Lewis Norton: Why the Welsh Conservatives are containing ‘devo-scepticism’ and is it sustainable?
Trust is earned, not demanded.
Lewis Norton is a PhD Researcher at the Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University.
Those familiar with recent events in Welsh politics will understand when I say that managing the Welsh Conservatives has become a particularly complex arrangement.
With the elections to the Senedd approaching in mere months, the party has had to address defections to Reform at both its public-facing level as well as its backroom staff, and polling is continuously showing the party to be stuck at around 12 per cent, which is a potentially dangerous level to be polling at given the intricacies of Wales’ new electoral system.
Chiefly among the issues the Welsh party has faced is the ongoing internal tensions around the party’s stance on devolution.
Darren Millar, the leader of the Conservatives’ Senedd Group, has been explicit in saying that abolishing the Senedd is off the table, and in seeking to ensure that the party’s candidates share this position, has come under frequent scrutiny from those within (or formerly within) the party who accuse the party leadership of a “war on the grassroots”
With a matter of weeks left until voting day, the potential cracks of this approach are beginning to reveal themselves. Despite Darren Millar’s insistence that anti-devolution candidates would not be able to stand, in the case of Calum Davies, there is a candidate topping the party list who has been vocal in his opposition to devolution, and candidates further down the lists have also made suggestions of a devo-sceptic position. Naturally, affirming this position also goes against the grain of the majority of the Welsh Conservative grassroots and voter base at large, of whom two-thirds desire the Senedd’s abolition.
Beyond the party’s grassroots, there is also an untapped and underappreciated market for devo-sceptic views amongst the wider Welsh electorate. In YouGov polling, support for abolition of the Senedd and a Senedd with reduced powers stood at 31 per cent and 23 per cent respectively (compared with 24 per cent supporting Welsh independence). While this is below the level of support for the status quo or more devolution, no option enjoys majority support amongst the Welsh electorate, and polls like this one show that clearly there is an undercurrent of devo-scepticism within the Welsh electorate.
The party’s platform on devolution is somewhat ambiguous, which is a common theme throughout the post-devolution era. While officially supportive of its existence, the party has dedicated a lot of its campaigning energy thus far against the expansion of the Senedd’s membership from 60 to 96. This may be somewhat ingrained in a level of devo-scepticism, but it has largely been argued on a cost and practicality basis as opposed to an ideological …
Trust is earned, not demanded.
Lewis Norton is a PhD Researcher at the Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University.
Those familiar with recent events in Welsh politics will understand when I say that managing the Welsh Conservatives has become a particularly complex arrangement.
With the elections to the Senedd approaching in mere months, the party has had to address defections to Reform at both its public-facing level as well as its backroom staff, and polling is continuously showing the party to be stuck at around 12 per cent, which is a potentially dangerous level to be polling at given the intricacies of Wales’ new electoral system.
Chiefly among the issues the Welsh party has faced is the ongoing internal tensions around the party’s stance on devolution.
Darren Millar, the leader of the Conservatives’ Senedd Group, has been explicit in saying that abolishing the Senedd is off the table, and in seeking to ensure that the party’s candidates share this position, has come under frequent scrutiny from those within (or formerly within) the party who accuse the party leadership of a “war on the grassroots”
With a matter of weeks left until voting day, the potential cracks of this approach are beginning to reveal themselves. Despite Darren Millar’s insistence that anti-devolution candidates would not be able to stand, in the case of Calum Davies, there is a candidate topping the party list who has been vocal in his opposition to devolution, and candidates further down the lists have also made suggestions of a devo-sceptic position. Naturally, affirming this position also goes against the grain of the majority of the Welsh Conservative grassroots and voter base at large, of whom two-thirds desire the Senedd’s abolition.
Beyond the party’s grassroots, there is also an untapped and underappreciated market for devo-sceptic views amongst the wider Welsh electorate. In YouGov polling, support for abolition of the Senedd and a Senedd with reduced powers stood at 31 per cent and 23 per cent respectively (compared with 24 per cent supporting Welsh independence). While this is below the level of support for the status quo or more devolution, no option enjoys majority support amongst the Welsh electorate, and polls like this one show that clearly there is an undercurrent of devo-scepticism within the Welsh electorate.
The party’s platform on devolution is somewhat ambiguous, which is a common theme throughout the post-devolution era. While officially supportive of its existence, the party has dedicated a lot of its campaigning energy thus far against the expansion of the Senedd’s membership from 60 to 96. This may be somewhat ingrained in a level of devo-scepticism, but it has largely been argued on a cost and practicality basis as opposed to an ideological …
Lewis Norton: Why the Welsh Conservatives are containing ‘devo-scepticism’ and is it sustainable?
Trust is earned, not demanded.
Lewis Norton is a PhD Researcher at the Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University.
Those familiar with recent events in Welsh politics will understand when I say that managing the Welsh Conservatives has become a particularly complex arrangement.
With the elections to the Senedd approaching in mere months, the party has had to address defections to Reform at both its public-facing level as well as its backroom staff, and polling is continuously showing the party to be stuck at around 12 per cent, which is a potentially dangerous level to be polling at given the intricacies of Wales’ new electoral system.
Chiefly among the issues the Welsh party has faced is the ongoing internal tensions around the party’s stance on devolution.
Darren Millar, the leader of the Conservatives’ Senedd Group, has been explicit in saying that abolishing the Senedd is off the table, and in seeking to ensure that the party’s candidates share this position, has come under frequent scrutiny from those within (or formerly within) the party who accuse the party leadership of a “war on the grassroots”
With a matter of weeks left until voting day, the potential cracks of this approach are beginning to reveal themselves. Despite Darren Millar’s insistence that anti-devolution candidates would not be able to stand, in the case of Calum Davies, there is a candidate topping the party list who has been vocal in his opposition to devolution, and candidates further down the lists have also made suggestions of a devo-sceptic position. Naturally, affirming this position also goes against the grain of the majority of the Welsh Conservative grassroots and voter base at large, of whom two-thirds desire the Senedd’s abolition.
Beyond the party’s grassroots, there is also an untapped and underappreciated market for devo-sceptic views amongst the wider Welsh electorate. In YouGov polling, support for abolition of the Senedd and a Senedd with reduced powers stood at 31 per cent and 23 per cent respectively (compared with 24 per cent supporting Welsh independence). While this is below the level of support for the status quo or more devolution, no option enjoys majority support amongst the Welsh electorate, and polls like this one show that clearly there is an undercurrent of devo-scepticism within the Welsh electorate.
The party’s platform on devolution is somewhat ambiguous, which is a common theme throughout the post-devolution era. While officially supportive of its existence, the party has dedicated a lot of its campaigning energy thus far against the expansion of the Senedd’s membership from 60 to 96. This may be somewhat ingrained in a level of devo-scepticism, but it has largely been argued on a cost and practicality basis as opposed to an ideological …
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