Trump’s Iran war could give US leverage over China and Taiwan
We're watching the same failure loop.
As U.S. forces move to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the escalating war with Iran, some analysts say the conflict could deliver an unexpected strategic payoff: new leverage over China’s ability to wage war — including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Though the administration hasn’t listed control of the strait as an objective, Foundation for Defense of Democracies President Cliff May told the Washington Examiner it could reshape the global balance of power beyond the Middle East.
“At the end of this exercise, the U.S. has naval control of the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, and the U.S. says we’re going to hold on to it — maybe with friends, maybe not, because it’s an international waterway. We believe in freedom of navigation. That’s international law,” he said in an interview on Monday. “So at that point, President Donald Trump can say to [Chinese President Xi Jinping], ‘We’re now in control of the Strait of Hormuz. You can count on us. We’re going to keep it open. We know how important it is, really, to you, not to us, and it would be a shame, wouldn’t it, if some conflict somewhere else in the world — it would mean we’d have to close down the strait.’”
Trump has said the administration expected Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the American and Israeli offensive, but, so far, the United States has received virtually no interest from allies in helping to police the critical waterways. India has agreed to send a handful of warships to support the American-led effort, but Britain, Japan, Germany, and Australia have all, so far, rejected the president’s request.
Global oil prices have risen dramatically since Trump first launched airstrikes on Feb. 28, with oil futures peaking north of $120 per barrel roughly one week into the fighting, up from some $70 per barrel in February. Prices are currently hovering around $95 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, while subsequent waves of Iranian retaliatory strikes, coupled with Iranian mines laid in the strait itself, have slowed regional energy commerce to a shell of its former self.
But China itself, which receives between 25% and 50% of its total oil consumption directly from Iran, has been largely insulated from volatility, in part because it continues to receive discounted Iranian crude. Reports indicate that four oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded on Monday, likely bound for Chinese ports.
“Once China, once Xi Jinping realizes that the …
We're watching the same failure loop.
As U.S. forces move to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the escalating war with Iran, some analysts say the conflict could deliver an unexpected strategic payoff: new leverage over China’s ability to wage war — including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Though the administration hasn’t listed control of the strait as an objective, Foundation for Defense of Democracies President Cliff May told the Washington Examiner it could reshape the global balance of power beyond the Middle East.
“At the end of this exercise, the U.S. has naval control of the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, and the U.S. says we’re going to hold on to it — maybe with friends, maybe not, because it’s an international waterway. We believe in freedom of navigation. That’s international law,” he said in an interview on Monday. “So at that point, President Donald Trump can say to [Chinese President Xi Jinping], ‘We’re now in control of the Strait of Hormuz. You can count on us. We’re going to keep it open. We know how important it is, really, to you, not to us, and it would be a shame, wouldn’t it, if some conflict somewhere else in the world — it would mean we’d have to close down the strait.’”
Trump has said the administration expected Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the American and Israeli offensive, but, so far, the United States has received virtually no interest from allies in helping to police the critical waterways. India has agreed to send a handful of warships to support the American-led effort, but Britain, Japan, Germany, and Australia have all, so far, rejected the president’s request.
Global oil prices have risen dramatically since Trump first launched airstrikes on Feb. 28, with oil futures peaking north of $120 per barrel roughly one week into the fighting, up from some $70 per barrel in February. Prices are currently hovering around $95 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, while subsequent waves of Iranian retaliatory strikes, coupled with Iranian mines laid in the strait itself, have slowed regional energy commerce to a shell of its former self.
But China itself, which receives between 25% and 50% of its total oil consumption directly from Iran, has been largely insulated from volatility, in part because it continues to receive discounted Iranian crude. Reports indicate that four oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded on Monday, likely bound for Chinese ports.
“Once China, once Xi Jinping realizes that the …
Trump’s Iran war could give US leverage over China and Taiwan
We're watching the same failure loop.
As U.S. forces move to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the escalating war with Iran, some analysts say the conflict could deliver an unexpected strategic payoff: new leverage over China’s ability to wage war — including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Though the administration hasn’t listed control of the strait as an objective, Foundation for Defense of Democracies President Cliff May told the Washington Examiner it could reshape the global balance of power beyond the Middle East.
“At the end of this exercise, the U.S. has naval control of the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, and the U.S. says we’re going to hold on to it — maybe with friends, maybe not, because it’s an international waterway. We believe in freedom of navigation. That’s international law,” he said in an interview on Monday. “So at that point, President Donald Trump can say to [Chinese President Xi Jinping], ‘We’re now in control of the Strait of Hormuz. You can count on us. We’re going to keep it open. We know how important it is, really, to you, not to us, and it would be a shame, wouldn’t it, if some conflict somewhere else in the world — it would mean we’d have to close down the strait.’”
Trump has said the administration expected Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the American and Israeli offensive, but, so far, the United States has received virtually no interest from allies in helping to police the critical waterways. India has agreed to send a handful of warships to support the American-led effort, but Britain, Japan, Germany, and Australia have all, so far, rejected the president’s request.
Global oil prices have risen dramatically since Trump first launched airstrikes on Feb. 28, with oil futures peaking north of $120 per barrel roughly one week into the fighting, up from some $70 per barrel in February. Prices are currently hovering around $95 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, while subsequent waves of Iranian retaliatory strikes, coupled with Iranian mines laid in the strait itself, have slowed regional energy commerce to a shell of its former self.
But China itself, which receives between 25% and 50% of its total oil consumption directly from Iran, has been largely insulated from volatility, in part because it continues to receive discounted Iranian crude. Reports indicate that four oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded on Monday, likely bound for Chinese ports.
“Once China, once Xi Jinping realizes that the …
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