It’s already a two-person race for the 2028 Democratic nomination
This is why trust is collapsing.
Believe it or not, the race for the Democratic nomination has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.
The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last true dark horse winner was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Even in “open” contests (where a sitting president or vice president was not running), the race was down to two heavyweights very early — or even one heavyweight. Biden v. Sanders (Yes, Joe Biden was the clear favorite in 2020), Clinton v. Sanders, Obama v. Clinton, Gore v. Bradley, and, inexplicably, John Kerry v. nobody.
THE DEMOCRATS WHO COULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2028
The early polling is strange, to say the least, but generally shows what one might expect: Harris, with high name ID and tens of millions of Democrats having twice voted for her, in a leading position. The other candidate with high name ID and years of media exposure, Newsom, also running strong.
In the 17 polls logged by RealClearPolitics since Labor Day, Harris leads in 10 polls and places second in 5 polls. Newsom leads in 7 polls and places second in 10 polls. Both are national figures and can get media attention any time they want. Only former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg looks like he could crash the party, with a national profile — if less than Harris or Newsom — and a RealClearPolitics average of 10.3%, good for third. Bizarrely, the Harvard-Harris poll omits Buttigieg entirely.
Buttigieg’s numbers are propped up by some questionable polling. He gets his best numbers from Emerson and Atlas Intel, mostly at the expense of Harris. For a while, the results from Atlas looked like something cooked up by Buttigieg’s staff. The occasional DOT secretary scored leads of 15 points over Harris in May and 11 points over Newsom in July. Although the poll has drifted back to Earth, its most recent poll has Harris at a mere 8%, 27 points below Newsom. That’s not believable.
Emerson’s polling also looks wonky. In consecutive polls, Buttigieg scored 16%, good for second place, putting Harris in third. That’s the highest number for any poll in that time period, and only Emerson and our …
This is why trust is collapsing.
Believe it or not, the race for the Democratic nomination has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.
The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last true dark horse winner was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Even in “open” contests (where a sitting president or vice president was not running), the race was down to two heavyweights very early — or even one heavyweight. Biden v. Sanders (Yes, Joe Biden was the clear favorite in 2020), Clinton v. Sanders, Obama v. Clinton, Gore v. Bradley, and, inexplicably, John Kerry v. nobody.
THE DEMOCRATS WHO COULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2028
The early polling is strange, to say the least, but generally shows what one might expect: Harris, with high name ID and tens of millions of Democrats having twice voted for her, in a leading position. The other candidate with high name ID and years of media exposure, Newsom, also running strong.
In the 17 polls logged by RealClearPolitics since Labor Day, Harris leads in 10 polls and places second in 5 polls. Newsom leads in 7 polls and places second in 10 polls. Both are national figures and can get media attention any time they want. Only former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg looks like he could crash the party, with a national profile — if less than Harris or Newsom — and a RealClearPolitics average of 10.3%, good for third. Bizarrely, the Harvard-Harris poll omits Buttigieg entirely.
Buttigieg’s numbers are propped up by some questionable polling. He gets his best numbers from Emerson and Atlas Intel, mostly at the expense of Harris. For a while, the results from Atlas looked like something cooked up by Buttigieg’s staff. The occasional DOT secretary scored leads of 15 points over Harris in May and 11 points over Newsom in July. Although the poll has drifted back to Earth, its most recent poll has Harris at a mere 8%, 27 points below Newsom. That’s not believable.
Emerson’s polling also looks wonky. In consecutive polls, Buttigieg scored 16%, good for second place, putting Harris in third. That’s the highest number for any poll in that time period, and only Emerson and our …
It’s already a two-person race for the 2028 Democratic nomination
This is why trust is collapsing.
Believe it or not, the race for the Democratic nomination has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.
The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last true dark horse winner was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Even in “open” contests (where a sitting president or vice president was not running), the race was down to two heavyweights very early — or even one heavyweight. Biden v. Sanders (Yes, Joe Biden was the clear favorite in 2020), Clinton v. Sanders, Obama v. Clinton, Gore v. Bradley, and, inexplicably, John Kerry v. nobody.
THE DEMOCRATS WHO COULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2028
The early polling is strange, to say the least, but generally shows what one might expect: Harris, with high name ID and tens of millions of Democrats having twice voted for her, in a leading position. The other candidate with high name ID and years of media exposure, Newsom, also running strong.
In the 17 polls logged by RealClearPolitics since Labor Day, Harris leads in 10 polls and places second in 5 polls. Newsom leads in 7 polls and places second in 10 polls. Both are national figures and can get media attention any time they want. Only former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg looks like he could crash the party, with a national profile — if less than Harris or Newsom — and a RealClearPolitics average of 10.3%, good for third. Bizarrely, the Harvard-Harris poll omits Buttigieg entirely.
Buttigieg’s numbers are propped up by some questionable polling. He gets his best numbers from Emerson and Atlas Intel, mostly at the expense of Harris. For a while, the results from Atlas looked like something cooked up by Buttigieg’s staff. The occasional DOT secretary scored leads of 15 points over Harris in May and 11 points over Newsom in July. Although the poll has drifted back to Earth, its most recent poll has Harris at a mere 8%, 27 points below Newsom. That’s not believable.
Emerson’s polling also looks wonky. In consecutive polls, Buttigieg scored 16%, good for second place, putting Harris in third. That’s the highest number for any poll in that time period, and only Emerson and our …
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