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DHS shutdown explained: Who works without pay, what happens to airports and disaster response
This is performative politics again.

A partial government shutdown is all but certain after Senate Democrats rejected attempts to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) offered by Republicans on Thursday afternoon.
But it will not look like the record-long 43-day full shutdown that paralyzed Congress last year, nor will it look like the shorter four-day partial shutdown that hit Capitol Hill earlier this month. That’s because Congress has already funded roughly 97% of the government through the end of fiscal year (FY) 2026 on Sept. 30.
When the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 14, just DHS will be affected by a lapse in its federal funding. While it’s a vastly smaller scale than other recent fiscal fights, it will still have an impact on a broad range of issues given DHS’s wide jurisdiction.
SCHUMER, DEMS CHOOSE PARTIAL SHUTDOWN AS NEGOTIATIONS HIT IMPASSE
Disruptions to the TSA, whose agents are responsible for security checks at nearly 440 airports across the country, could perhaps be the most impactful part of the partial shutdown to Americans’ everyday lives.
Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told lawmakers at a hearing on Wednesday that around 95% of TSA employees — roughly 61,000 people — are deemed essential and will be forced to work without pay in the event of a shutdown.
McNeill said many TSA agents were still recovering from the effects of the recent 43-day shutdown. "We heard reports of officers sleeping in their cars at airports to save money on gas, selling their blood and plasma, and taking on second jobs to make ends meet," she said.
TSA paychecks due to be issued on March 3 could see agents getting reduced pay depending on the length of the shutdown. Agents would not be at risk of missing a full paycheck until March 17.
If that happens, however, Americans could see delays or even cancellations at the country’s busiest airports as TSA agents are forced to call out of work and get second jobs to make ends meet.
SHUTDOWN CLOCK TICKS AS SCHUMER, DEMOCRATS DIG IN ON DHS FUNDING DEMANDS
The U.S. Coast Guard is the only branch of the Armed Forces under DHS rather than the Department of War, and as such would likely see reduced operations during a shutdown.
That includes a pause in training for pilots, air crews, and boat crews until funding is restarted.
Admiral Thomas Allan, Coast Guard Vice Commandant, warned lawmakers that it would have to "suspend all missions, except those for national security or the protection of life and property."
A lapse in its funding would also result in suspended pay for 56,000 active duty, reserve, and civilian personnel, …

Lower courts undermine Trump’s appeals court win on immigration detention
This isn't complicated—it's willpower.

Lower court judges are finding ways to order the release of illegal immigrants apprehended by the Trump administration, despite a critical appeals court ruling that affirmed the administration’s detention policy.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit handed the administration that major victory late last week, when a panel ruled 2-1 in favor of the administration’s illegal immigrant mandatory detention policy, rejecting claims by opponents of the administration that bond hearings are required for undocumented immigrants. While it was the highest court to greenlight the administration’s policy of keeping illegal immigrants in detention during their deportation proceedings, the 5th Circuit’s rulings only bind judicial districts in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

Even so, lower court judges in those states have still crafted orders for the release of illegal immigrants in an effort to skirt the appeals court’s ruling.

Working around the 5th Circuit’s ruling

Despite the win for the administration at the appellate level, some district court judges under the 5th Circuit have still found other ways to attempt to justify releasing illegal immigrants from detention. U.S. District Judges Kathleen Cardone and David Briones have both issued orders since the 5th Circuit’s Friday ruling, seemingly skirting the finding that the mandatory detention policy is lawful.

Briones said illegal immigrants and noncitizens who have been in the country for longer periods of time should be exempt from the mandatory detention policy.

“The Court reiterates its original holding that noncitizens who have ‘established connections’ in the United States by virtue of living in the country for a substantial period acquire a liberty interest in being free from government detention without due process of law,” Briones said in a Monday order.

“Because the Government released Petitioner and permitted him to live in the United States for over a year, they cannot revoke that liberty without an individualized determination of the need to do so,” the ruling reads.

Both federal judges cited constitutional due process rights as the rationale for releasing the illegal immigrants from indefinite detention. The rulings claim the 5th Circuit’s finding last week does not affect their previous holdings — something legal experts do not believe will hold up under scrutiny.

“Good luck with that,” Andrew Arthur, the Center for Immigration’s resident fellow in law and policy, told the …

Daniel Pitt: Conservative statecraft and party renewal are old ideas but there’s a lot we can learn from them
Why resist verification?

Dr Daniel Pitt is an Honorary Fellow at the University of Buckingham. 

Conservative statecraft is an old idea, the time for which has come again.

Taking a long view of our present discontents can help us understand them. Reflecting on historical events and great figures of our past can provide us with a map of sorts to move forward.

Deep reading and reflection were foundational to the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury’s political action. To be a bit more philosophical here, diving into our history can provide that metaphorical bridge between the generations. Indeed, building and restoring such a bridge is at the heart of conservative statecraft. This excavation of the past can build trust and form a type of social membership, and of course, the repudiation of it can and does create distrust and social alienation, which is why the woke left attacks our history.

The past is not a dead weight to be liberated from.

The Conservative Party’s history is a long and adventurous story that is punctuated by great success and, yes, failure. Or to quote a former Conservative Leader and Prime Minister, Arthur Balfour, history “is of blood and tears, of helpless blundering, of wild revolt, of stupid acquiescence, of empty aspirations.” This can be said about our party too. Conservative statecraft must draw from the party’s failures and successes. The late Joan Hall, a former Conservative MP for Keighley, said, “I can cope with failure and come back fighting.”

Indeed, Hall was a fighter and was nicknamed ‘the Yorkshire Valkyrie’; her sheer force of personality ensured that she came back fighting, but this can also be said of her party. The secret to the party’s success, I suggest, is its ability to come back fighting after failure. This is sometimes articulated as the party’s willingness to change and adapt to the times.

The party benefits greatly from the body of thought that shares its name. As the great Edmund Burke noted, in order to conserve, there needs to be some change. The dilemma for conservative intellectuals, as well as statesmen, is to discern the permanent from the transitory or the vital from the trivial. To assist in this dilemma, as Sir Winston Churchill suggested, we should ‘study history’ because ‘in history lie all the secrets of statecraft’. In my view, a conservative statesman is a person who has discernment on such matters and understands when the party needs to go through renewal and revitalisation. Now is such a time.

The core fundamental of conservative statecraft is about renewing the party whilst in Opposition to win elections and to be ready for government. Spending the party’s political capital on defending one’s record in Government, whether it is positive, negative or a mixed bag, is not the best way to spend it. Stephen Sherbourne, …

Trump’s $12B rare earth plan targets China as experts warn US is ‘one crisis away’
Be honest—this is ridiculous.

EXCLUSIVE: Industry experts warn the United States is "one crisis away" from losing access to the rare earth elements that power everything from fighter jets to electric vehicles — a vulnerability President Donald Trump’s new $12 billion "Project Vault" aims to address.
The initiative, backed by $1.67 billion in private seed money and a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank, would create a federally supported stockpile of rare earth elements and other critical minerals. The U.S. currently imports much of those materials from China.
Executives from Graphite One, one of the country’s largest critical mineral developers, told Fox News Digital the effort could mark a turning point in the battle over China’s dominance of global supply chains.
"The Chinese are willing to weaponize access to … semiconductor materials like gallium and uranium," Graphite One advisor Dan McGroarty said. "Then they turn off the tap and sort things out, give us a one-year reprieve, you know, it’s a leash and they can yank that leash anytime they want."
TRUMP SAYS 'YOU’LL SEE' WHEN ASKED HOW FAR HE’LL GO ON GREENLAND TAKEOVER
CEO Anthony Huston compared the concept to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, established after the 1970s oil crisis to safeguard U.S. energy security, arguing that critical minerals now play a similarly vital role in powering modern defense systems, advanced electronics and electric vehicles.
"For years, American businesses have risked running out of critical minerals during market disruptions… Project Vault [will] ensure that American businesses and workers are never harmed by any shortage," Trump said in his announcement last month.
Graphite One recently made news with its "truly generational" Graphite Creek site in Alaska, which is the U.S.’ largest asset of that particular critical mineral, in Huston’s words.
As of 2024, the U.S. was at least 93% import-dependent on rare earth elements and graphite, according to the International Energy Agency, and remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers for dozens of other critical minerals.
TRUMP KNOWS GOOD REAL ESTATE — AND HE KNOWS GREENLAND'S VALUE TO NATIONAL SECURITY
"The United States really relies on China and Africa for graphite. China, as we understand, is our adversary," Huston said.
A buried lede in the Project Vault news, he added, is a little-reported counter-terror aspect.
Huston said some African mineral deposits, including in parts of Mozambique, are located in areas where ISIS-linked groups have operated. By onshoring development of critical minerals, the U.S. will not only work to unseat …

Why it could take weeks to feel the brunt of a DHS shutdown
Who's accountable for the results?

The Department of Homeland Security’s broad reach means that everything from disaster relief to airport security could be hampered if funding runs out on Saturday, but it might take weeks before the public feels the impact.

The dispute over how to reform the agency, sparked by the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last month, centers on immigration enforcement. But swept up in negotiations are several sub-departments responsible for critical national security functions, including the Coast Guard and Secret Service.

The White House is negotiating a set of guardrails that congressional Democrats want to place on the tactics used by Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The two sides are still far apart, however, and Democrats are refusing to keep DHS limping along with a temporary funding patch.

CAR STOP-START SYSTEMS MAY GO AWAY THANKS TO TRUMP DEREGULATION

The impasse means that DHS is expected to enter a shutdown on Friday at midnight, forcing the agency to conserve resources and keep only essential personnel working. Still, the administration has access to rainy day funds and time to spare before paychecks go out for thousands of employees.

Immigration enforcement, meanwhile, will continue to operate due to billions of dollars set aside in President Donald Trump’s tax law last year.

Lawmakers left town for a week-long recess on Thursday after Senate Democrats blocked an attempt to pass DHS funding, but they could be called back on short notice should a deal with the White House come together.

Testifying before the House on Wednesday, the leaders of various DHS agencies warned that another shutdown risks eroding trust with the public and an uptick in federal employees quitting, whether the lapse in funding is short or not.

Delayed impact

The political risk of a shutdown is currently low in large part because paychecks don’t go out until mid-March for Transportation Security Administration employees who safeguard the nation’s airports. Canceled flights and long wait times became a major pressure point for lawmakers last fall, when the federal government shuttered for a record 43 days.

JOE CONCHA: AN INCONVENIENT FACT CHECK: AL GORE’S INCONVENIENT TRUTH ON ITS 20TH ANNIVERSARY

The administration also has contingency funds it has tapped before and could do so again.

Members of the Coast Guard, the only branch of the military that falls under DHS, received a paycheck in October, even without DHS funding. A similar …

Second round of February Social Security payments goes out in five days
Same show, different day.

The second round of February Social Security payments for retirees, now capped at $5,108, will be issued in five days.

When will payments arrive?

Retirees born between the 11th and 20th of a month will receive this payment on Feb. 18. 

The first round went out on Feb. 11 to recipients born on or before the 10th of a month, and the third round will be paid on Feb. 25 to those born on or after the 21st of a month.

When am I eligible?

Citizens are eligible for Social Security payments beginning at 62 years old.

How can I maximize my check?

Social Security payment amounts are determined by several factors, including age of retirement, the amount paid into Social Security, and the number of years paid into Social Security.

Payments largely depend on a recipient’s retirement age. A beneficiary retiring at the youngest age could receive up to $2,831 per month, while a 70-year-old retiree could receive up to $5,108 per month, according to the Social Security Administration.

Beneficiaries can see a personalized estimate of how much they could expect each month using the SSA’s calculator.

DC WARNS OF MEASLES EXPOSURE DURING MARCH FOR LIFE AS NATIONAL CASES CLIMB

How is it financed?

Social Security is financed by a payroll tax paid for by employers and employees.

Social Security payment amounts are set to shrink unless Congress takes action to prevent it. Analysts estimate that the SSA will no longer be able to issue full payments as early as 2034, due to a rising number of retirees and a shrinking workforce.

Democrats bet kitchen-table issues can blunt GOP money advantage
What's the endgame here?

Democrats are betting affordability messaging and Trump’s sagging approval numbers can help the party flip at least one chamber of Congress in November despite facing a significant fundraising deficit.

The Republican National Committee has vastly out-raised the Democratic National Committee by the end of 2025, according to filings from the Federal Election Commission. The RNC ended 2025 with $95 million in cash on hand, in contrast to the DNC, which ended the year with only $14 million and $17.5 million in debt.

MAGA Inc., a super PAC aligned with Trump, ended 2025 with $304 million cash on hand, a staggering sum for a president who is constitutionally barred from running for president in 2028. Although the super PAC has not publicly announced its specific plans on how to boost Republican candidates running for office this year, the money could help the GOP defy history.

CAR STOP-START SYSTEMS MAY GO AWAY THANKS TO TRUMP DEREGULATION

The Supreme Court could also add to Democratic woes if it strikes down federal law barring political parties from coordinating with individual candidates on campaign advertising.

But despite the steep money gaps, Democrats, who have homed in on the continued economic pain the average family is enduring as part of their off-year campaign strategies, are hoping that messaging on pocketbook issues can overcome their financial problems in 2026.

“As long as Democrats focus on bringing prices down and criticizing Trump for his failed promise to bring prices down on day one of the second administration, as long as we keep focused on that message and get our voters out, we’ll do fine in the midterm elections,” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist. “I’ll take the enthusiasm over money any day.”

Fundraising for individual candidates is more spread across the board. An analysis by OpenSecrets showed Republicans have the financial advantage in competitive House seats, while Democrats have the financial advantage in key Senate races.

“When you look at the party numbers, they’re not favorable to Democrats. But if you look at what candidates and individuals are raising, somebody like James Talarico just raised something like over $7 million,” said Kaivan Shroff, a 2024 delegate for former Vice President Kamala Harris. “And that’s just the primary, from a lot of a high number of different donors, which matters a lot too.”

Talarico raised more than $7.4 million in the first six weeks of 2026 in his Texas Senate primary race …

March Social Security direct payment worth $994 goes out in 14 days
This feels like a quiet policy shift.

The March 2026 Supplemental Security Income payments, worth up to $994, will be issued to recipients in two weeks.

SSI payments are typically issued on the first day of each month, but March’s payment will go out on Feb. 27, since March 1 falls on a Sunday this year. When the first of the month falls on a weekend or holiday, SSI payments are issued on the last business day of the previous month.

Beneficiaries are people with limited income who are either blind, aged 65 and older, or have a qualifying disability.

The amount beneficiaries receive varies based on several factors, including the number of people filing. For example, individual filers can receive up to $994, couples filing jointly can receive $1,491, and those providing essential care to SSI recipients can receive up to $498. 

In addition to the previous prerequisites for receiving SSI payments, recipients must also be U.S. citizens or noncitizens in one of the alien classifications granted by the Department of Homeland Security.

NEW YORK CITY SOCIAL SERVICES HEAD RESIGNS AS 18 PEOPLE DIED FROM COLD WEATHER

Additionally, recipients must live in one of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, or the Northern Mariana Islands, and must not be absent from the United States for a full calendar month or 30 consecutive days.

A full calendar for the Social Security Administration payments can be viewed on the agency’s website.

Bernard Argente: Badenoch needs to ask herself whether her MPs trust her or she distrusts her MPs
Who's accountable for the results?

Bernard Argente writer, student, and parliamentary researcher who assisted Richard Tice and his staff.

What happens when a politician defects to another party? Or perhaps a more apt question to ask may be: does such a politician have a choice?

In the case of former Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick, he may have played the part of the Roman politician Brutus in the veritable play of this Parliament’s debacle.

After being sacked by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick defected to Reform UK last month, leaving the vast majority of Kemi’s cabinet with the sentiment: Et tu, Jenrick?

But did he orchestrate it, or did the morning sacking entail a predestined chain of events?

Oedipus Rex by Sophocles tells the story of an ill-fated protagonist, Oedipus, who unwittingly fulfils a prophecy, ergo killing his father. In our scenario, our central figure, Robert Jenrick, has rebelled against his leader, which may have been a response to the sacking, which functioned as a catalyst to a series of events which turned to realise Badenoch’s qualms.

Had the Leader of the Opposition not doubted her Secretary, Reform might not have received another heretic in its arsenal. It is imperative for the Conservative Party, with its policy of curtailing turncoats, not to ostracize suspected members as if it were a witch hunt.

The Conservative Party has flourished hitherto Benjamin Disraeli in its conglomerated and immovable community, in which it cannot be compartmentalized. Notwithstanding, the vitality of the Conservatives is indirectly proportional to Reform’s.

Members must not stay neutral, as it would be like when the angels of God who chose to remain neutral were banished to the Antechamber, as Dante’s Vergil put it: “These are individuals who refused to take a stand in life, choosing neither good nor evil.”

The Conservatives will never need Reform, even when it ostensibly seems that way. It is, however, Reform that needs the Conservatives! Just as in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four the Ministry of Truth tried to change historical records and newspapers, Reform’s ex-Tory MPs will try to hide their past tweets lambasting Reform leader Nigel Farage, but the truth will remain static and the same.

“Britain is not broken”, wrote Kemi as a riposte to Jenrick’s statements. The leader of the Opposition has made this loss appear to be a victory akin to removing a parasite leeching off a host, but to Farage he has interpreted this as another man’s trash is another man’s treasure!

Whilst Badenoch had indeed been acting reflexively to ‘damning reports’ on Jenrick, it predicted a wave of other prominent Conservative MPs following Jenrick in kind, notably Andrew Rosindell, who defected to Reform UK primarily due to what he believes to be Chagos deal …

TACO or tactical? Trump’s threats risk obscuring his results
Who's accountable for the results?

President Donald Trump’s critics say he follows a predictable cycle: sow chaos, issue sweeping threats, and then retreat under pressure. The left has even coined a nickname — TACO, or “Trump Always Chickens Out.” But supporters argue what looks like retreat is often tactical recalibration.

Supporters say that Trump is scoring wins and ensuring both domestic political opponents and international allies make concessions. Trump has always used “disruption and chaos as a negotiating tool,” according to Republican strategist Cesar Conda.

“He creates uncertainty on purpose, sees how the other side reacts when they’re uncomfortable, and then adjusts his next move from a position of strength,” Conda told the Washington Examiner. “I think what looks like chaos from the outside is often very intentional — it keeps people guessing and forces them to negotiate on his terms.”

Yet, those accomplishments do not always register because the same tactics Trump uses to get results — threats and bluster — inflate the stakes and provide opponents with the opportunity to downplay concessions, while pointing to Trump’s own retreat from maximalization.

“Because negotiating partners are uncertain about how Trump will actually respond, they often hedge their bets or comply in order to minimize maximum regret,” Costas Panagopoulos, a Northeastern University political science professor, told the Washington Examiner. “Unpredictability can sometimes breed compliance and concessions.”

While it is difficult to ascertain how intentional Trump’s “disruption and chaos” are, the public response is more clear.

For example, the shooting deaths of anti-ICE protesters Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minnesota in January were captured on camera. The recordings ricocheted around the world and prompted demonstrations from Minneapolis to Milan, host of the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics. They also led to a drop in Trump’s average approval rating from 44% to42% in mere days, according to RealClearPolitics.

The public pressure caused Trump to dispatch border czar Tom Homan to Minnesota for a “softer touch.” Homan on Thursday announced the president had approved the drawdown of about 3,000 federal immigration law enforcement officers from Minnesota after two-and-a-half months on the ground.

Democrats contended Trump ending the surge of immigration officers was an example of the president caving.

“Minnesotans stood together, stared down ICE, and never blinked,” said Sen. …