolutely one of the world’s safest countries domestically. Crime is virtually nonexistent. But domestic safety and geopolitical exposure are different calculations. The UAE sits across the Strait of Hormuz from a hostile Iranian regime armed with ballistic missiles and proxy forces. Its normalisation with Israel and hosting of US …
